电池市场分析与市场展望课件.ppt

1、Battery Market Development forConsumer Electronics,Automotive,and Industrial:MaterialsRequirements and TrendsChristophe PILLOTDirector,AVICENNE ENERGYPresentation Outline The rechargeable batterymarket in 2013 The Li-ion batteryvalue chain Li-ion batterymaterial market Forecasts&conclusionsMillion H

2、EV powered by LIBNumber of EV sold worldwide(Million)Christophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 The worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,ChinaAVICENNE ENERGY:RENOWNED TOHAVE REALISTIC FORECASTSHEV powered by Lithium ion batteryforecasts from 2008 to 2013EV sold,in mil

3、lion units,worldwide,2010-2020012345201020152020Source:International Battery Conference,Fort Lauderdale 2007,2008,2009,2010&2011AABC June 2007200,20,40,60,811,21,41,61,822008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013IIT 2007IIT 2008IIT 2009IIT 2010AAB(2012)ROLAND BERGER(2011)IIT(MARCH 2010)ROLAND BERGER(2012)AVICENN

4、E 2007-2012DEUTSCHE BANK(2012)IIT(MARCH 2011)AABREALITYAVICENNE 2007Million Units/yearMillion Units/YearTons of cathode/Year$/WhChristophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 The worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,China3THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLYDYNAMIC200015001000500

5、02013Cellular Phones sold per Year(Million)Li-ionNiMH20005004003002001000200 MTablets195 MPortablePCs2013Portable PC sold per Year(Million)Li-ionNiMH20001000008000060000400002000002000Source:AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 20132013Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year032,521,510,520002013Li-ion 18650 cell price(

6、$/Wh)MWhChristophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 The worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,China35 00030 00025 00020 00015 00010 0005 000019902000201020122013Others(Flow battery,NAS,)Li-ionNiMHNiCD4Source:AVICENNE ENERGY,2013THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET1990-2013Lithi

7、um Ion Battery:Highest growth&major part of industryinvestments50 00045 00040 000MWhMWhChristophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 The worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,China150 000100 00050 0000200 000250 000450 000400 000350 000300 0001990 2000 2010 2012 2013Other

8、s(Flow battery,NAS,)Li-ionNiMHNiCDLead Acid150 000100 00050 0000200 000400 000350 000300 000250 0001990 2000 2010 2012 2013THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET1990-2013Lithium Ion Battery:Highest growth&major part of the investmentsLead acid batteries:By far the most important market (90%market share)5Sourc

9、e:AVICENNE ENERGY,2013Billion US$Billion US$1990200020052010201220132015202019902000200520102012201320152020Christophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 The worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,China9080706050403020100Others(Flowbattery,NAS,)Li-ionNiMHNiCDLead AcidTHE W

10、ORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET1990-202054 BILLION US$in 2013 Pack level15%AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR(1990-2013)69080706050403020100OTHERSAUTOMOTIVEINDUSTRIALE-BIKESPOWER TOOLSPORTABLESLISource:AVICENNE ENERGY,2013SLI:Start light and ignition batteries for cars,truck,moto,boat etcPORTABLE:concumer electronics(

11、cellular,portable PCs,tablests,Camera,),data collection&handyterminals,POWER Tools:power tools but also gardeningtoolsINDUSTRIALMOTIVE:Forklift(95%),othersSTATIONARY:Telecom,UPS,EnergyStorage System,Medical,Others(EmergencyLighting,Security,Railroad Signaling,Diesel GeneratorStarting,Control&Switchg

12、ear,AUTOMOTIVE:HEV,P-HEV,EVOTHERS:Medical:wheelchairs,medical carts,medical devices(surgical power tools,mobile instrumentation(x-ray,ultrasound,EKG/ECG,large oxygenconcentrators1-Pack:cell,cell assembly,BMS,connectors Power electronics(DC DC converters,invertors)not included00Christophe PILLOT+33 1

