预算编制-第七章-净现值和资本预算-课件.ppt

1、Chapter Outline7.1 Incremental Cash Flows7.2 The Baldwin Company:An Example7.3 Inflation and Capital Budgeting7.4 Investments of Unequal Lives:The Equivalent Annual Cost Method7.5 Summary and Conclusions7.1 Incremental Cash Flows Cash flows matternot accounting earnings.Sunk costs dont matter.Increm

2、ental cash flows matter.Opportunity costs matter.Side effects like cannibalism and erosion matter.Taxes matter:we want incremental after-tax cash flows.Inflation matters.Cash FlowsNot Accounting Earnings.Consider depreciation expense.You never write a check made out to“depreciation”.Much of the work

3、 in evaluating a project lies in taking accounting numbers and generating cash flows.Incremental Cash Flows Sunk costs are not relevant Just because“we have come this far”does not mean that we should continue to throw good money after bad.Opportunity costs do matter.Just because a project has a posi

4、tive NPV that does not mean that it should also have automatic acceptance.Specifically if another project with a higher NPV would have to be passed up we should not proceed.Side effects matter.Erosion and cannibalism are both bad things.If our new product causes existing customers to demand less of

5、current products,we need to recognize that.Estimating Cash Flows Cash Flows from Operations Recall that:Operating Cash Flow=EBIT Taxes+Depreciation Net Capital Spending Dont forget salvage value(after tax,of course).Changes in Net Working Capital Recall that when the project winds down,we enjoy a re

6、turn of net working capital.Interest Expense Later chapters will deal with the impact that the amount of debt that a firm has in its capital structure has on firm value.For now,its enough to assume that the firms level of debt(hence interest expense)is independent of the project at hand.7.2 The Bald

7、win Company:An ExampleCosts of test marketing(already spent):$250,000.Current market value of proposed factory site(which we own):$150,000.Cost of bowling ball machine:$100,000(depreciated according to ACRS 5-year life).Increase in net working capital:$10,000.Production(in units)by year during 5-yea

8、r life of the machine:5,000,8,000,12,000,10,000,6,000.Price during first year is$20;price increases 2%per year thereafter.Production costs during first year are$10 per unit and increase 10%per year thereafter.Annual inflation rate:5%Working Capital:initially$10,000 changes with sales.The Worksheet f

9、or Cash Flows of the Baldwin CompanyYear 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4 Year 5 Investments:(1)Bowling ball machine100.00 21.76*(2)Accumulated 20.0052.0071.2082.72 94.24 depreciation(3)Adjusted basis of 80.0048.0028.8017.28 5.76 machine after depreciation(end of year)(4)Opportunity cost150.00 150.00(wareh

10、ouse)(5)Net working capital 10.00 10.0016.3224.9721.22 0(end of year)(6)Change in net 10.006.32 8.653.75 21.22 working capital(7)Total cash flow of260.00 6.32 8.653.75 192.98 investment(1)+(4)+(6)*We assume that the ending market value of the capital investment at year 5 is$30,000.Capital gain is th

11、e difference between ending market value and adjusted basis of the machine.The adjusted basis is the original purchase price of the machine less depreciation.The capital gain is$24,240(=$30,000$5,760).We will assume the incremental corporate tax for Baldwin on this project is 34 percent.Capital gain

12、s are now taxed at the ordinary income rate,so the capital gains tax due is$8,240 0.34 ($30,000$5,760).The after-tax salvage value is$30,000 0.34 ($30,000$5,760)=21,760.($thousands)(All cash flows occur at the end of the year.)The Worksheet for Cash Flows of the Baldwin CompanyAt the end of the proj

13、ect,the warehouse is unencumbered,so we can sell it if we want to.($thousands)(All cash flows occur at the end of the year.)Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4 Year 5 Investments:(1)Bowling ball machine100.00 21.76*(2)Accumulated 20.0052.0071.2082.72 94.24 depreciation(3)Adjusted basis of 80.0048.0028.80

14、17.28 5.76 machine after depreciation(end of year)(4)Opportunity cost150.00 150.00(warehouse)(5)Net working capital 10.00 10.0016.3224.9721.22 0(end of year)(6)Change in net 10.006.32 8.653.75 21.22 working capital(7)Total cash flow of260.00 6.32 8.653.75 192.98 investment(1)+(4)+(6)The Worksheet fo

15、r Cash Flows of the Baldwin Company(continued)Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4 Year 5Income:(8)Sales Revenues100.00163.00249.72212.20 129.90 ($thousands)(All cash flows occur at the end of the year.)Recall that production(in units)by year during 5-year life of the machine is given by:(5,000,8,000,12,0

16、00,10,000,6,000).Price during first year is$20 and increases 2%per year thereafter.Sales revenue in year 3=12,000$20(1.02)2=12,000$20.81=$249,720.The Worksheet for Cash Flows of the Baldwin Company(continued)Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4 Year 5Income:(8)Sales Revenues100.00163.00249.72212.20 129.90

