SURVEY-RESEARCH-UMBC调查的研究的项目课件.ppt

1、SURVEY RESEARCHTopic#1Covered in considerable detail in Weisberg et al.textbookSurvey Research Quantitative study of large human populations using these basic research operations:define the population to be studied;select a representative sample;measure(by means of interview questions)characteristic

2、s of the respondents in the sample;tabulate,crosstabulate,and otherwise analyze the sample data(using SPSS,etc.)to produce various sample statistics;and make inferences from sample statistics to population parameters of interest.Types of Surveys Fake/spurious/recreational polls and surveys:straw/cal

3、l-in/write-in or web based polls propaganda polls(asking“biased”questions)sponsored by advocacy or interest groups political persuasion disguised as polling(“push polls”)commercial selling disguised as pollingTypes of Surveys(cont.)Legitimate commercial surveys Public(results released to the public)

4、syndicated polls(starting in late 1930s)Gallup,Roper,Harris,etc.media polls(starting in the 1960s)pre-election tracking polls exit polls Proprietary(contract research;results not publicly released)market research(starting in 1920s)political consulting/polling for candidates,parties,and advocacy and

5、interest groups(starting in the 1950s)Types of Surveys(cont.)Non-commercial surveys Government(“statistical”)survey research U.S.Census Current Population Survey(CPS)Rotating panel survey of 60,000 households Source of labor force size and unemployment data Voter registration and turnout(but not vot

6、e choices and opinions)Annual Survey of Social Security and Medicare Beneficiaries National Crime Victimization SurveyTypes of Surveys(cont.)Non-commercial surveys(cont.)Academic/scholarly/scientific surveys Voting studies(surveys vs.election data)“Columbia”(sociological)studies(1940s)local samples

7、extended panel surveys emphasizing groups affiliations Index of Political Disposition(IPP)Types of Surveys(cont.)Voting studies(cont.)“Michigan”(political/social psychological)studies National samples Limited(pre-and post-election)panels Occasional extended panels(four years)Emphasize opinions,attit

8、udes,and orientation over group affiliations Party Identification(Student Survey Q1&Q2)American National Election Studies(ANES)Social Science Data Archives Interuniversity Consortium for Social and Political Research(ICPSR)at University of Michigan European Consortium for Political Research at Unive

9、rsity of Essex(UK)IBM Punch CardOther Major(Ongoing)Surveys General Social Survey(GSS),NORC(University of Chicago)Panel Study of Income Dynamics(PSID),University of Michigan SRC Citizen Participation surveys(Sidney Verba and others)Long-Term Political Socialization Panel Study Parent-child pairs int

10、erviewed in 1965,1973,1982,and 2019 British,Canadian,German,etc.,Election StudiesWhat Do(Political)Surveys(Purport to)Measure?voting intentions(and likelihood of voting)attitudes/opinions/preferences specific issues general orientations party ID,ideological placement,political trust/cynicism beliefs

11、/perceptions/predictions/salience information/knowledge reported behavior did you vote?for whom?contribute$?attend meeting?job-seeking activity TV watching crime victimization demographicsPreview of Data Collection Methods Self-administered“paper and pencil”or web-based questionnaires Student Survey

12、 SCEQ Exit polls Telephone interviews Tracking polls Personal interviews ANES CPS,GSS,PSID,etc.Closed-Form vs.Open-Ended Questions Multiple-choice test vs.“blue book”test SCEQ“scan sheets”vs.“blue sheets”Closed-Form Questions(cont.)Multiple-choice format:may be self-administered,telephone,or persona

13、l(ANES)Some people dont pay much attention to political campaigns.How about you?Would you say that you have been VERY MUCH interested,SOMEWHAT interested or NOT MUCH interested in the political campaigns so far this year?1.Very much interested3.Somewhat interested5.Not much interested8.Dont know9.Re

14、fused0.NAClosed-Form Questions(cont.)Agree/Disagree Format(ANES)“This country would have many fewer problems if there were more emphasis on traditional family ties.”Do you AGREE STRONGLY,AGREE SOMEWHAT,NEITHER AGREE NOR DISAGREE,DISAGREE SOMEWHAT,or DISAGREE STRONGLY with this statement?1.Agree stro

15、ngly2.Agree somewhat3.Neither agree nor disagree4.Disagree somewhat5.Disagree strongly8.Dont know9.Refused0.NAClosed-form Questions(cont.)Rating Scale Format(ANES)Some people think the government should provide fewer services even in areas such as health and education in order to reduce spending.Sup

