国际贸易(克鲁格曼)完整教学课件.ppt

1、Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 国际贸易国际贸易(克鲁格曼克鲁格曼)完整完整 教学课件教学课件 Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-2 Preview What is international economics about? International trade topics Gains from trade, explaining patterns of trade, effects of government

2、policies on trade International finance topics Balance of payments, exchange rate determination, international policy coordination and capital markets International trade versus finance Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-3 What Is International Economics About? Internation

3、al economics is about how nations interact through: trade of goods and services, flows of money, and investment. International economics is an old subject, but continues to grow in importance as countries become tied more to the international economy. Nations are now more closely linked than ever be

4、fore. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-4 What Is International Economics About? (cont.) International trade as a fraction of the national economy has tripled for the U.S. in the past 40 years. Both imports and exports fell in 2009. Compared to the U.S., other countries a

5、re even more tied to international trade. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-5 Fig. 1-1: Exports and Imports as a Percentage of U.S. National Income Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-6 Fig. 1-2: Exports a

6、nd Imports as Percentage of National Income in 2007 Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-7 Gains from Trade Several ideas underlie the gains from trade. 1. When a buyer and a seller engage in a voluntary transacti

7、on, both can be made better off. Norwegian consumers import oranges that they would have a hard time producing. The producer of the oranges receives income that it can use to buy other things that it desires. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-8 Gains from Trade (cont.) 2.

8、 How could a country that is the most (least) efficient producer of everything gain from trade? Countries use finite resources to produce what they are most productive at (compared to their other production choices), then trade those products for goods and services that they want to consume. Countri

9、es can specialize in production, while consuming many goods and services through trade. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-9 Gains from Trade (cont.) 3. Trade benefits countries by allowing them to export goods made with relatively abundant resources and imports goods made

10、 with relatively scarce resources. 4. When countries specialize, they may be more efficient due to larger-scale production. 5. Countries may also gain by trading current resources for future resources (international borrowing and lending) and due to international migration. Copyright 2012 Pearson Ad

11、dison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-10 Gains from Trade (cont.) Trade is predicted to benefit countries as a whole in several ways, but trade may harm particular groups within a country. International trade can harm the owners of resources that are used relatively intensively in industries that com

12、pete with imports. Trade may therefore affect the distribution of income within a country. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-11 Patterns of Trade Differences in climate and resources can explain why Brazil exports coffee and Australia exports iron ore. But why does Japan

13、export automobiles, while the U.S. exports aircraft? Why some countries export certain products can stem from differences in: Labor productivity Relative supplies of capital, labor and land and their use in the production of different goods and services Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rig

14、hts reserved. 1-12 Effects of Government Policies on Trade Policy makers affect the amount of trade through tariffs: a tax on imports or exports, quotas: a quantity restriction on imports or exports, export subsidies: a payment to producers that export, or through other regulations (ex., product spe

15、cifications) that exclude foreign products from the market, but still allow domestic products. What are the costs and benefits of these policies? Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-13 The Effects of Government Policies on Trade (cont.) If a government must restrict trade,

16、which policy should it use and how much should it restrict trade? If a government restricts trade, what are the costs if foreign governments respond likewise? Trade policies are often chosen to cater to special interest groups, rather than to maximize national welfare. Governments tend to adopt tari

17、ffs, then negotiate them down in exchange for reduction in trade barriers of other countries. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-14 International Finance Topics Exchanging risky assets such as stocks and bonds can benefit all countries by diversification that reduces the v

18、ariability of income another source of gains from trade. Most international trade involves monetary transactions. Many monetary events have important consequences for international trade. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-15 Balance of Payments Governments measure the val

19、ue of exports and imports, as well as the value of financial assets that flow into and out of their countries. Trade deficits, where countries import more than they export in value, may be offset by net inflows of financial assets. The official settlements balance, or the balance of payments, measur

20、es the balance of funds that central banks use for official international payments. All three values are measured in the governments national income accounts. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-16 Exchange Rate Determination Exchange rates are an important financial issue

21、for most governments. Exchange rates measure how much domestic currency can be exchanged for foreign currency and thus affect: how much goods denominated in foreign currency (imports) cost in the domestic country. how much goods denominated in domestic currency (exports) cost in foreign markets. Som

22、e exchange rates change continually (float) while others are fixed for periods of time. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-17 International Policy Coordination In an integrated economy, one countrys economic policies usually affect other countries as well, leading to the n

23、eed for some degree of policy coordination. Depends on type of exchange rate regime. Capital markets, where money is exchanged for promises to pay in the future, have special concerns in an international setting: Currency fluctuations can alter the value paid. Countries, especially developing ones,

24、might default on debt. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 1-18 International Trade Versus Finance International trade focuses on transactions involving movement of goods and services across nations. International trade theory (chapters 28) and policy (chapters 912) Internati

25、onal finance focuses on financial or monetary transactions across nations. International monetary theory (chapters 1318) and policy (chapters 1922) Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 2 World Trade: An Overview Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserve

