第9章失业和通货膨胀课件.ppt

1、第第9 9章章 失业和通货膨胀失业和通货膨胀本章要点2.短期经济波动与周期性失业3.货币供给与价格水平的关系5.失业与通货膨胀的短期权衡1.失业的类型4.总供求与通货膨胀的关系一、失业及其原因一、失业及其原因1.1.失业的类型失业的类型n摩擦性失业（Frictional U）：从一个工作转换到另一个工作的过渡中产生的失业。n结构性失业（Structural U）：由于劳动的供给结构与需求结构不相符而产生的失业n周期性失业（Cyclical U）：由于经济波动而产生的失业。2.2.自然失业率自然失业率（natural rate of unemployment）n经济在正常情况下都存在的失业率，主

2、要由摩擦性失业与结构性失业构成，具有长期性质。n长期失业率（自然失业率）是由劳动市场特点工作转换率、制度因素、信息状况等 决定的。一、失业及其原因一、失业及其原因The Unemployment Rate and the Natural Rate of Unemployment in the U.S.3.3.失业的原因失业的原因n工资粘性(wage stickiness)n最低工资法n工会和集体谈判n效率工资（efficiency wage）企业为提高工人生产率而支付的高于市场均 衡水平的工资。一、失业及其原因一、失业及其原因 3.3.失业的原因失业的原因n工资粘性(wage stickine

3、ss)n最低工资法n工会和集体谈判n效率工资（efficiency wage）企业支付效率工资的原因:影响劳动力队伍的质量 影响雇员的努力程度 降低雇员的辞职率 一、失业及其原因一、失业及其原因 3.3.失业的原因失业的原因n寻找寻找工作与摩擦性失业摩擦性失业的不可避免性 失业保险与摩擦性失业 公共政策与寻找工作 一、失业及其原因一、失业及其原因n结构性失业n经济波动造成的周期性失业 P AS AD Y*一、失业及其原因一、失业及其原因3.3.失业的原因失业的原因4.4.失业的代价失业的代价n减少产量n产量缺口与失业率变化之间存在一定的联系。n奥肯定律：失业率下降1，总是伴随着产量增长3，或产

4、量缺口减少3 一、失业及其原因一、失业及其原因n对收入分配产生不良影响n新进入劳动市场的人可能面对极大困难。n技术水平低的人更容易受到失业的打击。n穷人通常只能依靠劳动谋生，但他们恰恰是最容易失业的人群。一、失业及其原因一、失业及其原因4.4.失业的代价失业的代价二、通货膨胀二、通货膨胀 1.1.通货膨胀的定义通货膨胀的定义价格水平在一段时间内持续上升消费者物价指数、GDP 平减指数价格水平上涨的幅度 2.2.货币与通货膨胀货币与通货膨胀（1）物价水平与货币价值 n从物品角度反映物价水平提高：购买同样数量需要更多货币。n从货币角度反映物价水平提高：货币价值下降。二、通货膨胀二、通货膨胀（2）货

5、币价值与货币供求n货币需求量与价格水平的关系：价格水平上升，货币需求量增加。n货币供给量由中央银行控制，价格水平的调整保证货币供求量相等。n货币供给增加，货币价值下降，物价水平上升二、通货膨胀二、通货膨胀2.货币与通货膨胀货币与通货膨胀Money Supply,Money Demand,and the Equilibrium Price LevelCopyright 2004 South-WesternQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoney,1/PPrice Level,PQuantity fixedby the FedMoney supply01(Low)(High)(H

6、igh)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324Equilibriumvalue ofmoneyEquilibriumprice levelMoneydemandAThe Effects of Monetary InjectionCopyright 2004 South-WesternQuantity ofMoneyValue ofMoney,1/PPrice Level,PMoneydemand01(Low)(High)(High)(Low)1/21/43/411.3324M1MS1M2MS22.decreasesthe value ofmoney.3.andincreasesthe pr

7、icelevel.1.An increasein the moneysupply.AB（3）费雪效应 在长期，货币供给量的增加只影响名义利率，不影响实际利率，即名义利率对通货膨胀率作一对一的调整。名义利率（i）和实际利率（r）ri 或 ir 2.2.货币与通货膨胀货币与通货膨胀二、通货膨胀二、通货膨胀美国的名义利率与通货膨胀率百分比（每年）19601965197019751980198519901995200003691215通货膨胀名义利率Money and Prices During Four Hyperinflations(a)Austria(b)HungaryMoney supplyP