13、 47 78 46 The worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,ChinaSLIAutomotivePortable100004000030000200005000060000SLIAutomotivePortableOther ApplicationsMarineMedical devicesWheelchairMedical CartOther StationarySeismicESSOther Stand-byUPSTelecomOther MotiveForkli

14、ftPower Tools7THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKETIN 2013:US$54 BILLIONBattery market in 2013(M$)2 00012 00010 0008 0006 0004 00014 00016 00018 000E-BikesLead Acid LIB1-Pack level:Pack includingcells,cells assembly,BMS,connectors Power electronics(DC DC converters,invertors)not includedSource:AVICENNE ENERG

15、Y,2013Other ApplicationsMarineMedical devicesWheelchairMedical CartOther StationarySeismicESSOther Stand-byUPSTelecomOther MotiveForkliftPower ToolsE-BikesM WhM Wh2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013Christophe PILLOT+33 1 47

16、 78 46 The worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,ChinaLI-ION IN 2013MAIN APPLICATIONS:CELLULAR,NOTEBOOK8Note:(1)2013:Avicenne Forecasts(2)Cell levelCellular PhonesPortable PCsOthersTabletsDigital CameraPower ToolsVideo GamesCamcordersMP3Household devicesToys

17、E-bikesAutoOthers5 000 M cells 39 000 MWh12 000 M$(2)Li-ion Battery sales,MWh,Worldwide,2000-2013(1)40 00035 00030 00025 00020 00015 00010 0005 000-CAGR 2003/2013+26%per year in Volume+14%per year in valueLi-ion Battery sales,MWh,Worldwide,2000-2013(1)22 00020 00018 00016 00014 00012 00010 0008 0006

18、 0004 0002 000-M$M$2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013Christophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 The worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,ChinaLI-ION IN 2013MAIN APPLICATIONS:CELLULAR,NOTEBOO

19、K9Note:(1)2013:Avicenne Forecasts(2)Cell level5 000 M cells 39 000 MWh12 000 M$(2)Li-ion Battery sales,M$,Worldwide,2000-2013(1)14 00012 00010 0008 0006 0004 0002 000-Cellular PhonesPortable PCsOthersCAGR 2003/2013+26%per year in Volume+14%per year in valueLi-ion Battery sales,M$,Worldwide,2000-2013

20、(1)70006000500040003000200010000AutomotivesTabletsPower toolsCamcordersGamesDigital cameraE-BikesMP3OthersM cells/month1Q 092Q 093Q094Q 091Q 102Q 103Q104Q 101Q 112Q 113Q114Q 11M cells/YearOver supply RatioChristophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 The worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 20

21、14June 18-20Shenzhen,China10BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASINGDRASTICALLYIn 10 Years 80%price decreasingdespite a fluctuating Co price50%40%30%20%10%0%3 0002 5002 0001 5001 000500-Standard DemandProduction CapacityTESLAOversupply ratio0,00Average LIB cell price($/Wh)1,000,800,600,400,202005 2006 2007 2008

22、2009 2010 2011 2012 2013CylindricalPrismaticLaminate300250200150100500BAKATLLishenE-OneLGSDIMAXELLSONYPANASONICSANYOSource:UMICORE,march 2011Production capacity 2009/2011:from 150 to 250 M cells/monthNote-Q4 2013:Cylindrical:0,17$/Wh;Laminates:0,3$/Wh18650 oversupply ratio isdecreasing thanks to TES

23、LAThe worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,ChinaChristophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 0011LI-ION VALUE CHAINCATHODE90 OOO T in 2013Revenues:2,1 B$CAGR 03/13:+16%ANODE47 000 TRevenues:0,75 B$CAGR 03/13:+14%ELECTROLYTECELLMANUFACTURERSRevenues:12 B$Gross margin:10%

24、PACKMANUFACTURERSRevenues:17 B$Gross margin:300 000 TonsLFP22%Tons20122006200720082009201020112013Christophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 The worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,China14ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS47 000 TONS IN 2013LIB Anode MaterialsSource:Sanyo,March

