(国际经济学课件)Chapter-5-The-Standard-Trade-Model.ppt

1、Chapter 5 The Standard Trade ModelAn Overall Trade ModelSupply-Demand AnalysisKey Terms:P114export-biased growth import-biased growth external prices internal pricesexport subsidy isovalue linesmarginal propensity to spend(MPS)immiserizing growth Metzler paradoxstandard trade modelimport tariff term

2、s of tradeindifference curve transfer of income Chapter OrganizationIntroductionA Standard Model of a Trading EconomyEconomic Growth:A Shift of the RS CurveInternational Transfers of Income:Shifting the RD CurveTariffs and Export Subsidies:Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RDSummaryThe H-O ModelThe inte

3、rnational differences in resources comparative advantage The pattern of tradeThe equalization of good pricesThe equalization of factor pricesThe distribution of income.A Standard Model of a Trading EconomyThe relationship between the PPF and the RS curveThe relationship between relative price and RD

4、The determination of world equilibrium by world RS and world RDThe effect of the terms of tradeThe standard trade model()The PPF and RSWhat are isovalue lines?VQPQPFFCCCFCFFQPPPVQQF QC slope=-(PC/PF)intercepts:V/PF,V/PC the isovalue linesV/PF V/PC QF Q1F Q2F Q1C Q2C QC slope=-(PC/PF)1 slope=-(PC/PF)

5、2PC/PF The isovalue line is steeperQC QF QC/QF PC/PF QC/QF RS Relative Prices and RDWhats indifference curve?QF QC I3I2 I1 VDPDPQPQPFFCCFFCCQC QF D2D1 I2 I1 Q1 Q2 Food importsCloth exports Food importsCloth exportsslope=-(PC/PF)1 slope=-(PC/PF)2PC/PF I1 I2Social welfare is improved.D1 D2DC/DF ,less

6、cloth,more foodPC/PF QC/QF RD Determination of Relative Prices (terms of trade)PC/PF(Q(QC C+Q+Q*C C)/(Q)/(QF F+Q+Q*F F)RSRD The Welfare Effect of Changes in the Terms of TradePC/PF I1 I2The nation which exports cloth is better off.PC/PF I2 I1The nation which exports food is better off.Conclusion:A r

7、ise in the terms of trade increases a countrys welfare,while a decline in the terms of trade reduces its welfare.Economic Growth:A Shift of the RS Curve()Biased Growth Biased growth takes place when the PPF shifts out more in one direction than in the other.Bias in technological progressBias in reso

8、urces increaseReasonsQF QC QF QCCloth-biased GrowthFood-biased Growth RS and the terms of trade Import-Biased Growth in HomeQF QC QC1 0 QF2 QF1 QC2 PC/PF(Q(QC C+Q+Q*C C)/(Q)/(QF F+Q+Q*F F)RS1 RS2 RD12(PC/PF)1(PC/PF)2 Import-Biased Growth and Terms of TradeHome is better off.Foreign is worse off.PC/P

9、F Import-biased growth tends to improve a countrys terms of trade,but hurts the rest of the world.Case Study Has the Growth of Newly Industrializing Countries Hurt Advanced Nations?1983-19921993-2002Advanced countries1.10.1Oil-exporting countries-7.52.0Other developing countries-0.6-0.2QF QC Export-

10、Biased Growth in HomeQC1 0 QF2 QF1 QC2 PC/PF(Q(QC C+Q+Q*C C)/(Q)/(QF F+Q+Q*F F)RS1 RS2 RD12(PC/PF)1(PC/PF)2Export-Biased Growth and Terms of tradeHome is worse off.Foreign is better off.PC/PF Export-biased growth tends to worsen a countrys terms of trade,to the benefit of the rest of the world.Expor

11、t-biased growth tends to worsen a countrys terms of trade,to the benefit of the rest of the world.Import-biased growth tends to improve a countrys terms of trade,but hurts the rest of the world.General Conclusion()Immiserizing Growth-An Extreme Case of Export-Biased Growth ConceptionExport-biased gr

12、owth by poor nations would worsen their terms of trade so much that they would be worse off than if they had not grown at all.PC/PF RS1 RS2 RD(PC/PF)1(PC/PF)2Shown by Graph(Q(QC C+Q+Q*C C)/(Q)/(QF F+Q+Q*F F)Case Study Immiserizing Growth in China 2001年商务部国际市场研究室接受联合国的研究课题而年商务部国际市场研究室接受联合国的研究课题而发表的发表