26、d. 2-20 Preview Largest trading partners of the United States Gravity model: influence of an economys size on trade distance and other factors that influence trade Borders and trade agreements Globalization: then and now Changing composition of trade Service outsourcing Copyright 2012 Pearson Addiso

27、n-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-21 Who Trades with Whom? The 5 largest trading partners with the U.S. in 2008 were Canada, China, Mexico, Japan, and Germany. The total value of imports from and exports to Canada in 2008 was about $550 billion dollars. The largest 15 trading partners with the U.S. a

28、ccounted for 69% of the value of U.S. trade in 2008. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-22 Fig. 2-1: Total U.S. Trade with Major Partners, 2008 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-23 Size Matters: The Gravity Mo

29、del 3 of the top 10 trading partners with the U.S. in 2008 were also the 3 largest European economies: Germany, U.K., and France. These countries have the largest gross domestic product (GDP) in Europe. GDP measures the value of goods and services produced in an economy. Why does the U.S. trade most

30、 with these European countries and not other European countries? Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-24 Size Matters: The Gravity Model (cont.) In fact, the size of an economy is directly related to the volume of imports and exports. Larger economies produce more goods and

31、services, so they have more to sell in the export market. Larger economies generate more income from the goods and services sold, so they are able to buy more imports. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-25 Fig. 2-2: The Size of European Economies, and the Value of Their Tr

32、ade with the United States Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, European Commission Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-26 The Gravity Model Other things besides size matter for trade: 1.Distance between markets influences transportation costs and therefore the cost of impo

33、rts and exports. Distance may also influence personal contact and communication, which may influence trade. 2.Cultural affinity: if two countries have cultural ties, it is likely that they also have strong economic ties. 3.Geography: ocean harbors and a lack of mountain barriers make transportation

34、and trade easier. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-27 The Gravity Model (cont.) 4.Multinational corporations: corporations spread across different nations import and export many goods between their divisions. 5.Borders: crossing borders involves formalities that take tim

35、e and perhaps monetary costs like tariffs. These implicit and explicit costs reduce trade. The existence of borders may also indicate the existence of different languages (see 2) or different currencies, either of which may impede trade more. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserve

36、d. 2-28 The Gravity Model (cont.) In its basic form, the gravity model assumes that only size and distance are important for trade in the following way: Tij = A x Yi x Yj /Dij where Tij is the value of trade between country i and country j A is a constant Yi the GDP of country i Yj is the GDP of cou

37、ntry j Dij is the distance between country i and country j Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-29 The Gravity Model (cont.) In a slightly more general form, the gravity model that is commonly estimated is Tij = A x Yia x Yjb /Dijc where a, b, and c are allowed to differ fro

38、m 1. Despite its simplicity, the gravity model works fairly well in predicting actual trade flows, as the figure above representing U.S.EU trade flows suggested. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-30 Distance and Borders Estimates of the effect of distance from the gravity

39、 model predict that a 1% increase in the distance between countries is associated with a decrease in the volume of trade of 0.7% to 1%. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-31 Distance and Borders (cont.) Besides distance, borders increase the cost and time needed to trade.

40、Trade agreements between countries are intended to reduce the formalities and tariffs needed to cross borders, and therefore to increase trade. The gravity model can assess the effect of trade agreements on trade: does a trade agreement lead to significantly more trade among its partners than one wo

41、uld otherwise predict given their GDPs and distances from one another? Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-32 Distance and Borders (cont.) The U.S. signed a free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada in 1994, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Because of NAFT

42、A and because Mexico and Canada are close to the U.S., the amount of trade between the U.S. and its northern and southern neighbors as a fraction of GDP is larger than between the U.S. and European countries. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-33 Fig. 2-3: Economic Size an

43、d Trade with the United States Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, European Commission. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-34 Distance and Borders (cont.) Yet even with a free trade agreement between the U.S. and Canada, which use a common language, the border between the

44、se countries still seems to be associated with a reduction in trade. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-35 Fig. 2-4: Canadian Provinces and U.S. States That Trade with British Columbia Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-36 Table 2-1: Trade with B

45、ritish Columbia, as Percent of GDP, 1996 Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-37 Has the World Become “Smaller”? The negative effect of distance on trade according to the gravity models is significant, but has grown smaller over time due to modern transportation and communic

46、ation. Technologies that have increased trade: Wheels, sails, compasses, railroads, telegraph, steam power, automobiles, telephones, airplanes, computers, fax machines, Internet, fiber optics, personal digital assistants, GPS satellites Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-3

47、8 Has the World Become “Smaller”? (cont.) Political factors, such as wars, can change trade patterns much more than innovations in transportation and communication. World trade grew rapidly from 1870 to 1913. Then it suffered a sharp decline due to the two world wars and the Great Depression. It sta

48、rted to recover around 1945 but did not recover fully until around 1970. Since 1970, world trade as a fraction of world GDP has achieved unprecedented heights. Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-39 Table 2-2: World Exports as a Percentage of World GDP Copyright 2012 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2-40 Changing Composition of Trade What kinds of products do nations trade now, and how does this composition compare to trade in the past? Today, most (about 55%) of