17、 (9)Operating costs 50.00 88.00145.20 133.10 87.84($thousands)(All cash flows occur at the end of the year.)Again,production(in units)by year during 5-year life of the machine is given by:(5,000,8,000,12,000,10,000,6,000).Production costs during first year(per unit)are$10 and(increase 10%per year th

18、ereafter).Production costs in year 2=8,000$10(1.10)1=$88,000The Worksheet for Cash Flows of the Baldwin Company(continued)Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4 Year 5Income:(8)Sales Revenues100.00163.00249.72212.20 129.90 (9)Operating costs 50.00 88.00145.20 133.10 87.84(10)Depreciation 20.00 32.00 19.20 1

19、1.52 11.52($thousands)(All cash flows occur at the end of the year.)Depreciation is calculated using the Accelerated Cost Recovery System(shown at right)Our cost basis is$100,000Depreciation charge in year 4=$100,000(.1152)=$11,520.YearACRS%120.00%232.00%319.20%411.52%511.52%65.76%Total 100.00%The W

20、orksheet for Cash Flows of the Baldwin Company(continued)Year 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4 Year 5Income:(8)Sales Revenues100.00163.00249.72212.20 129.90 (9)Operating costs 50.00 88.00145.20 133.10 87.84(10)Depreciation 20.00 32.00 19.20 11.52 11.52(11)Income before taxes 30.00 43.20 85.32 67.58 30.54(8

21、)(9)-(10)(12)Tax at 34 percent 10.20 14.69 29.01 22.98 10.38(13)Net Income 19.80 28.51 56.31 44.60 20.16($thousands)(All cash flows occur at the end of the year.)Incremental After Tax Cash Flows of the Baldwin CompanyYear 0Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5(1)SalesRevenues$100.00$163.00$249.72$212.20$12

22、9.90(2)Operatingcosts-50.00-88.00-145.20133.10-87.84(3)Taxes-10.20-14.69-29.01-22.98-10.38(4)OCF(1)(2)-(3)39.8060.5175.5156.1231.68(5)TotalCFofInvestment260.6.328.653.75192.98(6)IATCF(4)+(5)260.39.8054.1966.8659.87224.6605.588,51$)10.1(66.224$)10.1(87.59$)10.1(86.66$)10.1(19.54$)10.1(80.39$260$5432N

23、PVNPV7.3 Inflation and Capital Budgeting Inflation is an important fact of economic life and must be considered in capital budgeting.Consider the relationship between interest rates and inflation,often referred to as the Fisher relationship:(1+Nominal Rate)=(1+Real Rate)(1+Inflation Rate)For low rat

24、es of inflation,this is often approximated as Real Rate Nominal Rate Inflation Rate While the nominal rate in the U.S.has fluctuated with inflation,most of the time the real rate has exhibited far less variance than the nominal rate.When accounting for inflation in capital budgeting,one must compare

25、 real cash flows discounted at real rates or nominal cash flows discounted at nominal rates.Example of Capital Budgeting under Inflation Sony International has an investment opportunity to produce a new stereo color TV.The required investment on January 1 of this year is$32 million.The firm will dep

26、reciate the investment to zero using the straight-line method.The firm is in the 34%tax bracket.The price of the product on January 1 will be$400 per unit.The price will stay constant in real terms.Labor costs will be$15 per hour on January 1.The will increase at 2%per year in real terms.Energy cost

27、s will be$5 per TV;they will increase 3%per year in real terms.The inflation rate is 5%Revenues are received and costs are paid at year-end.Example of Capital Budgeting under InflationThe riskless nominal discount rate is 4%.The real discount rate for costs and revenues is 8%.Calculate the NPV.Year

28、1Year 2Year 3Year 4Physical Production(units)100,000200,000200,000150,000Labor Input(hours)2,000,0002,000,0002,000,0002,000,000Energy input,physical units200,000200,000200,000200,000Example of Capital Budgeting under InflationThe depreciation tax shield is a risk-free nominal cash flow,and is theref

29、ore discounted at the nominal riskless rate.Cost of investment today=$32,000,000Project life=4 yearsAnnual depreciation expense:years 4000,000,32$000,000,8$315,873,9$)04.1(000,720,2$)04.1(000,720,2$)04.1(000,720,2$)04.1(000,720,2$DTS432DTSPVPVDepreciation tax shield=$8,000,000 .34=$2,720,000Example

30、of Capital Budgeting under Inflation Risky Real Cash Flows Price:$400 per unit with zero real price increase Labor:$15 per hour with 2%real wage increase Energy:$5 per unit with 3%real energy cost increase Year 1 After-tax Real Risky Cash Flows:After-tax revenues=$400 100,000 (1-.34)=$26,400,000Afte

31、r-tax labor costs=$15 2,000,000 1.02 (1-.34)=$20,196,000After-tax energy costs=$5 2,00,000 1.03 (1-.34)=$679,800After-tax net operating CF=$26,400,000-$20,196,000-$679,800=$5,524,200Example of Capital Budgeting under Inflation$5,524,200$31,499,886$31,066,882$17,425,007-$32,000,0000 1 2 34868,590,69$

