Chap30宏观经济政策的五个争论问题课件.ppt

1、宏观经济政策的五个争论问题宏观经济政策的五个争论问题Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy第第30章章Chapter 30（对应教材第（对应教材第36章）章）关于宏观经济政策的五个争论问题关于宏观经济政策的五个争论问题Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy1.货币于财政政策决策者应该努力稳定经济货币于财政政策决策者应该努力稳定经济吗？吗？Should monetary and fiscal policymakers try to stabilize the economy?2.货币政策应该按规则还是相机抉择？货币政策应

2、该按规则还是相机抉择？Should monetary policy be made by rule rather than by discretion?3.中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标吗？中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标吗？Should the central bank aim for zero inflation?关于宏观经济政策的五个争论问题关于宏观经济政策的五个争论问题Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy4.政府应该平衡其预算吗？政府应该平衡其预算吗？Should the government balance its budget?5.应该为了

3、鼓励储蓄而修改税法吗？应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法吗？Should the tax laws be reformed to encourage saving?1.货币与财政政策决策者应该货币与财政政策决策者应该努力稳定经济吗？努力稳定经济吗？Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try to Stabilize the Economy?赞成：决策者应该努力稳定经济赞成：决策者应该努力稳定经济Pro:Policymakers should try to stabilize the economyu经济天生是不稳定的，如果放任不管，经济就倾经济天生是不稳定的

4、，如果放任不管，经济就倾向于发生波动。向于发生波动。The economy is inherently unstable,and left on its own will fluctuate.u政策能调节总需求以便抵消天生的不稳定性，并政策能调节总需求以便抵消天生的不稳定性，并减轻经济波动的严重性。减轻经济波动的严重性。Policy can manage aggregate demand in order to offset this inherent instability and reduce the severity of economic fluctuations.赞成：决策者应该努力

5、稳定经济赞成：决策者应该努力稳定经济Pro:Policymakers should try to stabilize the economyu没有理由让社会受到经济周期高涨与低落的折没有理由让社会受到经济周期高涨与低落的折磨。磨。There is no reason for society to suffer through the booms and busts of the business cycle.u货币与财政政策可以稳定总需求，从而稳定生货币与财政政策可以稳定总需求，从而稳定生产和就业。产和就业。Monetary and fiscal policy can stabilize ag

6、gregate demand and,thereby,production and employment.反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济Con:Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economyu货币与财政货币与财政 政策并不能立即影响经济，而是其作政策并不能立即影响经济，而是其作用要有一个相当长的无法预知的时滞。用要有一个相当长的无法预知的时滞。Monetary policy affects the economy with long and unpredictable lags between the ne

7、ed to act and the time that it takes for these policies to work.u许多研究表明，在作出货币政策变动的许多研究表明，在作出货币政策变动的6个月之个月之内，这种变动对总需求的影响很小。内，这种变动对总需求的影响很小。Many studies indicate that changes in monetary policy have little effect on aggregate demand until about six months after the change is made.反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济反对：决策者

8、不应该努力稳定经济Con:Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economyu财政政策的作用存在时滞源于政府改变支出财政政策的作用存在时滞源于政府改变支出与税收的漫长政治程序。与税收的漫长政治程序。Fiscal policy works with a lag because of the long political process that governs changes in spending and taxes.u提出、通过和实施一项重要的财政政策需要提出、通过和实施一项重要的财政政策需要好几年的时间。好几年的时间。It can ta

9、ke years to propose,pass,and implement a major change in fiscal policy.反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济Con:Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economyu通常，决策者可能无形中扩大了而不是缩小了通常，决策者可能无形中扩大了而不是缩小了经济波动的程度。经济波动的程度。All too often policymakers can inadvertently exacerbate rather than mitigate the magni

