Chapter09管理决策解析课件.ppt

1、Managerial Decision MakingChapter 9Copyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.2Managerial Decision MakinglDecision making is not easylIt must be done amid ever-changing factors unclear information conflicting points of viewManagers Challenge:TupperwareCopyrigh

2、t 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.3Managerial Decision MakinglDecision CharacteristicslDecision-making ModelslSteps Executives Take Making Important DecisionslParticipative Decision MakinglTechniques for Improving Decision Making in Todays OrganizationsTopics

3、Chapter 9Copyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.4Decisions and Decision MakinglDecision=choice made from available alternativeslDecision Making=process of identifying problems and opportunities and resolving themCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a division o

4、f Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.5Categories of DecisionslProgrammed DecisionsSituations occurred often enough to enable decision rules to be developed and applied in the futureMade in response to recurring organizational problemslNonprogrammed Decisions in response to unique,poorly defined an

5、d largely unstructured,and have important consequences to the organizationEthical Dilemma:The No-Show ConsultantCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.6Decisions and Decision MakinglMany decisions that managers deal with every day involve at least some deg

6、ree of uncertainty and require nonprogrammed decision makingMay be difficult to makeMade amid changing factorsInformation may be unclearMay have to deal with conflicting points of viewCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.7Certainty,Risk,Uncertainty,Ambig

7、uity Certaintyall the information the decision maker needs is fully availableRiskdecision has clear-cut goalsgood information is availablefuture outcomes associated with each alternative are subject to chanceUncertaintymanagers know which goals they wish to achieveinformation about alternatives and

8、future events is incompletemanagers may have to come up with creative approaches to alternativesAmbiguityby far the most difficult decision situationgoals to be achieved or the problem to be solved is unclearalternatives are difficult to defineinformation about outcomes is unavailableCopyright 2005

9、by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.8Conditions that Affect the Possibility of Decision FailureOrganizationalProblemProblemSolutionLowHighPossibility of FailureCertaintyRiskUncertaintyAmbiguityProgrammedDecisionsNonprogrammedDecisionsCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a

10、division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.9Selecting a Decision Making ModellDepends on the managers personal preferencelWhether the decision is programmed or non-programmedlExtent to which the decision is characterized by risk,uncertainty,or ambiguityCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a divisio

11、n of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.10Three Decision-Making Models Classical Model Administrative Model Political ModelCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.11Classical ModelAssumptionsDecision maker operates to accomplish goals that are known and a

12、greed uponDecision maker strives for condition of certainty gathers complete informationCriteria for evaluating alternatives are knownDecision maker is rational and uses logicNormative=describes how a manager should and provides guidelines for reaching an ideal decisionLogical decision in the organi

13、zations best economic interestsCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.12Administrative ModelTwo concepts are instrumental in shaping the administrative modelBounded rationality:people have limits or boundaries on how rational they can beSatisficing:means t

14、hat decision makers choose the first solution alternative that satisfies minimal decision criteriaHerbert A.SimonHow nonprogrammed decisions are made-uncertainty/ambiguityCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.13Administrative ModelManagers actually make d

15、ecisions in difficult situations characterized by non-programmed decisions,uncertainty,and ambiguityDecision goals often are vague,conflicting and lack consensus among managers;Rational procedures are not always usedManagers searches for alternatives are limitedManagers settle for a satisficing rath

16、er than a maximizing solutionintuition,looks to past experienceDescriptive=how managers actually make decisions-not how they shouldHow nonprogrammed decisions are made-uncertainty/ambiguityCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.14Political ModelClosely res

17、embles the real environment in which most managers and decision makers operateUseful in making non-programmed decisionsDecisions are complexDisagreement and conflict over problems and solutions are normalCoalition=informal alliance among manages who support a specific goalClosely resembles the real

18、environment Copyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.15Characteristics of Classical,Political,and Administrative Decision Making Models Classical Model Administrative Model Political ModelClear-cut problem and goals Vague problem and goals Pluralistic;confli