25、20110,01,00,80,60,40,2Source:A.Jossen,IRES 2007LIB Anode Materials1,205001000150020002500400003000020000100000Source:Hitachi ChemicalLIB Anode market,(Tons)50000LTOSi or Sn TypeAmorphous CarbonMeso-PhaseArtificial GraphiteNatural GraphiteHardCarbonSoftCarbonGraphiteCapacity(/g)400mAh/g250mAh/g325-37

26、5mAh/gCapacity(/cc)+0+Power+0Stability+0CyclabilitySource:Hitachi+Chemical+0PrecursorsPetroleumPitch,Resin,cellulose,wood,coconutsPetroleumcokeNaturalorpetroleumcokeCOST2012-202030-25$/kg25-20$/kg15-10$/kgSUPPLIERSKUREHAHITACHIHITACHIBTR&manyothersChristophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 The worldwide Batter

27、ymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,China0%50%100%SONYSANYOATLMaxellLishenBYDLGCSDIPANASONICARTIFICIALMCMBNATURALAmorphousMETAL15ANODE FOR LIB IN 2013Natural graphite become a commodityOthersA123BAKMCMB4%Amorphous4%Si or Sn Type1%LTO1%Carbon for LIB anodesby type(2013)Art

28、ificialGraphite26%NaturalGraphite64%Note:MCMB:Mesocarbon Microbeads()NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:LEADERS:M$200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220134%Christophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 The worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,ChinaLIB SEPARATOR MA

29、RKET 2013LIB separator market,M$,CAGR 2003/2013:+17%LIB Separator supplier,marketshare in 201316Others:TDK/Nitto Denko,Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech,ShenzhenSeniorTechnology Material,Xinxiang Green next Energy,Dupont,200060040010008001200EVONIK,TEIJIN,HIFUTURE,UBE-MAXELL,TREOFAN,POROUS POWER,DREAMWEAVER,GRE

30、EN,SENIOR,JINHUI,()NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:LEADERS:ASAHI23%TONEN20%SUMITOMO5%SK12%ENTEK4%3%CELGARD13%FoshanJinhuiUBE6%Green Senior4%Others6%Tons20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013Christophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 The worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014J

31、une 18-20Shenzhen,ChinaELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS35 000 TONS IN 20131701000050002000015000350003000025000LIB electrolyte market,Tons,CAGR 2003/2013:+24%40000CellularPower toolsPortable PCE-bikesTabletsHEVPHEVEVOthersNote:(1)GTHR:Zhangjiagang Guotai-HuarongNEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:LEADERS:Zhang

32、jiagangGuotai-HuangJINNIUUBE6%MitsubishiChem15%In-house10%Tomiyama3%PANAX-ETEC14%GTHR16%Mitsui3%Jinniu9%Cap Chem8%ShanShan8%LIB electrolyte supplier,marketshare in 2013Soulbrain8%GTHRMitsubishiPANAXETEC(2)TomiyamaMitsuiTonsChristophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 The worldwide Batterymarket and materialstren

33、ds2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,ChinaLIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2013In-HouseJinniuCapchemShanshanSoulbrainUbe1 000Electrolyte maker sales2005-20136 0005 0004 0003 0002 000-200520062007200820092010201120122013(2)Panax-Etec bought Samsung Chiel activities in 2010180500010000SonyElectrolyte Battery

34、makers&suppliers relation in 2013OthersTOSHIBAYuasa(BEC)YUASA(LEJ)NECA123BAKATLMaxellLishenBYDLG ChemSDIPanasonicTonsTomiyamaMitsuiShanShanMitsubishi ChemIn-housePANAX-ETEC GTHRJinniu Cap ChemSoulbrain(1)Full electrolyte formulationin-houseChristophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 The worldwide Batterymarket

35、and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,ChinaTIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALSIN LIB INDUSTRYThe worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,ChinaChristophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 0020CELLULAR PHONESFORECASTS 2010-20254 0003 0002 0001 000-OTHERSINDIAA