10、tude of economic fluctuations.u如果决策者能够消除所有经济波动，这样做是如果决策者能够消除所有经济波动，这样做是合意的，但这是一个不现实的目标。合意的，但这是一个不现实的目标。It might be desirable if policy makers could eliminate all economic fluctuations,but this is not a realistic goal.货币政策应该按规则还是相货币政策应该按规则还是相机抉择机抉择Should Monetary Policy Be Made by Rule Rather Than by

11、 Discretion?赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定Pro:Monetary policy should be made by ruleu相机抉择的货币政策导致权力的无能与滥用。相机抉择的货币政策导致权力的无能与滥用。Discretionary monetary policy can suffer from incompetence and abuse of power.u中央银行领导人与政治家在多大程度上结盟，中央银行领导人与政治家在多大程度上结盟，相机抉择政策就会引起反映大选日期的经济波相机抉择政策就会引起反映大选日期的经济波动，这种波动称为政治性经济周期。动，

12、这种波动称为政治性经济周期。To the extent that central bankers ally themselves with politicians,discretionary policy can lead to economic fluctuations that reflect the electoral calendar the political business cycle.赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定Pro:Monetary policy should be made by ruleu 决策者说他们要做什么和实际作了什么之间存决策者说他们

13、要做什么和实际作了什么之间存在不一致性，这就是政策的时间不一致性。在不一致性，这就是政策的时间不一致性。There may be a discrepancy between what policymakers say they will do and what they actually do called time inconsistency of policy.u因为决策者经常出现这种时间不一致性，当中央因为决策者经常出现这种时间不一致性，当中央银行领导人宣布他们打算降低通货膨胀率时，人银行领导人宣布他们打算降低通货膨胀率时，人们表示怀疑。们表示怀疑。Because policymaker

14、s are so often time inconsistent,people are skeptical when central bankers announce their intentions to reduce the rate of inflation.赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定Pro:Monetary policy should be made by ruleu美联储保持货币供应的适度与稳定的增长美联储保持货币供应的适度与稳定的增长，将能限制无能，权力的滥用和时间的不，将能限制无能，权力的滥用和时间的不一致性。一致性。Committing the F

15、ed to a moderate and steady growth of the money supply would limit incompetence,abuse of power,and time inconsistency.反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定Con:Monetary policy should not be made by ruleu相机抉择一个最重要的优点是灵活性。相机抉择一个最重要的优点是灵活性。An important advantage of discretionary monetary policy is its flexib

16、ility.u固定的政策将会限定决策者根据经济的固定的政策将会限定决策者根据经济的变动周期作出反应的能力。变动周期作出反应的能力。Inflexible policies will limit the ability of policymakers to respond to changing economic circumstances.反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定Con:Monetary policy should not be made by ruleu所谓的相机抉择问题主要是假想的。所谓的相机抉择问题主要是假想的。The alleged problem

17、s with discretion and abuse of power are largely hypothetical.u并且，政治性经济周期的实际中要性很并且，政治性经济周期的实际中要性很不明显。不明显。Also,the importance of the political business cycle is far from clear.中央银行应该把零通货膨胀中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标吗？作为目标吗？Should The Central Bank Aim for Zero Inflation?赞成：中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标赞成：中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标Pro:

18、The central bank should aim for zero inflationu通货膨胀并没有给社会带来什么好处，但引起通货膨胀并没有给社会带来什么好处，但引起了一些实际成本。了一些实际成本。Inflation confers no benefit to society,but it imposes several real costs.u皮鞋成本皮鞋成本 Shoeleather costsu菜单成本菜单成本 Menu costsu相对价格变动性提高相对价格变动性提高 Increased variability of relative pricesu税收负担不合意的变动税收负担不

19、合意的变动 Unintended changes in tax liabilitiesu混乱与不方便混乱与不方便 Confusion and inconvenienceu财富任意再分配财富任意再分配 Arbitrary redistribution of wealth赞成：中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标赞成：中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标Pro:The central bank should aim for zero inflationu降低通货膨胀是一项暂时有成本而长期降低通货膨胀是一项暂时有成本而长期有好处的政策。有好处的政策。Reducing inflation is a polic