8、rice levelIndex(Jan.1921=100)Index(July 1921=100)Price level100,00010,0001,00010019251924192319221921Money supply100,00010,0001,00010019251924192319221921Money and Prices During Four Hyperinflations(c)Germany1Index(Jan.1921=100)(d)Poland100,000,000,000,0001,000,00010,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000100,

9、000,00010,000100MoneysupplyPrice level19251924192319221921Price levelMoneysupplyIndex(Jan.1921=100)10010,000,000100,0001,000,00010,0001,00019251924192319221921Annual Inflation Rates in Zimbabwe:1980-2008Year Rate Year Rate Year Rate 19807%199017%200055.22%198114%199148%2001112.10%198215%199240%20021

10、98.93%198319%199320%2003598.75%198410%199425%2004132.75%198510%199528%2005585.84%198615%199616%20061281%198710%199720%2007215000%19888%199848%2008237000000%198914%199956.90%Source:International Monetary Fund3.3.总供求与通货膨胀总供求与通货膨胀（1）需求拉上的通货膨胀 n由于总需求不断扩张导致的价格水平持续上涨 n总需求扩张可能来自IS曲线方面，也可能来自LM曲线方面。二、通货膨胀二、通

11、货膨胀需求拉上的通货膨胀PAD1AD3AD2ASP1P2P3Y （2）供给冲击的通货膨胀成本推进通货膨胀成本推进通货膨胀PP1P2ADSAS2SAS1Y二、通货膨胀二、通货膨胀3.3.总供求与通货膨胀总供求与通货膨胀4.4.通货膨胀的社会成本通货膨胀的社会成本（1）通货膨胀导致购买力下降吗？长期内，通货膨胀并未降低人们的实际购买力。二、通货膨胀二、通货膨胀（2）预期到的通货膨胀的成本n皮鞋成本：储户为了减少通货膨胀损失而频繁跑银行所花费的时间和资源 n菜单成本：厂商经常调整价格投入的时间和资源 n资源配置失误成本：通货膨胀扭曲产品的相对价格n税收扭曲引起的成本 n不便引起的成本二、通货膨胀二、

12、通货膨胀4.4.通货膨胀的社会成本通货膨胀的社会成本 How Inflation Raises the Tax Burden on SavingCopyright2004 South-Western（3）未预期到的通货膨胀的成本n任意的财富再分配 二、通货膨胀二、通货膨胀4.4.通货膨胀的社会成本通货膨胀的社会成本三、菲利普斯曲线三、菲利普斯曲线（Phillips Curve）1.1.菲利普斯曲线的含义菲利普斯曲线的含义n最初的菲利普斯曲线表示失业率与货币工资变化率之间的关系。n现在通常表示通货膨胀率与失业率之间关系。The Phillips CurveUnemploymentRate(per

13、cent)0InflationRate(percentper year)Phillips curve4B67A2Copyright 2004 South-WesternHow the Phillips Curve is Related to Aggregate Demand and Aggregate SupplyQuantityof Output0Short-runaggregatesupply(a)The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply UnemploymentRate(percent)0InflationRate(percen

14、tper year)PriceLevel(b)The Phillips CurvePhillips curveLow aggregatedemandHighaggregate demand(output is8,000)B46(output is7,500)A728,000(unemployment is 4%)106B(unemploymentis 7%)7,500102ACopyright 2004 South-Western 2.2.长期菲利普斯曲线长期菲利普斯曲线 n长期总供给曲线与价格无关 n长期菲利普斯曲线是一条位于自然失业率水平的垂直线 n长期菲利普斯曲线与长期总供给曲线是同一枚

15、硬币的两面三、菲利普斯曲线三、菲利普斯曲线（Phillips Curve）The Long-Run Phillips CurveUnemploymentRate0Natural rate ofunemploymentInflationRateLong-runPhillips curveBHighinflationLowinflationA2.but unemploymentremains at its natural ratein the long run.1.When the Fed increases the growth rate of the money supply,the rate