13、的1993-2000中国贸易条件研究中国贸易条件研究：1993-2000年，以年，以 1995年为基期的中国整体贸易条件指数下降了年为基期的中国整体贸易条件指数下降了13%。林丽和张素芳：林丽和张素芳：1994-2002年间中国的价格贸易条件下降年间中国的价格贸易条件下降了了37%。崔津渡和李诚邦：崔津渡和李诚邦：1995-2005年间中国的价格贸易条件下年间中国的价格贸易条件下降了降了26%。1993-2003年间中国与德国、英国、法国的价格贸易条件年间中国与德国、英国、法国的价格贸易条件总体恶化，且幅度较大。其中中德的全部商品贸易条件恶化总体恶化，且幅度较大。其中中德的全部商品贸易条件恶化

14、62%，中英，中英31%，中法，中法77%。而且其中制成品的贸易条件也都。而且其中制成品的贸易条件也都恶化了，中德、中英、中法分别为恶化了，中德、中英、中法分别为65%、28%和和79%。世界垂直分工格局下，中国处于世界垂直分工格局下，中国处于“微笑曲线微笑曲线”的最低端。的最低端。tVA 研发研发阶段阶段生产制生产制造阶段造阶段销售以及销售以及售后阶段售后阶段 施振荣（宏碁公司创始人）施振荣（宏碁公司创始人）.International Transfer of Income:Shifting the RD CurveInternational transfers of income,such

15、 as war reparations and foreign aid,may affect a countrys terms of trade by shifting the world relative demand curve.Relative world demand for goods may shift because of:Changes in tastes Changes in technology International transfers of incomeHow international transfers affect the terms of tradeWhat

16、 Marginal Propensity to Spend?MPS:The change of the spend on a good when the income changes a unit.()Effects of a Transfer on the terms of Trade奥巴马政府承诺增加一倍对外援奥巴马政府承诺增加一倍对外援助资金，在助资金，在2012年达到年达到500亿美元亿美元水平。水平。在援助的类型上，有几乎四分在援助的类型上，有几乎四分之一用于军事援助，还有超过四之一用于军事援助，还有超过四分之一则是出于国家安全或者政分之一则是出于国家安全或者政治目的提供的经济援助。

17、这两项治目的提供的经济援助。这两项相加，大概是美援总数的一半。相加，大概是美援总数的一半。另外的一半里面，包括了经济发另外的一半里面，包括了经济发展援助（展援助（30%）、人道援助（）、人道援助（12%）和多边合作计划。和多边合作计划。按照奥巴马政府按照奥巴马政府2011财年拨款申请，第一受援国是阿富汗，申请总财年拨款申请，第一受援国是阿富汗，申请总额为额为39亿多美元；排名第二的是阿富汗的邻国巴基斯坦，总额逾亿多美元；排名第二的是阿富汗的邻国巴基斯坦，总额逾30亿亿美元。第三是以色列，总额美元。第三是以色列，总额30亿美元。埃及位居第四，总额接近亿美元。埃及位居第四，总额接近15亿亿6千万美

18、元。伊拉克排在第五位，总额为千万美元。伊拉克排在第五位，总额为7290多万美元。多万美元。2011财年的财年的美国美国10大受援国接下来是：肯尼亚、约旦、尼日利亚、南非和埃塞俄大受援国接下来是：肯尼亚、约旦、尼日利亚、南非和埃塞俄比亚。比亚。据统计，日本对东南亚援助占到其对外援助一半以上。近年来，日据统计，日本对东南亚援助占到其对外援助一半以上。近年来，日本对不少国家的经济援助逐年减少，但对东南亚国家援助却有增无减。本对不少国家的经济援助逐年减少，但对东南亚国家援助却有增无减。19981998年日本政府对外援助总额为年日本政府对外援助总额为1071073131亿美元，比上年减少亿美元，比上年减

19、少13137 7。其中双边援助为其中双边援助为86860505亿美元，约占亿美元，约占8080，无偿资金合作为，无偿资金合作为21216767亿美元，技亿美元，技术合作为术合作为27278181亿美元，政府贷款为亿美元，政府贷款为36365656亿美元。在双边援助中，主要地亿美元。在双边援助中，主要地区受援比率为亚洲区受援比率为亚洲62624 4、非洲、非洲1111、拉美拉美6 64 4、中东、中东4 46 6、大洋洲、大洋洲1 17 7、欧洲（含东欧）、欧洲（含东欧）2 23 3。过去过去10年，日本海外援助预算急剧下降。在上世纪年，日本海外援助预算急剧下降。在上世纪90年代初期，由年代初期

