国际经济导论Chapter课件.ppt

1、Introduction to Introduction to Global Economic Global Economic EnvironmentEnvironmentJiang YuJiang Yu课程介绍课程介绍 本课程为商务英语专业的专业基础课程，目的在于本课程为商务英语专业的专业基础课程，目的在于培养学生既能熟练掌握语言技能、具有扎实语言功培养学生既能熟练掌握语言技能、具有扎实语言功底和交际能力，又能通晓国际经贸知识和规范，从底和交际能力，又能通晓国际经贸知识和规范，从而形成集系统商务学科知识、英语语言知识、跨文而形成集系统商务学科知识、英语语言知识、跨文化交际能力和商务操作技能于

2、一体的复合型国际商化交际能力和商务操作技能于一体的复合型国际商务英语人才。务英语人才。该门课程主要采取教师教授辅助于案例讨论和学生该门课程主要采取教师教授辅助于案例讨论和学生自学的方式，共计自学的方式，共计32个学时，个学时，2个学分，为考试课个学分，为考试课程，采取闭卷、百分制形式。试卷成绩占总评成绩程，采取闭卷、百分制形式。试卷成绩占总评成绩的的70%，平时成绩占总评成绩的，平时成绩占总评成绩的30%。其中平时成。其中平时成绩由作业成绩、出勤情况、课堂表现等几部分构成。绩由作业成绩、出勤情况、课堂表现等几部分构成。材：材：国际经济导论国际经济导论王关富主编，高等教育出王关富主编，高等教育出

3、版社，版社，2002.82002.8ContentsContents Part 1 Part 1 Managing the EconomyManaging the Economy Part 2 Part 2 The Framework of World TradeThe Framework of World Trade Part 3 Part 3 International Monetary RelationsInternational Monetary Relations Part 4 Part 4 Global Competitive EnvironmentGlobal Competiti

4、ve Environment Part 5 Part 5 Other Relevant EnvironmentOther Relevant EnvironmentPart 1 Part 1 Managing the EconomyManaging the Economy Economic history tells us that the Economic history tells us that the economy never grows smoothly.economy never grows smoothly.Macroeconomic policy has the followi

5、ng Macroeconomic policy has the following objectivesobjectives:A reasonable rate of economic growth;A reasonable rate of economic growth;High employment;High employment;Stable price;Stable price;Satisfactory balance of payments;Satisfactory balance of payments;Equilibrium and an equitable Equilibriu

6、m and an equitable distribution of income.distribution of income.Chapter 1 Measuring Economic Success Chapter overview An ideal market economy is one in which all goods and services are voluntarily exchanged for money at market prices.Such a system squeezes the maximum benefits out of a society s av

7、ailable resources without government intervention.The government has three roles:Correct market failures;Redistribute income;Achieve economic success.Objectives of Macroeconomic PolicyObjectives of Macroeconomic Policy Economic GrowthEconomic Growth:nominal and real GDP(GNP,DI,etc.)nominal and real

8、GDP(GNP,DI,etc.)High EmploymentHigh Employment:The unemployed The unemployed Unemployment Rate=The labor force Unemployment Rate=The labor force Stable PriceStable Price:CPI CPI2 2-CPI-CPI1 1 Inflation Rate=CPI Inflation Rate=CPI1 11.Economic growth and its measurement Gross domestic product(GDP)is

9、the measure of the market value of all final goods and services produced in a country during a year.GNP is the total output produced with labor or capital owned by the residents of a country during a year,while GDP is the output produced with labor and capital located inside a country during a year.

