国际金融完整教学课件.ppt

1、国际金融完整教学课件国际金融完整教学课件 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-1 International Finance Lecturer: Fu Bo Email: Tel: 13560090601 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-2 International Finance Book for

2、Use: International Financial Management Author: Choel S. Sun 6th Edition Press: China Machine Press For supplemented material of the book, please access to: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT EUN / RESNICK Second Edition 1 1 Globalization and International Finance (Chapter 1) McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyr

3、ight 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-4 Essential Readings P4-19 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-5 Whats Special about International Finance? Foreign Exchange risk and political Risk Market Imperfections Expande

4、d Opportunity McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-6 Whats Special about International Finance? Foreign Exchange Risk The risk that foreign currency profits may evaporate in your home currency due to unanticipated unfavorable exchange rate moveme

5、nts. Political Risk Sovereign governments have the right to regulate the movement of goods, capital, and people across their borders. These laws sometimes change in unexpected ways. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-7 Market Imperfections Lega

6、l restrictions on free movement of goods, people, and money Transactions costs Shipping costs Tax arbitrage Whats Special about International Finance? McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-8 Expanded Opportunity Set Firms can locate their producti

7、on in any country or region of the world to maximize their profits. Firms can also raise funds in any capital market where the cost of capital is the lowest. Whats Special about International Finance? McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-9 McGraw

8、-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-10 Deregulation of Financial Markets coupled with Advances in Technology have greatly reduced information and transactions costs, which has led to: Financial Innovations, such as Currency futures and options Multi-c

9、urrency bonds Cross-border stock listings International mutual funds Reasons for Rapid Globalization INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT EUN / RESNICK Second Edition 2 INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT EUN / RESNICK Second Edition 2 The International Monetary System (Chapter 2) INTERNATIONAL FINANCI

10、AL MANAGEMENT EUN / RESNICK Second Edition 2 The International Monetary System (Chapter 2) McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-12 Essential Readings P29-49 P53-57 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights res

11、erved. 2-13 International Monetary System International monetary system can be defined as the institutional framework in which international payments are made, movements of capital are accommodated , and exchange rates among currencies are determined. It is a complex whole of arrangements, rules, in

12、stitutions, mechanisms, and policies regarding exchange rates, international payments, and the flow of capital. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-14 Main Contents Evolution of the International Monetary System Related Theories: Trilemma and Op

13、timum Currency Areas. The Asian Currency Crisis McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-15 Evolution of the International Monetary System Bimetallism: Before 1875 Classical Gold Standard: 1875-1914 Interwar Period: 1915-1944 Breton Woods System: 194

14、5-1972 The Flexible Exchange Rate Regime: 1973- Present McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-16 Bimetallism: Before 1875 A double standard in the sense that both gold and silver were used as money. Both gold and silver were used as international

15、means of payment and the exchange rates among currencies were determined by either their gold or silver contents. Grashamlaw phenomenon has only made the less valuable metal to circulate. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-17 Classical Gold Sta

16、ndard: 1875-1914 During this period in most major countries: Gold alone was assured of unrestricted coinage There was two-way convertibility between gold and national currencies at a stable ratio. Gold could be freely exported or imported. The exchange rate between two countrys currencies would be d

17、etermined by their relative gold contents. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-18 Classic Gold Standard For Example: If 1 ounce gold=12Francs 1 ounce gold=6pounds Then 1pound=2Francs McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,

18、 Inc. All rights reserved. 2-19 Classical Gold Standard: 1875-1914 Advantages of the Gold Standard: Highly stable exchange rates under the classical gold standard provided an environment that was conducive to international trade and investment. Misalignment of exchange rates and international imbala

19、nces of payment were automatically corrected by the price-specie-flow mechanism. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-20 Classical Gold Standard: 1875-1914 There are shortcomings: The supply of newly minted gold is so restricted that the growth o

20、f world trade and investment can be hampered for the lack of sufficient monetary reserves. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-21 Interwar Period: 1915-1944 Exchange rates fluctuated as countries widely used predatory depreciations of their curr

21、encies as a means of gaining advantage in the world export market. Attempts were made to restore the gold standard, but participants lacked the political will to follow the rules of the game. The result for international trade and investment was profoundly detrimental. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 20

22、01 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-22 Bretton Woods System: 1945-1972 Named for a 1944 meeting of 44 nations at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. The purpose was to design a postwar international monetary system. The goal was exchange rate stability without the gold standard. T

23、he result was the creation of the IMF and the World Bank. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-23 Bretton Woods System: 1945-1972 British Pound German Mark French Franc USD Pegged at $35/oz Gold McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill

24、 Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-24 Bretton Woods System: 1945-1972 Under the Bretton Woods system, the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold at $35 per ounce and other currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar. Each country was responsible for maintaining its exchange rate within 1% to 2.25% of the

25、 adopted par value by buying or selling foreign reserves as necessary. The Bretton Woods system was a dollar-based gold exchange standard. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-25 Bretton Woods System: 1945-1972 Collapse of the System Triffin Para

26、dox The rapid development of Germany, France and Japan McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-26 Bretton Woods System: 1945-1972 The process of the collapse of the system The first Dollar crisis:1960 The creation of the Swap Agreement ,and the Gold

27、 Pool The second Dollar crisis:1968 The two-tier gold price system , and The creation of SDR The third Dollar crisis:1971 The creation of the Smithsonnian Agreement McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-27 The Flexible Exchange Rate Regime: 1973-P

28、resent. The flexible exchange rate regime was ratified after the settlement of the Jamaica Agreement in 1976. Flexible exchange rate were declared to IMF members, and central banks were allowed to intervene in the exchange market. Gold was officially abandoned as an international reserve. Non-oil-ex

29、porting countries and less developed countries were given great access to IMF funds. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-28 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-29 The Flexible Exchange Rate

30、Regime: 1973-Present. Plaza Accord : In Sept.1985, the so-called G5 countries reached Plaza Accord. They agreed that it would be desirable for the dollar to depreciate against most major currencies to solve the US trade deficit. Louvre Accord: To address the problem of exchange rate volatility , the

31、 G-7 countries signed the Louvre Accord.This marked the inception of the managed-float system . McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-30 Current Exchange Rate Arrangements The Fixed The floating Free floating Managed floating The Pegged System Cur

32、rency Board Pegged within crawling bands Pegged within horizontal bands . McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-31 Current Exchange Rate Arrangements Fixed Exchange rates are either held constant or allowed to fluctuate within very narrow boundari

33、es. Examples are Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Ukraine. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-32 Current Exchange Rate Arrangements The Floating Free Float :The exchange rate is market determined, with any foreign exchange intervention aimed at moder

34、ating the rate of change and preventing undue fluctuations in the exchange rate rather than at establishing a level for it. Examples include the US, the UK, Japan, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Korea, and Mexico. Managed Float :The monetary authority influences the movements of the exchange rate t

35、hrough active intervention in the foreign exchange market without specifying a preanounced path for the exchange rate. Examples are China, Singapore, Russia, Thailand, India .etc. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-33 Current Exchange Rate Arra

36、ngements The Currency board arrangement: A monetary regime based on an explicit legislative commitment to exchange domestic currency for a specified foreign currency at a fixed exchange rate, combined with restrictions on the issuing authority to ensure the fulfillment of its legal obligation. Examp

37、les are China-Hong Kong SAR fixed to the USD; and Estonia fixed to Euro. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-34 Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes Arguments in favor of fixed exchange rate system: Less foreign exchange risk, helpful to

38、foreign trade and investment. Arguments AGAIST fixed exchange rate system exposure to currency crisis easy transmission of inflation Loss of monetary policy autonomy McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-35 Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rate Regi

39、mes Arguments in favor of flexible exchange rates: Easier external adjustments. National policy autonomy. Speculation avoidance Arguments against flexible exchange rates: Exchange rate uncertainty may hamper international trade. No safeguards to prevent crises. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by Th

40、e McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-36 Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes The disadvantage of the pegging system: The countrys economy is highly influenced by the pegged country. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-37 Q

41、uestion Qustion 1 The Hong Kong Dollars value is pegged to the U.S. Dollar. Explain how the following patterns would be affected by appreciation in the Japanese Yen against U.S. dollar: (a) Hong Kong exports to Japan (b) Hong Kong exports to the United States. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The

42、 McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-38 What a monetary system should a country adopt？ The Trilemma by Mundell: When money can move freely across borders, policy markers must choose between exchange-rate stability and an independent monetary policy. They cant have both. McGraw-Hill/Ir

43、win Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-39 Current Exchange Rate Arrangements Liquidity Confidence Adjustment McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-40 The Theory of the Optimum Currency Areas The theory founded

44、 by Professor Robert Mundell holds that the relevant criterion for identifying and designing a common currency is the degree of factor( capital and labor)mobility within the zone; a high degree of factor mobility would provide an adjustment mechanism, providing an alternative to country-specific mon

45、etary adjustment. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-41 41 The Map of Europe 41 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2-42 The Process of European Monetary Union The Werner Report: 1969 The Snake floating System: The establishment of the European Unit of Account The European Monetary System set up in 1979 European currency unit European monetary fund The Maastricht Tr