20、，由于拥有长期经济繁荣带来的充裕资金，日本是世界上最大的援助国。于拥有长期经济繁荣带来的充裕资金，日本是世界上最大的援助国。现在，日本仅仅是第五大援助国。作为日本海外援助的积极倡导者，现在，日本仅仅是第五大援助国。作为日本海外援助的积极倡导者，麻生认为，对发展中国家的援助是麻生认为，对发展中国家的援助是“输出日本文化的体面途径，也是输出日本文化的体面途径，也是传播日本价值观的重要方式传播日本价值观的重要方式”。2011年，日本政府对外开发援助资金项目预计将达到总额年，日本政府对外开发援助资金项目预计将达到总额137.75万亿日元，其中有万亿日元，其中有8650亿将分配给亚洲。亿将分配给亚洲。中

21、国对外援助始于中国对外援助始于1950年。年。1976年以前，中国已经援助了年以前，中国已经援助了110多个国家。进入新世纪特别是多个国家。进入新世纪特别是2004年以来，中国对外援助年以来，中国对外援助资金保持快速增长，资金保持快速增长，2004年至年至2009年平均年增长率为年平均年增长率为29.。截至截至2009年底，中国累计对外提供援助金额达年底，中国累计对外提供援助金额达2562.9亿元人亿元人民币，其中无偿援助民币，其中无偿援助1062亿元，无息贷款亿元，无息贷款765.4亿元，优惠贷亿元，优惠贷款款735.5亿元。亿元。中国对外援助中国对外援助中国对外援助的主要对象是低收入发展中

22、国家。受援国中国对外援助的主要对象是低收入发展中国家。受援国涉及亚洲、非洲、拉丁美洲、加勒比、大洋洲和东欧等地涉及亚洲、非洲、拉丁美洲、加勒比、大洋洲和东欧等地区大部分发展中国家。中国对其中最不发达国家和其他低区大部分发展中国家。中国对其中最不发达国家和其他低收入国家的援助比重始终保持在收入国家的援助比重始终保持在2/3左右。左右。截至截至2009年底，中国累计向年底，中国累计向161个国家以及个国家以及30多个国际和多个国际和区域组织提供了援助，经常性接受中国援助的发展中国家有区域组织提供了援助，经常性接受中国援助的发展中国家有123个，其中亚洲个，其中亚洲30个、非洲个、非洲51个、拉丁美

23、洲和加勒比个、拉丁美洲和加勒比18个、个、大洋洲大洋洲12个、东欧个、东欧12个。个。60多年来，中国共向166个国家和国际组织提供了近4000亿元人民币援助，派遣60多万援助人员，其中700多名中国好儿女为他国发展献出了宝贵生命。中国先后7次宣布无条件免除重债穷国和最不发达国家对华到期政府无息贷款债务。中国积极向亚洲、非洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比地区、大洋洲的69个国家提供医疗援助，先后为120多个发展中国家落实千年发展目标提供帮助。将设立“南南合作援助基金”，首期提供20亿美元，支持发展中国家落实2015年后发展议程；继续增加对最不发达国家投资，力争2030年达到120亿美元；免除对有关最不发达

24、国家、内陆发展中国家、小岛屿发展中国家截至2015年底到期未还的政府间无息贷款债务；未来5年向发展中国家提供“6个100”的项目支持，包括100个减贫项目、100个农业合作项目、100个促贸援助项目、100个生态保护和应对气候变化项目、100所医院和诊所、100所学校和职业培训中心；向发展中国家提供12万个来华培训和15万个奖学金名额，为发展中国家培养50万名职业技术人员，设立南南合作与发展学院，等等。2015年联合国系列峰会年联合国系列峰会()MPSC(H)MPSC(F),Homes transfer payment to Foreign reduces demand for cloth a

25、nd increases demand for food.PC/PF(PC/PF)1(PC/PF)2 RD1 RD2(QC+Q*C)/(QF+Q*F)RS12PC/PF declines,Homes terms of trade worsens.MPSC(H)MPSC(F),Homes transfer payment to Foreign reduces demand for food and increases demand for cloth.PC/PF(PC/PF)2(PC/PF)1 RD2 RD1(QC+Q*C)/(QF+Q*F)RS21PC/PF rises,Homes terms

26、 of trade improves.Tariffs and Export Subsidies:Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RD()The Effects of Import Tariffs20%on food(PC/PF)internal(PF/PC)internalThe relative supply of cloth will decrease.The relative demand for cloth will increase.Graph as the following.(PC/PF)external(PF/PC)external SF SCDCD