10、最终产品和中间产品最终产品和中间产品n最终产品：一定时期内生产、同期内不最终产品：一定时期内生产、同期内不再加工、可供最终消费和使用的产品。再加工、可供最终消费和使用的产品。不重复出售、转卖不重复出售、转卖或进一步加工或进一步加工n中间产品：不能最终使用或消费，还要在以后生产中进行再中间产品：不能最终使用或消费，还要在以后生产中进行再加工的产品。加工的产品。实际区分最终与中间产品非常因难。实际区分最终与中间产品非常因难。l煤用于家庭取暖与作饭时是最终产品，煤用于家庭取暖与作饭时是最终产品，l作为发电与炼钢的原料时又是中间产品。作为发电与炼钢的原料时又是中间产品。最终产品与中间产品产品产品价值价

11、值增值增值中间产品中间产品棉花棉花15151515棉纱棉纱20205 5棉布棉布30301010售衣商售衣商45451515最终产品最终产品服装服装50505 5总计总计1601605050结论：结论：最终产品在各生产过程中的价值增值该最终产品的价值最终产品在各生产过程中的价值增值该最终产品的价值避免重复计算，只计算附加值避免重复计算，只计算附加值GDP外商公司在本国的外商公司在本国的企业与员工的收入企业与员工的收入本国国民及本国国民及企业收入企业收入GNP本国人民及本国人民及企业收入企业收入海外的本国海外的本国人民及企业人民及企业收入收入nGNP按照国民原则。以本国公民为统计标准。按照国民原

12、则。以本国公民为统计标准。n包括居住在本国的本国公民、暂居外国的本国公民。包括居住在本国的本国公民、暂居外国的本国公民。nGDP按照国境原则。以地理国境为统计标准按照国境原则。以地理国境为统计标准.n包括居住在本国的本国公民、居住在本国的外国公民。包括居住在本国的本国公民、居住在本国的外国公民。中国诺基亚公司归芬兰人所有，所以该公司在中国经营得到的利润，虽中国诺基亚公司归芬兰人所有，所以该公司在中国经营得到的利润，虽是中国是中国GDP一部分，但不被统计为中国一部分，但不被统计为中国GNP，而应归入芬兰，而应归入芬兰GNP。中国海尔在美国工厂的利润，应作为美国中国海尔在美国工厂的利润，应作为美国

13、GDP一部分，但应被统计为中一部分，但应被统计为中国的国的GNP。随着国际经济联系加强，重视地域范围的随着国际经济联系加强，重视地域范围的GDP相对重要性上升。相对重要性上升。13nGNP外国公民在本国生产的最终产品的市场价值 GDP本国公民在国外生产的最终产品的市场价值。如果如果GNPGDP，说明本国公民在国外生产的最终产品的，说明本国公民在国外生产的最终产品的市场价值外国公民在本国生产的最终产品的市场价值。市场价值外国公民在本国生产的最终产品的市场价值。如果如果GNPGDP，说明本国公民在国外生产的最终产品的，说明本国公民在国外生产的最终产品的市场价值市场价值外国公民在本国生产的最终产品的

14、市场价值。外国公民在本国生产的最终产品的市场价值。There are two ways to measure GDP:Nominal GDP is measured in current market prices;Real GDP is calculated in constant or invariant prices.The GDP deflator measures the current level of prices relative to the level of prices in the base year.It tells us the rise in Nominal GD

15、P that is attributable to a rise in prices rather than a rise in the quantities produced.Economists use GDP deflator as a measure to monitor the average level of prices in the economy.GDP deflator=Nominal GDP/Real GDP1978年2011年住房的产量：住房的产量：8间间住房的单价：住房的单价：20万元万元住房的产量：住房的产量：6间间住房的单价：住房的单价：120万元万元名义名义GD

16、P：820160万万名义名义GDP：6120720万万实际实际GDP：620120万万1978年2011年比较比较1978年与年与2007年，中年，中国的名义国的名义GDP增加了近增加了近130倍，但由于通货膨胀的因倍，但由于通货膨胀的因素，实际素，实际GDP增加的可能增加的可能没有这么多。没有这么多。471564亿元 Potential GDP represents the maximum amount the economy can produce while maintaining reasonable price stability.Potential GDP is also some

17、times called the high-employment level of output.GDP gap is the difference between actual GDP and Potential GDP.l一般，一般，GDPGDP缺口越大，说明经济发展越没有效率。缺口越大，说明经济发展越没有效率。国内生产总值的计算国内生产总值的计算 三种核算方法：生产法、支出法和收入法。三种核算方法：生产法、支出法和收入法。生产法的理论依据：将参与生产的各部门各环节所创造的增生产法的理论依据：将参与生产的各部门各环节所创造的增值加总，即为生产法核算的值加总，即为生产法核算的GDPn收入法收