16、 of inflation increases.Copyright 2004 South-WesternHow the Phillips Curve is Related to Aggregate Demand and Aggregate SupplyQuantityof OutputNatural rateof outputNatural rate ofunemployment0PriceLevelPAD1 LRAS LRAS(a)The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply UnemploymentRate0InflationRate

17、(b)The Phillips CurveAAD2BAP2BCopyright 2004 South-Westernn对通货膨胀预期的调整把短期与长期菲利普斯曲线联系起来。n弗里德曼和费尔普斯引入预期通胀率后的菲利普斯曲线：3.3.预期与短期菲利普斯曲线的移动预期与短期菲利普斯曲线的移动*()eUU 三、菲利普斯曲线三、菲利普斯曲线（Phillips Curve）How Expected Inflation Shifts the Short-Run Phillips CurveUnemploymentRate0Natural rate ofunemploymentInflationRateLo

18、ng-runPhillips curveShort-run Phillips curvewith high expectedinflationShort-run Phillips curvewith low expectedinflation1.Expansionary policy movesthe economy up along the short-run Phillips curve.2.but in the long run,expectedinflation rises,and the short-run Phillips curve shifts to the right.CBA

19、Copyright 2004 South-Western重要结论：决策者面临着通货膨胀和失业的交替关系，但只是暂时的。如果决策者利用这种交替关系，这种交替关系就不存在了。三、菲利普斯曲线三、菲利普斯曲线（Phillips Curve）3.3.预期与短期菲利普斯曲线的移动预期与短期菲利普斯曲线的移动 4.4.供给冲击与菲利普斯曲线移动供给冲击与菲利普斯曲线移动 AS曲线的不利移动（AS下降）使菲利普斯曲线向右上方移动：同样的失业率对应更高的通胀率。三、菲利普斯曲线三、菲利普斯曲线（Phillips Curve）An Adverse Shock to Aggregate SupplyQuantit

20、yof Output0PriceLevelAD(a)The Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply UnemploymentRate0InflationRate(b)The Phillips Curve3.andraises the price level.AS2AS A1.An adverseshift in aggregate supply.4.giving policymakers a less favorable tradeoffbetween unemploymentand inflation.BP2Y2PAY P C12.low

21、ers output.PC2BCopyright 2004 South-Western5.5.降低通胀的代价降低通胀的代价n牺牲率（the sacrifice ratio）紧缩的货币或财政政策为使通货膨胀率降低1%而导 致的产量损失的百分比。牺牲率的大小取决于菲利普斯曲线的斜率、通胀预 期对新货币、财政政策的调整速度。三、菲利普斯曲线三、菲利普斯曲线（Phillips Curve）Disinflationary Monetary Policy in the Short Run and the Long RunUnemploymentRate0Natural rate ofunemploymen

22、tInflationRateLong-runPhillips curveShort-run Phillips curvewith high expectedinflationShort-run Phillips curvewith low expectedinflation1.Contractionary policy movesthe economy down along the short-run Phillips curve.2.but in the long run,expectedinflation falls,and the short-run Phillips curve shi

23、fts to the left.BCACopyright 2004 South-Western n理性预期与反通胀 理性预期（rational expectation）人们利用一切可能利用的信息对未来所形成 的预期。如果人们的预期是理性的，反通货膨胀 就没有代价。三、菲利普斯曲线三、菲利普斯曲线（Phillips Curve）5.5.降低通胀的代价降低通胀的代价The Phillips Curve in the 1960s (U.S.)123456789100246810UnemploymentRate(percent)Inflation Rate(percent per year)19681

24、966196119621963196719651964Copyright 2004 South-Western The Breakdown of the Phillips Curve (U.S.)123456789100246810UnemploymentRate(percent)Inflation Rate(percent per year)1973196619721971196119621963196719681969197019651964Copyright 2004 South-WesternThe Supply Shocks of the 1970s(U.S.)12345678910

25、0246810UnemploymentRate(percent)Inflation Rate(percent per year)1972197519811976197819791980197319741977Copyright 2004 South-Western The Volcker Disinflation123456789100246810UnemploymentRate(percent)Inflation Rate(percent per year)1980198119821984198619851979A1983B1987CCopyright 2004 South-WesternThe Greenspan Era123456789100246810UnemploymentRate(percent)Inflation Rate(percent per year)1984199119851992198619931994198819871995199620021998199920002001198919901997Copyright 2004 South-Western