02决策支持系统模型与支持解析课件.ppt
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- 02 决策 支持系统 模型 支持 解析 课件
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1、 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-1Chapter 2Decision-Making Systems,Models,and SupportTurban,Aronson,and Liang Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,Seventh Edition 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Int
2、elligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-2Learning Objectives Learn the basic concepts of decision making.Understand systems approach.Learn Simons four phases of decision making.Understand the concepts of rationality and bounded rationality.Differentiate betwixt making a choice and est
3、ablishing a principle of choice.Learn which factors affect decision making.Learn how DSS supports decision making in practice.2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-3Standard Motor Products Shifts Gears Into Team-Based Decision-Makin
4、g Vignette Team-based decision making Increased information sharing Daily feedback Self-empowerment Shifting responsibility towards teams Elimination of middle management 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-4Decision Making Proces
5、s of choosing amongst alternative courses of action for the purpose of attaining a goal or goals.The four phases of the decision process are:Intelligence Design Choice implementation 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-5Systems St
6、ructure Inputs Processes Outputs Feedback from output to decision maker Separated from environment by boundary Surrounded by environmentInputProcessesOutputboundaryEnvironment 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-6 2005 Prentice Ha
7、ll,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-7System Types Closed system Independent Takes no inputs Delivers no outputs to the environment Black Box Open system Accepts inputs Delivers outputs to environment 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems an
8、d Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-8Models Used for DSS Iconic Small physical replication of system Analog Behavioral representation of system May not look like system Quantitative(mathematical)Demonstrates relationships between systems 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Sy
9、stems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-9 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-10 Phases of Decision-Making Simons original three phases:Intelligence Design Choice He added fourth phase later:Implementat
10、ion Book adds fifth stage:Monitoring 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-11Decision-Making Intelligence Phase Scan the environment Analyze organizational goals Collect data Identify problem Categorize problem Programmed and non-pr
11、ogrammed Decomposed into smaller parts Assess ownership and responsibility for problem resolution 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-12Decision-Making Design Phase Develop alternative courses of action Analyze potential solutions
12、 Create model Test for feasibility Validate results Select a principle of choice Establish objectives Incorporate into models Risk assessment and acceptance Criteria and constraints 2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang2-13Decision-M
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