16、pose these people are at one end of a scale,at point 1.Other people feel it is important for the government to provide many more services even if it means an increase in spending.Suppose these people are at the other end,at point 7.And,of course,some other people have opinions somewhere in between,a

17、t points 2,3,4,5 or 6.Where would you place YOURSELF on this scale,or havent you thought much about this?01.Govt should provide many fewer services02.03.04.05.06.07.Govt should provide many more services80.Havent thought much about this88.Dont know89.Refused00.NAClosed-form Questions(cont.)Rating Sc

18、ale Format(cont.)Where would you place GEORGE W.BUSH on this issue?DO NOT PROBE DK1.Government should provide many fewer services2.3.4.5.6.7.Government should provide many more services8.Dont know9.Refused0.NANote:Randomize order of administration for Pres candidatesThermometer ScalePlease look at p

19、age 2 of the booklet.See Weisberg et al.,p.80Id like to get your feelings toward some of our political leaders and other people who are in the news these days.Ill read the name of a person and Id like you to rate that person using something we call the feeling thermometer.Ratings between 50 degrees

20、and 100 degrees mean that you feel favorable and warm toward the person.Ratings between 0 degrees and 50 degrees mean that you dont feel favorable toward the person and that you dont care too much for that person.You would rate the person at the 50 degree mark if you dont feel particularly warm or c

21、old toward the person.If we come to a person whose name you dont recognize,you dont need to rate that person.Just tell me and well move on to the next one.Closed-form Questions(cont.)Indices(composite measures)Trust in government(ANES)Index of respondents trust in government,built from responses to

22、the following questions:(1)How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right?(2)Do you think that people in government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes,waste some of it,or dont waste very much of it?(3)Would you say the government is pretty much

23、 run by a few big interests looking out for themselves or that it is run for the benefit of all the people?(4)Do you think that quite a few of the people running the government are crooked or that not very many of them are?Those who rank low on this index were more likely to select the distrusting p

24、osition for each of these items.1 Low 2 3 4 5 High 9 NAExperimenting with Closed-Form Questions(2019 ANES)IF R SELECTED FOR STANDARD VERSION:In talking to people about elections,we often find that a lot of people were not able to vote because they werent registered,they were sick,or they just didnt

25、have time.How about you-did you vote in the elections this November?1.Yes,voted5.No,didnt vote8.Dont know9.Refused0.NAIF R SELECTED FOR EXPERIMENTAL VERSION:In talking to people about elections,we often find that a lot of people were not able to vote because they werent registered,they were sick,or

26、they just didnt have time.Which of the following statements best describes you:1.I did not vote(in the election this November).2.I thought about voting this time,but didnt.3.I usually vote,but didnt this time.4.I am sure I voted8.Dont know9.Refused0.NAClosed-Form Questions(cont.)Closed-form question

27、s produce pre-coded data.This is a major advantage,in same way that multiple-choice tests vs.essay exams can be quickly and reliably scored.Researchers can move quickly to tabulation and analysis.Student Survey(and SCEQ)answer sheets can be sent directly for scanning,producing an electronic data fil

28、e.See next slide ANES(and other personal)interview sheets must be transcribed and then entered into electronic format(e.g.,Excel spreadsheet or SPSS Data Editor screen)to create an electronic file.For example,2009 Student Survey DataOpen-Ended Questions ANES:Party Likes/Dislikes Id like to ask you w

29、hat you think are the good and bad points about the two NATIONAL PARTIES.Note:Randomize order of administration for partiesIs there anything in particular that you LIKE about the Democratic party?IF R SAYS THERE IS SOMETHING R LIKES ABOUT DEMOCRATIC PARTY:(What is that?)PROBE:ANYTHING ELSE YOU LIKE

30、ABOUT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY?UNTIL R SAYS NO.Is there anything in particular that you DONT LIKE about the Democratic party?Etc.Data:Number of responsesBalance of positive vs.negative responsesContent of responsesData must be coded for quantitative analysisIs there anything in particular that you LIKE/

31、DISLIKE about the Democratic/Republican party?0101 Traditional Democratic voter:always been a Democrat;just a Democrat;never been a Republican;just couldnt vote Republican0102 Traditional Republican voter:always been a Republican;just a Republican;never been a Democrat;just couldnt vote Democratic01

32、11 Positive,personal,affective terms applied to party-good/nice people;patriotic;etc.0112 Negative,personal,affective terms applied to party-bad/lazy people;lack of patriotism;etc.0121 Can trust them;they keep their promises;you know where they stand 0122 Cant trust them;they break their promises;yo