18、入法GDP计算公式计算公式工资利息租金工资利息租金+税前利润税前利润 折旧折旧 间接税间接税 企业转移支付企业转移支付支出法：支出法：GDPGDPC CI IG G X XM M计算计算GDPGDP的方法的方法最终产品法：最终产品价最终产品法：最终产品价值和。值和。价值增值法：价值增值法：计算在生产计算在生产不同阶段增加产值，即计算不同阶段增加产值，即计算销售产品收益与为生产该产销售产品收益与为生产该产品购买的中间产品费用之间品购买的中间产品费用之间差额。差额。GDPGDP作为流量，仅度作为流量，仅度量某一个时期（例如一年内）量某一个时期（例如一年内）新生产产品价值，不计算以新生产产品价值，不

19、计算以前时期产值。前时期产值。生产阶段生产阶段销售阶段销售阶段增加值增加值羊毛羊毛$100$100$100$100毛线毛线$130$130$30$30毛衣毛衣$180$180$50$50顾客顾客$180$180合计合计$410$410$180$180GDP=增加值增加值=最终产品的市场价值最终产品的市场价值 NI represents the total incomes received by labor,capital,and land.It is constructed by subtracting depreciation and indirect taxes from GDP.NI e

20、quals compensation of labor,rental income,net interest,income of proprietors,and corporate profits.1 1 美国美国 15,064,81615,064,8162 2 中国中国 6,988,4706,988,4703 3 日本日本 5,855,3835,855,3834 4 德国德国 3,628,6233,628,6235 5 法国法国 2,808,2652,808,2656 6 巴西巴西 2,517,9272,517,9277 7 英国英国 2,480,9782,480,9788 8 意大利意大利

21、 2,245,7062,245,7069 9 俄罗斯俄罗斯 1,884,9031,884,90310 10 印度印度 1,843,3821,843,382世界世界GDP2011排名排名 1 1 卢森堡卢森堡 10 8832 10 8832 2 2 挪挪 威威 84444 84444 3 3 卡塔尔卡塔尔 76168 76168 4 4 瑞瑞 士士 67246 67246 5 5 阿联酋阿联酋 59717 59717 6 6 丹丹 麦麦 56147 56147 7 7 澳大利亚澳大利亚 55590 55590 8 8 瑞瑞 典典 48875 48875 9 9 美美 国国 47284472841

22、0 10 荷荷 兰兰 47172 47172 世界人均世界人均GDP2011排名排名91 91 阿尔及利亚阿尔及利亚 4435 4435 92 92 马其顿马其顿 4431 4431 93 93 中中 国国 43824382 94 94 波波 黑黑 4319 4319 95 95 突尼斯突尼斯 420042002.High Employment,Low Unemployment Unemployment rate:the number of unemployment divided by the total labor force.The labor force includes all em

23、ployed persons and those unemployment individuals who are seeking jobs.It excludes those without work who are not looking for jobs,that is,those who are keeping house,retired,too ill to work,or simply not looking for a job.Types of Unemployment Frictional Unemployment exists because of the incessant

24、 movement of people between regions and jobs or through different stages of the life cycle.Structural Unemployment indicates a mismatch between the supply of and the demand for workers.Cyclical Unemployment exists when the overall demand for labor is low.The Types of Unemployment can helps economist

25、s diagnose the general health of the labor market.High level of Frictional or Structural Unemployment can occur even though the overall labor market is in balance;Cyclical Unemployment occurs during recessions,when employment falls because of an imbalance between aggregate supply and demand.Natural

26、rate of unemployment,also sometimes referred to as the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment,is the normal unemployment rate that can be sustained for long without upward pressure on inflation.Job fairs Impacts of unemployment It is an economic problem because if represents waste of a valu

27、able resource.It is a major social problem because if causes enormous suffering as unemployed workers struggle with reduced incomes.Okuns Law states that for every 2 percent that GDP falls relative to potential GDP,the unemployment rate rises about 1 percent point.失业对个人的影响失业对个人的影响:自愿失业，带来闲暇享受或者寻找到更适