36、SIACHINAJAPANEUROPEUSACellular phones demand(M Units)CAGR 2010-2025:+6%Cellular Phones market DriversEmergent marketRenewal ratio increaseSmartphone penetration increaseLIB cells for cellular phonestrendsLaminates ratio increaseIncrease of ThicknessIncrease of 1400 mAh capacityLIB cells demand 2010-

37、2025Polymer penetration:30%-75%100%PolymerPrismatic80%60%40%20%0%Source:AVICENNE ENERGY AnalysesCyl.Pris.1%Lam.16%83%LIB cell format(Volume)2013The worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,ChinaChristophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 PORTABLE PCSFORECASTS 2010-20252001

38、000EmergingMaturePortable PCs demand(M Units)2010-2025 CAGR:+4%400300Portable PCs market trendsMature market stable or decreasingGrowth driven by Emerging marketUltrabook is increasing (20(1)to 60%in2013(2)ASP decreasing (2800 mAh for Premium/corporate2.2 Ah for consumer,emerging market2180%60%40%20

39、%0%Source:AVICENNE ENERGY AnalysesSource:IDC,Gartner,AVICENNE EnergyLIB cells demand 2010-2025Polymer penetration:7%-28%100%LaminatePrismaticCylindricalCyl.Pris.1%Lam.16%83%LIB cell format(Volume)2013M cells/yearMWh2000200520102013201520202025Christophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 The worldwide Batterymark

40、et and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,China2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLEELECTRONIC DEVICES100001000009000080000700006000050000400003000020000OthersHouseholdToysMP3Video GamesDigital CameraCamcordersCordless PhonesTabletsPortable PCsCellular Phones2000-2025 LIB market,MWh,byapp

41、lication(3C)2000-2025 LIB market,M cells,by form factor(3C)080007000600050004000300020001000200020052010201520202025Li-PLi-ion PrLi-ion CylTakeshita-March 2013(1)(1)Source:Takeshita,Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4220Source:AVICENNE ENERGY AnalysesMillion200020022004200620082010201220142

42、01620182020HEV penetration(%of total car sales)Christophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 The worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,China35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%USAEUROPEJAPANOTHERSWORLDHEV FORECASTS2000-2025HEV MARKET:2,5 Million units in 2015 5 M in 2020 7M in 20252387

43、6543210200020052010201520202025USAEUROPEJAPANOTHERSMicro hybrid not includedBackgroundMobileAutomotiveAThe worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,ChinaChristophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 0024SAFETY ISSUESLi-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious

44、safety concernsIn the 80s,lithium metal batteries were put into the markets(Moli Energy).Their furtherdevelopment has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues:Highchemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions,even explosions.In thec

45、harging-discharging process,lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes.Thegrowing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.CONSEQUENCES:Except BOLLORE,all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelledtheir projectsLi-ion batterie

46、s for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquidelectrolyte.In case of overcharging or short-circuit(contact between anode&cathode)a chain reactionstarts-heating&gasing-fire(“Thermal runaway”)CONSEQUENCES:In 2006,SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs o

47、f400 million USD,more than there profit-to-dateWith new cathode chemistry,most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safetyconcerns:(1)BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode(2)GM Volt in the USwith a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes(as a result of acrashed tested

48、Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing!)(3)PRIUSP-HEVin the US(converted from HEVPrius by a local engineering companywithout any authorisation by Toyota)Boing 787:The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was causedby an overheating Lithium ion battery pack.The

49、 battery fire could have been hot enough tomelt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the planes shell.CONSEQUENCES:All the 787 worldwide are grounded.Considerable losses for Boing.Christophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 The worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20

50、Shenzhen,China25SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTIONCRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIESSome technologies are already out of the game due tostability issuesThe worldwide Batterymarket and materialstrends2013-2025CIBF 2014June 18-20Shenzhen,ChinaChristophe PILLOT+33 1 47 78 46 LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVEVALUE CHAI