33、u dont know where they stand0131 Party is well-organized,sticks together,is united;members are disciplined;votes party line0132 Party is poorly-organized/really two parties/divided/factionalized;members not disciplined;doesnt vote party line0133 Party is(more)representative/good cross-section of the

34、 country;encompasses a wider variety of views/people;is more at the center of the countrys views ETCFrom SETUPS Codebook:Handout#1B in Course Pack or from Course WebsiteV30MOST IMPORTANT NATIONAL PROBLEM “What do you think is the single most important problem facing this country?”(Responses have bee

35、n categorized into the five groups listed below.)1 Economy2 Foreign affairs3 Social welfare4 Crime,public order5 Other9 NAIn the actual ANES survey,this is an open-ended question with hundreds of code categories.Data from such open-ended questions usually is not available until long after data from

36、closed form questions is available.Problem with comparable closed-form questions 2019 EXIT POLLSimilar closed-form questions can have serious problems.Was 2019 election“all about values,”as the media claimed?Exit PollQuestion ETaxes 5%Education 4%Iraq 15%Terrorism 19%Economy/Jobs 20%Moral values 22%

37、Health care 8%Omit 7%2000 EXIT POLLQuestion DWorld Affairs 12%Med/Rx 7%Health Care 8%Econ/Jobs18%Taxes14%Education14%Soc Security14%Omit13%Question DesignSee Weisberg et al.,Chapter 4Question wording can be blatantly biased“pushing”respondent to a preferred responses,as in propaganda polls Do you fa

38、vor murdering innocent babies in the womb?Should government officials have the power to interfere with womens personal decisions?Question Design Even without manifest bias,phrasing can hugely affect the distribution of responses,especially when many respondents are ambivalent about the issue.Do you

39、believe that the U.S.should withdraw from South Vietnam?Do you believe that the U.S.should withdraw from South Vietnam and allow the Vietnamese to settle things among themselves?Do you believe that the U.S.should withdraw from South Vietnam,even if this means that the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese

40、or“the Communists”take over?If the full House votes to impeach Bill Clinton,then do you think it would be better for the county if Bill Clinton resigned from office,or not?Better to resign:60%If the full House votes to send impeachment articles to the Senate for a trial,then do you think it would be

41、 better for the county if Bill Clinton resigned from office,or not?Better to resign:43%Question Design(cont.)Unbalanced vs.balanced formatShould ILLEGAL immigrants be prosecuted and deported for being in the U.S.illegally,or shouldnt they?Should be deported69%Should not be deported24%Unsure 7%If you

42、 had to choose,what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years?They should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status.OR,They should be deported back to their native country.Chance to kee

43、p jobs etc.62%Deported 33%Unsure 5%CBS News/New York Times Poll.May 18-23,2019Question Design(cont.)Unbalanced vs.balanced format ANES through 1960:“If cities and towns around the country need help to build more schools,the government in Washington ought to give them the money they need.Do you have

44、an opinion on this or not?”ANES from 1964 onwards:“Some people think that the government in Washington should help towns and cities provide education for grade and high school children;others think that this should be handled by states and local communities.Have you been interested enough in this to

45、 favor one side over the other?”Also recall“government services”question.Question Design(cont.)Ambiguity(see Weisberg,p.85)“How many public officials do you think are a little bit dishonest-most,some,a few,or none?”ANES,earlier version Many respondents answered“few or none,”but evidently because the

46、y though some or most public officials were a whole lot dishonest.“Do you think that that quite a few people running the government are crooked,not very many are,or do you think hardly any of them are?”ANES,current versionQuestion Design(cont.)Might the Holocaust Have Never Happened?Asked in a“wrong

47、”confusing way(November 1992)Question:Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?Possible it never happened22%Impossible it never happened65%DK12%Asked in a“right”less confusing way way(March 1994)Question:Does it seem possible to y

48、ou that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened,or do you feel certain that it happened?Possible it never happened 1%Certain it happened 91%DK 8%Source:Surveys by the Roper Organization,reported in Public Perspective Question Design(cont.)Closed-form option order(cf.ballot order)Which cand

49、idate did you prefer for the 2019 Democratic presidential nomination?(1)Howard Dean(2)John Edwards(3)Richard Gephardt(4)John Kerry(5)Other candidate;dont know;no preference Which candidate did you prefer for the 2019 Democratic presidential nomination?(1)John Kerry(2)Richard Gephardt(3)John Edwards(

50、4)Howard Dean(5)Other candidate;dont know;no preferenceQuestion Design(cont.)Response biasPolitical Efficacy Index Index of respondents sense of“political efficacy,”built from responses to the following questions:(1)Do you agree or disagree with the statement,People like me dont have any say about w