20、y with temporary costs and permanent benefits.u一旦反通货膨胀的衰退过去，零通货膨一旦反通货膨胀的衰退过去，零通货膨胀的好处就会持续到未来。胀的好处就会持续到未来。Once the disinflationary recession is over,the benefits of zero inflation would persist.反对：中央银不应该把零通货膨胀作为目标反对：中央银不应该把零通货膨胀作为目标Con:The central bank should not aim for zero inflationu零通货膨胀是不太可能做到的，

21、它是以产量、零通货膨胀是不太可能做到的，它是以产量、失业和较高的社会成本为代价的。失业和较高的社会成本为代价的。Zero inflation is probably unattainable,and to get there involves output,unemployment,and social costs that are too high.u决策者可以实际上并不降低通货膨胀而较少许决策者可以实际上并不降低通货膨胀而较少许多通货膨胀的成本。多通货膨胀的成本。Policymakers can reduce many of the costs of inflation without a

22、ctually reducing inflation.财政决策者应该减少政府债财政决策者应该减少政府债务吗？务吗？Should Fiscal Policymakers reduce the Government Debt?赞成：政府应该平衡其预算赞成：政府应该平衡其预算Pro:The government should balance its budgetu预算赤字对后代产生了不合理的影响，提高了他们的预算赤字对后代产生了不合理的影响，提高了他们的税收负担，减少了他们的收入。税收负担，减少了他们的收入。Budget deficits impose an unjustifiable burden

23、 on future generations by raising their taxes and lowering their incomes.u当债务和累积的利息到期后，未来的纳税人将面临一当债务和累积的利息到期后，未来的纳税人将面临一个困难的选择：个困难的选择：When the debts and accumulated interest come due,future taxpayers will face a difficult choice:u他们要纳更高的税，享有较少的政府支出，或两者都有。他们要纳更高的税，享有较少的政府支出，或两者都有。They can pay higher

24、taxes,enjoy less government spending,or both.赞成：政府应该平衡其预算赞成：政府应该平衡其预算Pro:The government should balance its budgetu把当前政府享有好处的成本转移到下一代，这明把当前政府享有好处的成本转移到下一代，这明显对未来的纳税人不公正。显对未来的纳税人不公正。By shifting the cost of current government benefits to future generations,there is a bias against future taxpayers.u赤字减少

25、了国民储蓄，导致资本存量的减少，这赤字减少了国民储蓄，导致资本存量的减少，这又降低了生产率和增长。又降低了生产率和增长。Deficits reduce national saving,leading to a smaller stock of capital,which reduces productivity and growth.反对：政府不应该平衡其预算反对：政府不应该平衡其预算Con:The government should not balance its budgetu政府赤字问题往往被夸大了。政府赤字问题往往被夸大了。The problem with the deficit is

26、 often exaggerated.u债务转移到未来是正确的，因为政府购买创造债务转移到未来是正确的，因为政府购买创造的一些好处将会延伸到未来。的一些好处将会延伸到未来。The transfer of debt to the future may be justified because some government purchases produce benefits well into the future.反对：政府不应该平衡其预算反对：政府不应该平衡其预算Con:The government should not balance its budgetu政府债务能继续增加，因为人口的

27、增加政府债务能继续增加，因为人口的增加和技术的进步提高了政府偿还债务利息和技术的进步提高了政府偿还债务利息的能力。的能力。The government debt can continue to rise because population growth and technological progress increase the nations ability to pay the interest on the debt.应该修改税法来鼓励储蓄吗？应该修改税法来鼓励储蓄吗？Should The Tax Laws Be Reformed to Encourage Saving?赞成：应当为