28、合自己的工作自愿失业，带来闲暇享受或者寻找到更适合自己的工作 非自愿失业，使收入减少，生活水平下降非自愿失业，使收入减少，生活水平下降,甚至增加犯罪。甚至增加犯罪。事件事件紧张程度紧张程度事件事件紧张程度紧张程度配偶死亡配偶死亡100100解雇解雇4040入狱入狱6666学业不良被迫辍学业不良被迫辍学学3737失去工作失去工作4949孩子离家孩子离家2929亲密朋友死亡亲密朋友死亡4747工作条件变化工作条件变化2020不同事件引起的紧张感（美国）不同事件引起的紧张感（美国）失业对社会的影响失业对社会的影响:政府要增加福利支出，造成财政困难政府要增加福利支出，造成财政困难;影响社会稳定影响社会

29、稳定;使实际使实际GDP减少减少.3.Stable prices The CPI measures the cost of a fixed market basket of consumer goods and services bought by the average urban consumer relative to the cost of that bundle during a particular base year.关于居民消费价格指数统计关于居民消费价格指数统计 我国编制价格指数的商品和服务项目，根据我国编制价格指数的商品和服务项目，根据城乡城乡11万户居民家庭消费支出构成资

30、料和有万户居民家庭消费支出构成资料和有关规定确定，目前共包括关规定确定，目前共包括八大类八大类，251个基本个基本分类，约分类，约700个代表品种。居民消费价格指数个代表品种。居民消费价格指数就是在对全国就是在对全国550个样本市县近个样本市县近3万个采价点万个采价点进行价格调查的基础上，根据国际规范的流进行价格调查的基础上，根据国际规范的流程和公式计算出来的。程和公式计算出来的。从从2011年年1月起，我国月起，我国CPI开始计算以开始计算以2010年为对年为对比比基期基期的价格指数序列。这是自的价格指数序列。这是自2001年计算年计算CPI定定基价格指数基价格指数以来，第二次进行基期例行更

31、换以来，第二次进行基期例行更换。中国中国CPICPI构成和各部分比重构成和各部分比重 20112011年最新调整为年最新调整为 ：1.食品食品31.79%2.烟酒及用品烟酒及用品3.49%3.居住居住17.22%4.交通通讯交通通讯9.95%5.医疗保健个人用品医疗保健个人用品9.64%6.衣着衣着8.52%7.家庭设备及维修服务家庭设备及维修服务5.64%8.娱乐教育文化用品及服务娱乐教育文化用品及服务13.75%Inflation can be defined as a process of continually rising prices.Deflation occurs when p

32、rices decline continually.Rate of inflation of consumer prices in percentage:CPI(this year)-CPI(last year)CPI(last year)100%Categories of inflation Low inflation occurs when prices rise slowly and predictably.we might define this as single-digit annual inflation rates.people trust money and are will

33、ing to hold on to money.Galloping inflation means inflation in the double-digit range a year.in these conditions,most contracts get indexed to a price index or to a foreign currency.money loses its value very quickly,so people hold only the bare-minimum amount of money needed for daily transaction.F

34、inancial markets wither away as capital flees abroad.People hoard goods,buy houses,and never lend money at low nominal interest rates.Hyper-inflation strikes an economy when prices are rising over a hundred percent or a thousand or a million or even a trillion percent a year.Prices are virtually mea

35、ningless and the price system breaks down.In general,a fast-growing economy usually experiences a higher price level than a slowly growing one.20092009年初津巴布年初津巴布韦通胀率韦通胀率已经达已经达到百分之十亿，到百分之十亿，居全球之冠居全球之冠,而而1美元可兑换美元可兑换250万万亿津巴布韦元。亿津巴布韦元。Causes of inflation The rate of inflation that rises steadily around

36、 a certain rate annually is called inertial rate of inflation.Demand-pull inflation occurs when aggregate demand rises more rapidly than the economys productive potential,pulling prices up to equilibrate aggregate supply and demand.Inflation resulting from rising costs during periods of high unemplo

