普氏Platts能源资讯亚洲区编辑总监VandanaHari课件.pptx
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- 普氏 Platts 能源 资讯 亚洲 编辑 总监 VandanaHari 课件
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1、Global Oil Markets OutlookVandana Hari,Asia Editorial Director 28 May 2019,Shanghai2Enabling the markets to perform with greater Transparency&EfficiencySincePlatts An introductionNew YorkDenverWashingtonHoustonBuenos AiresLondonMoscowDubaiBeijingTokyoShanghaiHong KongSingaporeEvergreenBostonHightsto
2、wnPittsburghSo PauloLausannePlatts An introductionCape TownHoustonARA(Amsterdam Rotterdam Antwerp)SingaporePlatts An Introduction Key global crude and oil products benchmarks,including Brent and Dubai Intelligence on oil,petrochemicals,metals,gas&power,agricultural marketsEditorial and market assess
3、ments are conductedwith complete Independence&ImpartialityAgenda5Oil prices End to volatility?-What fundamentals and geopolitics tell us US shale boom-The impact on global oil flowsso far and going forward Redefining refining-Sector in a major flux globally Global Oil Markets:Stable On The Surface6S
4、ource:Platts Dated Brent assessmentsDemand Stabilization Anchoring Crude7Source:Platts analysis of quarterly historic and forecast demand from OPECs Monthly Oil Market Report(January 2019)and IEAs Oil Market Report(January 2019)Global Crude Markets Finely Balanced8Source:Platts Dated Brent assessmen
5、tsAnnual Demand Growth=1 million b/dNew Crude Supplies From US,Iraq,Africa US Crude Export PolicyMarginal Cost Of Tight OilOPEC Coordination?Easing Iran SanctionsOil Markets Find Stable Evolutionary CurveThe mood at Platts 7th Global Crude Oil Summit May 13-149China In An Oil Recession10 Economy los
6、ing steam;inventories piling up;major stimulus measures seen unlikely Growth becoming less oil-intensive Oil demand between Oct 2019-Mar 2019 declined 1%Gasoil,naphtha consumption shrinking,more than offsets rise in gasoline demandDownside Risks To Global Demand Growth11Source:IEADemand:IEA projects
7、 1.3 mil b/d growth for 2019 Too optimistic?CHINA:Oil demand growth slowing down faster than GDP INDIA:Annual growth in consumption cools to 1%RUSSIA:Ukraine tensions and sanctions dampen economic outlookOutages Dont Rattle Markets Any More Libyan output slumped to around 200,000 b/d(versus 1.6 mil
8、b/d capacity)Unrest,attacks on infrastructure curb crude production in Nigeria,Iraq,Libya,Sudan12NigeriaNearly 4 mil b/d of production reduced or under constant threatBut OPEC output remains mostly below 30 mil b/d“ceiling”since last Sep;Saudi pulls back from 10 mil b/d peakPlenty Of New Supply,Led
9、by N.AmericaON THE OPEC FRONT:Iran could raise output by 1 mil b/d within 6 months if sanctions lifted;aims for 5 mil b/d output by 2018 Iraq production is on a strong ascent 3.4 mil b/d in Feb,highest since 1979 Will OPEC be able to respond if there is a supply glut?13Non-OPEC supply growing at its
10、 strongest in decadesSource:IEAUS Shale Bonanza The Impact On Global Oil Flows So Far And Going ForwardUS Tight Oil Boom Light,Sweet Surplus 15 9.6 mil b/d 2020:Nearly half the output will be tight oil Most tight oil is light/ultra light sweet crude/condensate Nearly 2 mil b/d of excess light sweet
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