27、F 21PC/PF(PC/PF)1(PC/PF)2 RS2RS1 RD2 RD1(QC+Q*C)/(QF+Q*F)Result:Import tariffs will improve Homes terms of trade.How about a small country,such as Luxemburg?()The Effects of Export SubsidiesHome offers 20%subsidy on clothDomestic PC/PF will increase 20%Graph as the following.Producers will produce m

28、ore cloth.Consumers will consume less cloth.Result:Export subsidies will worsen Homes welfare.12PC/PF(PC/PF)2(PC/PF)1 RS1RS2 RD1RD2(QC+Q*C)/(QF+Q*F)Implications of Terms of Trade Effects:Who Gains and Who Loses?The International Distribution of IncomeIf Home(a large country)imposes a tariff,its welf

29、are increases as long as the tariff is not too large,while Foreigns welfare decreases.If Home offers an export subsidy,its welfare deteriorates,while Foreigns welfare increases.The Distribution of Income Within CountriesA tariff(subsidy)has the direct effect of raising the internal relative price of

30、 the imported(exported)good.Tariffs and export subsidies might have perverse effects on internal prices(Metzler paradox).The standard trade model provides a framework that can be used to address a wide range of international issues and admits previous trade models as special cases.A countrys terms o

31、f trade are determined by the intersection of the world relative supply and demand curves.Economic growth is usually biased.Growth that is export-biased(import-biased)worsens(improves)the terms of trade.International transfers of income may affect a countrys terms of trade,depending if they shift th

32、e world relative demand curve.Import tariffs and export subsidies affect both relative supply and demand.The terms of trade effects of an export subsidy hurt the exporting country and benefit the rest of the world,while those of a tariff do the reverse.Both trade instruments have strong income distr

33、ibution effects within countries.1.Export-biased growth in Country H will A.improve the terms of trade of Country H.B.trigger anti-bias regulations of the WTO.C.worsen the terms of trade of Country F (the trade partner).D.improve the terms of trade of Country F.E.decrease economic welfare in Country

34、 H.Answer:D 2.If the U.S.Agency for International Development transfers funds to poor countries in Sub-Saharan Africa,this must A.worsen the U.S.terms of trade.B.improve the U.S.terms of trade.C.worsen the terms of trade of the African aid recipients.D.improve the terms of trade of the African aid r

35、ecipients.E.None of the above.Answer:E 3.If the United States(a large country)imposes a tariff on its imported good,this will tend to A.have no effect on terms of trade.B.improve the terms of trade of all countries.C.improve the terms of trade of the United States.D.cause a deterioration of U.S.term

36、s of trade.E.raise the world price of the good imported by the United States.Answer:C4.After WWI,Germany was forced to make large reparations-transfers of real income-to France.If the marginal propensity to consume was equal in both countries,and if Frances demand was biased toward food(relative to

37、Germanys demand pattern)then we would expect to find A.the worlds relative price for food remains unchanged.B.the worlds relative price for food increase.C.the worlds relative price for food decrease.D.the world relative price for both food and non-food rise.E.None of the above.Answer:B(1)Albania re

38、fused to engage in international trade for ideological reasons.To maximize its economic welfare it would choose to produce at which point in the diagram above?Quantitative/Graphing Problems BACba (2)Suppose the PA/PB at point a was equal to 1.Given this information,in which good(A or B)does Albania

39、enjoy a comparative advantage?(3)Now that the Cold War is over,Albania is interested in obtaining economic welfare gains from trade.The relevant international relative price isPA/PB =2.Albania would therefore choose to produce at which point(a,b,or c)?Given this additional information,in which good

40、does Albania enjoy a comparative advantage?（4）Suppose,as a result of various dynamic factors associated with exposure to international competition,Albanias economy grew,and is nowBACbarepresented by the rightmost production possibility frontier in the Figure above.If its point of production with tra

41、de was point c,would you consider this growth to be export-biased or import biased?If Albania were a large country with respect to the world trade of A and B,how would this growth affect Albanias terms of trade?Its real income?（1）Albania would choose to produce at point a.（2）With no reference to wor

42、ld terms of trade,one cannot establish Albanias comparative advantage.（3）when Albania discovers that the relative price of A equals twice the price of B,it knows that it has a comparative advantage in A.Therefore Albania would produce at production point b.Answers:（4）If point c is the production poi

43、nt with trade,then Albania has a comparative advantage in good B.Therefore,from the shape of the new production possibility frontier(as compared to the original one),this is clearly an export-biased growth.This ceteris paribus would tend to worsen Albanias terms of trade.The terms of trade effect would,again ceteris paribus,worsen its real income.