37、yment and slack resource utilization is called cost-push inflation.Impacts of inflation An unexpected jump in prices would impoverish some people while enriching others.In addition to income redistribution effect,Inflation affects the real economy in two specific areas:total output and economic effi

38、ciency.在国民党统治时期，国民政府肆意滥发纸币，结果造成长期在国民党统治时期，国民政府肆意滥发纸币，结果造成长期恶性通货膨胀。据统计，从抗日战争爆发到国民政府崩溃恶性通货膨胀。据统计，从抗日战争爆发到国民政府崩溃（1937-19491937-1949）的十二年间，纸币发行量累计增加了）的十二年间，纸币发行量累计增加了14001400多多亿倍，致使同期物价上涨了亿倍，致使同期物价上涨了8500085000多亿倍，达到古今中外罕见多亿倍，达到古今中外罕见的程度。货币购买力一落再落，最后几乎变成废纸。有人曾的程度。货币购买力一落再落，最后几乎变成废纸。有人曾经做过这样的统计，以经做过这样的统计

39、，以100100法币购买力为例，法币购买力为例，19371937年可买年可买2 2头牛，头牛，19381938年为年为1 1头牛，头牛，19391939年为年为1 1头猪，头猪，19411941年为年为1 1袋面粉，袋面粉，19431943年为年为1 1只鸡，只鸡，19451945年为年为1 1条鱼，条鱼，19461946年为年为2 2个鸡蛋，个鸡蛋，19471947年为年为1 1个煤球，个煤球，19481948年年8 8月国民党货币改革时为月国民党货币改革时为3 3粒大米。至此，全国广大劳粒大米。至此，全国广大劳动人民陷于极端痛苦和贫困的境地。动人民陷于极端痛苦和贫困的境地。Fighting

40、 inflation One way to cure inflation involves the implementation of tight macroeconomic policy(tightening money supply),which requires contracting economic activity and raising unemployment.Another technique for adaptation to inflation is to“index”the economy.Indexing is a mechanism by which wages,p

41、rices,and contracts are partially or wholly compensated for changes in the general price level.cost of living adjustment,tax system,rents,and long-term industrial contracts.The adaptation to inflation shock will range paradox:the more a society insulates its members from inflation,the more unstable

42、inflation is likely to become.When general policies fail,countries resort to incomes policy to reduce inflation as well.However,no policy is complete and perfect.Most nations therefore seek a golden mean between completely stable prices and high inflation.4.Potential conflicts between goals The rela

43、tionship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate was discovered by AWPhillips,who studied carefully the data on unemployment and wages between 1861-1957 in the United Kingdom.The short-run Phillips CurveKey terms:Key terms:Macroeconomic vs.Microeconomic;GDP;Macroeconomic vs.Microeconomi

44、c;GDP;economic growth;GDP deflator;GDP gap;net economic growth;GDP deflator;GDP gap;net export;value-added;GNP;NI;DI;Unemployment rate;export;value-added;GNP;NI;DI;Unemployment rate;Frictional UnemploymentFrictional Unemployment;Structural Structural UnemploymentUnemployment;Cyclical UnemploymentCyc

45、lical Unemployment;Natural rate of Natural rate of unemploymentunemployment;The labor forceThe labor force;OkunOkuns Law;CPI;s Law;CPI;InflationInflation;DeflationDeflation;Low inflationLow inflation;Galloping Galloping inflationinflation;Hyper-inflationHyper-inflation;inertial rate of inertial rate

46、 of inflationinflation;Demand-pull inflationDemand-pull inflation;cost-push inflationcost-push inflation;Indexing;The short-run Phillips Curve;Indexing;The short-run Phillips Curve;golden mean;tight macroeconomic policy;income golden mean;tight macroeconomic policy;income redistribution;Potential GDP;Nominal GDP;Real GDP;redistribution;Potential GDP;Nominal GDP;Real GDP;business cycle;market economies;actual GDP;real business cycle;market economies;actual GDP;real economy;average annual growth rate;trade surplus;economy;average annual growth rate;trade surplus;trade deficit.trade deficit.