28、鼓励储蓄而修改税法赞成：应当为鼓励储蓄而修改税法Pro:Tax laws should be reformed to encourage savingu一国的储蓄率是其长期经济繁荣的关键决定因素。一国的储蓄率是其长期经济繁荣的关键决定因素。A nations saving rate is a key determinant of its long-run economic prosperity.u一国的生产能力又主要由它为未来储蓄和投资了多少而一国的生产能力又主要由它为未来储蓄和投资了多少而决定。决定。A nations productive capability is determined

29、largely by how much it saves and invests for the future.u当储蓄率较高时，更多的资源用于新工厂和设备的投资当储蓄率较高时，更多的资源用于新工厂和设备的投资。When the saving rate is higher,more resources are available for investment in new plant and equipment.赞成：应当为鼓励储蓄而修改税法赞成：应当为鼓励储蓄而修改税法Pro:Tax laws should be reformed to encourage savingu美国税制用各种方式抑

30、制储蓄，例如对美国税制用各种方式抑制储蓄，例如对来自资本的收入征收重税，降低了有大来自资本的收入征收重税，降低了有大量累积财富那些人的利益等。量累积财富那些人的利益等。The U.S.tax system discourages saving in many ways,such as by heavily taxing the income from capital and by reducing benefits for those who have accumulated wealth.赞成：应当为鼓励储蓄而修改税法赞成：应当为鼓励储蓄而修改税法Pro:Tax laws should be

31、 reformed to encourage savingu资本收入的重税政策带来的后果是储蓄资本收入的重税政策带来的后果是储蓄减少、资本积累减少、劳动生产率降低减少、资本积累减少、劳动生产率降低以及经济增长减少。以及经济增长减少。uThe consequences of high capital income tax policies are reduced saving,reduced capital accumulation,lower labor productivity,and reduced economic growth.赞成：应当为鼓励储蓄而修改税法赞成：应当为鼓励储蓄而修改税

32、法Pro:Tax laws should be reformed to encourage savingu对于目前的税收政策的一种可供选择的方法，对于目前的税收政策的一种可供选择的方法，许多经济学家都支持用消费税。许多经济学家都支持用消费税。An alternative to current tax policies advocated by many economists is a consumption tax.u根据消费税，家庭根据它的支出而不是收入进根据消费税，家庭根据它的支出而不是收入进行征税。行征税。With a consumption tax,a household pays t

33、axes based on what it spends not on what it earns.u用于储蓄的授予在以后提取并用于消费品支持之前免用于储蓄的授予在以后提取并用于消费品支持之前免税。税。Income that is saved is exempt from taxation until the saving is later withdrawn and spent on consumption goods.反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法Con:Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage savi

34、ngu为促进储蓄而产生的税法变动主要有利于富为促进储蓄而产生的税法变动主要有利于富人。人。Many of the changes in tax laws to stimulate saving would primarily benefit the wealthy.u高收入家庭储蓄占收入的比例高于低收入家庭高收入家庭储蓄占收入的比例高于低收入家庭。High-income households save a higher fraction of their income than low-income households.u任何有利于进行储蓄的人的税收变动也倾向于任何有利于进行储蓄的人的税收变

35、动也倾向于有利于高收入的人。有利于高收入的人。Any tax change that favors people who save will also tend to favor people with high incomes.反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法Con:Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage savingu减轻富人的税收负担将引起一个更不平减轻富人的税收负担将引起一个更不平等的社会。等的社会。Reducing the tax burden on the wealthy would lead t

36、o a less egalitarian society.u这些做法也迫使政府增加穷人的税收负这些做法也迫使政府增加穷人的税收负担。担。This would also force the government to raise the tax burden on the poor.反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法反对：不应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法Con:Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage savingu通过减少政府预算赤字而提高公共储蓄通过减少政府预算赤字而提高公共储蓄提供了一种增加国民储蓄的直接而且公提供了一种增加国民储蓄的直接而且公平