32、)08.1(007,425,17$)08.1(882,066,31$)08.1(886,499,31$)08.1(200,524,5$32$CFsrisky 432CFsrisky PVmPVYear One After-tax revenues=$400 100,000 (1-.34)=$26,400,000Year One After-tax labor costs=$15 2,000,000 1.02 (1-.34)=$20,196,000Year One After-tax energy costs=$5 2,00,000 1.03 (1-.34)=$679,800Year One A

33、fter-tax net operating CF=$5,524,200Example of Capital Budgeting under Inflation The project NPV can now be computed as the sum of the PV of the cost,the PV of the risky cash flows discounted at the risky rate and the PV of the risk-free cash flows discounted at the risk-free discount rate.NPV=-$32,

34、000,000+$69,590,868+$9,873,315=$47,464,183Investments of Unequal Lives The Equivalent Annual Cost Method Replacement Chain Repeat the projects forever,find the PV of that perpetuity.Assumption:Both projects can and will be repeated.Matching Cycle Repeat projects until they begin and end at the same

35、timelike we just did with the air cleaners.Compute NPV for the“repeated projects”.7.4 Investments of Unequal Lives:The Equivalent Annual Cost Method There are times when application of the NPV rule can lead to the wrong decision.Consider a factory which must have an air cleaner.The equipment is mand

36、ated by law,so there is no“doing without”.There are two choices:The“Cadillac cleaner”costs$4,000 today,has annual operating costs of$100 and lasts for 10 years.The“cheaper cleaner”costs$1,000 today,has annual operating costs of$500 and lasts for 5 years.Which one should we choose?7.4 Investments of

37、Unequal Lives:The Equivalent Annual Cost MethodAt first glance,the cheap cleaner has the lower NPV(r=10%):46.614,4)10.1(100$000,4$101CadillacttNPV39.895,2)10.1(500$000,1$51cheapttNPVThis overlooks the fact that the Cadillac cleaner lasts twice as long.When we incorporate that,the Cadillac cleaner is

38、 actually cheaper.7.4 Investments of Unequal Lives:The Equivalent Annual Cost MethodThe Cadillac cleaner time line of cash flows:-$4,000 100 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100 -1000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-$1,000 500 -500 -500 -500-1,500 -500 -500 -500 -500 -5000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10The“cheaper cl

39、eaner”time line of cash flows over ten years:20.693,4$)10.1(500$)10.1(000,1$)10.1(500$000,1$106551cheapttttNPV46.614,4)10.1(100$000,4$101CadillacttNPVInvestments of Unequal Lives:EAC The Equivalent Annual Cost Method Applicable to a much more robust set of circumstances than replacement chain or mat

40、ching cycle.The Equivalent Annual Cost is the value of the level payment annuity that has the same PV as our original set of cash flows.NPV=EAC ArT For example,the EAC for the Cadillac air cleaner is$750.98101101)10.1(98.750$46.614,4)10.1(100$000,4$tttt The EAC for the cheaper air cleaner is$763.80

41、which confirms our earlier decision to reject it.Example of Replacement Projects Consider a Belgian Dentists office;he needs an autoclave to sterilize his instruments.He has an old one that is in use,but the maintenance costs are rising and so is considering replacing this indispensable piece of equ

42、ipment.New Autoclave Cost=$3,000 today,Maintenance cost=$20 per year Resale value after 6 years=$1,200 NPV of new autoclave(at r=10%):661)10.1(200,1$)10.1(20$000,3$74.409,2$tt61)10.1(29.553$74.409,2$tt EAC of new autoclave=-$553.29Example of Replacement Projects Existing AutoclaveYear012345Maintenan

43、ce 0200275325450500Resale900850775700600500Total Annual CostTotal Cost for year 1=(900 1.10 850)+200=$340340435Total Cost for year 2=(850 1.10 775)+275=$435478 Total Cost for year 3=(775 1.10 700)+325=$478620Total Cost for year 4=(700 1.10 600)+450=$620Total Cost for year 5=(600 1.10 500)+500=$66066

44、0Note that the total cost of keeping an autoclave for the first year includes the$200 maintenance cost as well as the opportunity cost of the foregone future value of the$900 we didnt get from selling it in year 0 less the$850 we have if we still own it at year 1.Example of Replacement Projects 3404

45、35478620660New AutoclaveEAC of new autoclave=-$553.29Existing AutoclaveYear012345Maintenance 0200275325450500Resale900850775700600500Total Annual CostWe should keep the old autoclave until its cheaper to buy a new one.Replace the autoclave after year 3:at that point the new one will cost$553.29 for

46、the next years autoclaving and the old one will cost$620 for one more year.7.5 Summary and Conclusions Capital budgeting must be placed on an incremental basis.Sunk costs are ignored Opportunity costs and side effects matter Inflation must be handled consistently Discount real flows at real rates Discount nominal flows at nominal rates.When a firm must choose between two machines of unequal lives:the firm can apply either the matching cycle approach or the equivalent annual cost approach.