19、cting goalsCondition of certainty Condition of uncertainty Condition of uncertainty/ambiguityFull information about Limited information about Inconsistent viewpoints;ambiguous alternatives and their outcomes Alternatives and their outcomes informationRational choice by individual Satisficing choice

20、for resolving Bargaining and discussion among for maximizing outcomes problem using intuition coalition membersCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.16Six Steps in the ManagerialDecision-Making ProcessEvaluationandFeedbackDiagnosisand Analysisof CausesRec

21、ognition ofDecisionRequirementDevelopment ofAlternativesSelection ofDesired AlternativeImplementationof ChosenAlternativeDecision-MakingProcessCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.17Diagnosis and Analysis of CauseslDiagnosis=analyze underlying causal fac

22、tors associated with the decision situationlManagers make a mistake if they jump into generating alternatives without first exploring the cause of the problem more deeplyCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.18Underlying Causes-Kepner/Tregoe lWhat is the

23、state of disequilibrium affecting us?lWhen did it occur?lWhere did it occur?lHow did it occur?lTo whom did it occur?lWhat is the urgency of the problem?lWhat is the interconnectedness of events?lWhat result came from which activity?Copyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All r

24、ights reserved.19Selection of Desired AlternativeslRisk Propensity=willingness to undertake risk with the opportunity of gaining an increased payofflImplementation=using managerial,administrative,and persuasive abilities to translate the chosen alternative into actionCopyright 2005 by South-Western,

25、a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.20Decision StyleslDifferences among people with respect to how they perceive problems and make decisionslNot all managers make decisions the same Directive styleAnalytical styleConceptual styleBehavioral styleCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a divisi

26、on of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.21Personal Decision FrameworkSituation:Programmed/non-programmed Classical,administrative,political Decision stepsDecision Choice:Best Solution to ProblemPersonal Decision Style:DirectiveAnalyticalConceptualBehavioralCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a divisi

27、on of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.22Directive StylelPeople who prefer simple,clear-cut solutions to problemslMake decisions quicklylMay consider only one or two alternativeslEfficient and rationallPrefer rules or procedures Copyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All

28、rights reserved.23Analytical StylelComplex solutions based on as much data as they can gatherlCarefully consider alternativeslBase decision on objective,rational data from management control systems and other sourceslSearch for best possible decision based on information availableCopyright 2005 by S

29、outh-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.24Conceptual StylelConsider a broad amount of informationlMore socially oriented than analytical stylelLike to talk to others about the problem and possible solutionslConsider many broad alternativeslRelay on information from people and

30、 systemslSolve problems creativelyCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.25Behavioral StylelHave a deep concern for others as individualslLike to talk to people one-on-onelUnderstand their feelings about the problem and the effect of a given decision upon

31、themlConcerned with the personal development of otherslMay make decisions to help others achieve their goalsExperiential Exercise:Whats Your Personal Decision Style?Copyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.26Participation in Decision MakinglHelps gauge the a

32、ppropriate amount of participation for subordinates in processLeader Participation StylesFive levels of subordinate participation in decision making ranging from highly autocratic to highly democraticVroom-Jago ModelCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.2

33、7Participation in Decision MakingDiagnostic QuestionsDecision participation depends on the responses to seven diagnostic questions aboutthe problem the required level of decision quality the importance of having subordinates commit to the decisionVroom-Jago ModelCopyright 2005 by South-Western,a div

34、ision of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.28Seven Leader Diagnostic QuestionsHow significant is the decision?How important is subordinate commitment?What is the level of the leaders expertise?If the leader were to make the decision alone at what level would subordinates be committed to the decis

35、ion?What level is the subordinates support for the team or organizations objectives?What is the members level of knowledge or expertise relative to the problem?How skilled or committed are group members to working together?Copyright 2005 by South-Western,a division of Thomson Learning.All rights reserved.29New Decision Approaches for Turbulent TimesLearn,Dont PunishKnow When to BailPractice the Five WhysEngage in Rigorous DebateBrainstormingNew Decision Approaches for Turbulent Times