37、的方法。平的方法。Raising public saving by eliminating the governments budget deficit would provide a more direct and equitable way to increase national saving.总结总结Summaryu积极货币与财政政策的支持者认为，经济本质上积极货币与财政政策的支持者认为，经济本质上是不稳定的，并相信货币与财政政策能被用来抵是不稳定的，并相信货币与财政政策能被用来抵消这种内在的不稳定性。消这种内在的不稳定性。Advocates of active monetary an

38、d fiscal policy view the economy as inherently unstable and believe policy can be used to offset this inherent instability.u积极政策的批评者强调，政策对经济的影响存在积极政策的批评者强调，政策对经济的影响存在时滞，而且我们预期未来经济状况的能力是很差时滞，而且我们预期未来经济状况的能力是很差的，这导致了经济的不稳定。的，这导致了经济的不稳定。Critics of active policy emphasize that policy affects the economy

39、 with a lag and our ability to forecast future economic conditions is poor,both of which can lead to policy being destabilizing.总结总结Summaryu货币政策规则的支持者认为，相机抉择的政策货币政策规则的支持者认为，相机抉择的政策会饱受无能、滥用权力与时间不一致性之苦。会饱受无能、滥用权力与时间不一致性之苦。Advocates of rules for monetary policy argue that discretionary policy can suffe

40、r from incompetence,abuse of power,and time inconsistency.u货币政策规则的批评者认为，相机抉择的政策货币政策规则的批评者认为，相机抉择的政策在对变化着的经济环境作出反应时较为灵活。在对变化着的经济环境作出反应时较为灵活。Critics of rules for monetary policy argue that discretionary policy is more flexible in responding to economic circumstances.总结总结Summaryu零通货膨胀目标的支持者强调，通货膨胀有许零通货

41、膨胀目标的支持者强调，通货膨胀有许多成本，而且即使有好处也很少。多成本，而且即使有好处也很少。Advocates of a zero-inflation target emphasize that inflation has many costs and few if any benefits.u零通货膨胀目标额达批评者声称，温和的通货零通货膨胀目标额达批评者声称，温和的通货膨胀给社会只带来微不足道的成本，而降低通膨胀给社会只带来微不足道的成本，而降低通货膨胀所必需的衰退则代价高昂。货膨胀所必需的衰退则代价高昂。Critics of a zero-inflation target claim

42、that moderate inflation imposes only small costs on society,whereas the recession necessary to reduce inflation is quite costly.总结总结Summaryu平衡政府预算的支持者认为，预算赤字通过增平衡政府预算的支持者认为，预算赤字通过增加子孙后代的税收并减少他们的收入而不公正加子孙后代的税收并减少他们的收入而不公正地把负担加在他们身上。地把负担加在他们身上。Advocates of reducing the government debt argue that the d

43、ebt imposes a burden on future generations by raising their taxes and lowering their incomes.u平衡政府预算的批评者认为，赤字只是财政政平衡政府预算的批评者认为，赤字只是财政政策的一小部分。策的一小部分。Critics of reducing the government debt argue that the debt is only one small piece of fiscal policy.总结总结Summaryu税收激励储蓄的支持者指出，我们的社会用许多方法抑税收激励储蓄的支持者指出，我们

44、的社会用许多方法抑制储蓄，例如对资本收入征收重税和减少那些积累了财制储蓄，例如对资本收入征收重税和减少那些积累了财富的人的利益。富的人的利益。Advocates of tax incentives for saving point out that our society discourages saving in many ways such as taxing income from capital and reducing benefits for those who have accumulated wealth.u税收激励储蓄的反对者认为，所提出的许多刺激储蓄的税收激励储蓄的反对者认为，所提出的许多刺激储蓄的变动主要有利于富人，对私人储蓄只有微不足道的影响变动主要有利于富人，对私人储蓄只有微不足道的影响。Critics of tax incentives argue that many proposed changes to stimulate saving would primarily benefit the wealthy and also might have only a small effect on private saving.