Chap018-Equity-Valuation-Models-《投资学》博迪-第九版-英文教学课件.ppt

1、INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSCopyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.All rights reserved.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCHAPTER 18Equity Valuation ModelsINVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSValuation:Fundamental Analysis Fundamental analysis models a companys value by assessing its current and future profitabilit

2、y.The purpose of fundamental analysis is to identify mispriced stocks relative to some measure of“true”value derived from financial data.INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS Balance Sheet Models Dividend Discount Models(DDM)Price/Earnings Ratios Free Cash Flow ModelsModels of Equity ValuationINVESTMENTS|BO

3、DIE,KANE,MARCUSValuation by Comparables Compare valuation ratios of firm to industry averages.Ratios like price/sales are useful for valuing start-ups that have yet to generate positive earnings.INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSLimitations of Book Value Book values are based on historical cost,not actua

4、l market values.It is possible,but uncommon,for market value to be less than book value.“Floor”or minimum value is the liquidation value per share.Tobins q is the ratio of market price to replacement cost.INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSIntrinsic Value vs.Market Price The return on a stock is composed

5、of dividends and capital gains or losses.The expected HPR may be more or less than the required rate of return,based on the stocks risk.1100()()Expected HPR=()E DE PPE rPINVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSRequired Return CAPM gives the required return,k:If the stock is priced correctly,k should equal expe

6、cted return.k is the market capitalization rate.()fMfkrE rrINVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS The intrinsic value(IV)is the“true”value,according to a model.The market value(MV)is the consensus value of all market participantsTrading Signal:IV MV BuyIV kbROEkbEPx110INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSTable 18.3

7、Effect of ROE and Plowback on Growth and the P/E RatioINVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSP/E and Growth Rate Wall Street rule of thumb:The growth rate is roughly equal to the P/E ratio.“If the P/E ratio of Coca Cola is 15,youd expect the company to be growing at about 15%per year,etc.But if the P/E ratio

8、is less than the growth rate,you may have found yourself a bargain.”Quote from Peter Lynch in One Up on Wall Street.INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSP/E Ratios and Stock Risk When risk is higher,k is higher;therefore,P/E is lower.1PbEkgINVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSPitfalls in P/E Analysis Use of account

9、ing earningsEarnings ManagementChoices on GAAP Inflation Reported earnings fluctuate around the business cycleINVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSFigure 18.3 P/E Ratios of the S&P 500 Index and InflationINVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSFigure 18.4 Earnings Growth for Two Companies INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUS

10、Figure 18.6 P/E Ratios for Different Industries,2007INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSOther Comparative Value Approaches Price-to-book ratio Price-to-cash-flow ratio Price-to-sales ratioINVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSFigure 18.7 Market Valuation Statistics INVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSFree Cash Flow Approa

11、ch Value the firm by discounting free cash flow at WACC.Free cash flow to the firm,FCFF,equals:After tax EBITPlus depreciationMinus capital expendituresMinus increase in net working capitalINVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSComparing the Valuation Models In practiceValues from these models may differAnalysts are always forced to make simplifying assumptionsINVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSThe Aggregate Stock Market Explaining Past Behavior Forecasting the Stock MarketINVESTMENTS|BODIE,KANE,MARCUSTable 18.4 S&P 500 Price Forecasts Under Various Scenarios