城市韧弹性-将灾害风险管理融入可持续发展.pptx

1、城市韧弹性_将灾害风险管理融入可持续发展Outline Why City Resilience?What Is City Resilience?How to Make our Cities More Resilient?How to Measure City Resilience?Why City Resilience?2.韧性城市 2008年，人类历史上首次出现世界人口的一半居住在城市城市化，预计到2050年，全球城市人口将再增加25亿，城市人口比例将达到66%,，总数为62亿，届时城市人口可能是农村人口的两倍（United Nations,2015）。中国城市化水平由1978年的18%快速

2、提高到2016年的57.35%。1978-1998年，20年间我国人口城镇化率增长了约12%。而1998-2016年，仅18年间就增长了约26%。新世纪以来，我国城市常住人口净增3.34亿，超过美国全国人口。2000年百万人口城市仅40座，而至2015年超过了140座。上海的城市化 1840年，城区面积：3 km2，1949年：86 km2 2009年：2968 km2;2010年，上海市常住人口2300万;人口密度：3624人/km2.Urban Sprawl Pattern:Centralized urban development“Gridlock”during a disasterIs

3、 the city resilient?Urban Expansion in Beijing,China(Source:Peng,H.,2005)Cities have always faced risks:natural hazards,climate change,resource shortages,and conflict etc.Large disaster events from 2001 to 2017 with major impacts on citiesPopular nameMain countries affectedDate of eventType of hazar

4、dMain cities affectedTotal number of deathsTotal number of affectedTotal damages US$Hurricane HarveyUnited States25 August 2017Tropical cycloneHouston306,800,000125 billionNepal earthquakeNepal25 April 2015EarthquakeNew tubalchak,Kathmandu,nouakot8,492800,0005 billionTyphoon HaiyanPhilippines7 Novem

5、ber 2013Tropical cycloneRigauh,samar,leyte,Guam,visayas6,19016,078,1817.5 billionBeijingrainstormChina21 July 2012FloodBeijing791,270,0002.5 billionHurricane SandyUnited States28 October 2012Tropical cycloneNew York438,400,00019 billionEast Japan earthquakeJapan11 March 2011EarthquakeMiyagi,fukushim

6、a,iwate28,5253,400,00015.4 billionHaiti earthquakeHaiti12 January 2010EarthquakePort-au-Prince220,5703,400,000n/aSichuan earthquakeChina12 May 2008EarthquakeBeichuan,Dujiangyan,Shfang,Mianzhu,Juyuan,Jiangyou,Mianyang,Chengdu87,47645,976,59685 billionCyclone NargisMyanmar2 May 2008Tropical cycloneYan

7、gon138,3662,420,000 4 billionJava earthquakeIndonesia27 May 2008EarthquakeYogyakarta5,778 3,177,9233.1 billionKashmir earthquakePakistan8 October 2005EarthquakeMuzaffarabad73,3385,128,0005.2 billionHurricane KatrinaUnited States29 August 2005Tropical cycloneNew Orleans1,833500,000125 billionMumbai f

8、loodsIndia26 July 2005FloodMumbai1,20020,000,0553.3 billionSouth Asian tsunamiIndonesia,Sri Lanka,India,Thailand,Malaysia,Maldives,Myanmar26 December 2004Earthquake and tsunamiBanda Aceh,Chennai(some damages)226,4082,321,7009.2 billionBam earthquakeIran26 December 2003EarthquakeBam26,796267,628500 m

9、illionEuropean heatwaveItaly,France,Spain,Germany,Portugal,SwitzerlandSummer 2003Extreme heatVarious72,210Not reportedNot reportedDresden floodsGermany11 August 2002FloodDresden27331,10811.6 billionGujurat earthquakeIndia26 January 2001EarthquakeBhuj,Ahmedabad20,0056,321,8122.6 billionThe Impacts of

10、 Hurricane Sandy on New YorkThe Impacts of Hurricane Sandy on New Yorkl 43人死于纽约飓风l 近9万栋建筑受淹l 6 500位病人从医院和护理中心疏散l 110万纽约市儿童一个星期无法上学l 200万人遭受停电影响l 每天1100万旅客出行受影响l 直接经济损失估计达190亿美元Inundated area of New York during the Sandy disaster,2012/10/29 The 2011 Great East Japan The 2011 Great East Japan Earthqua

11、keEarthquakeSource:The World Bank，2012Total Economic Loss:US$235 billion,the costliest natural disaster in history(World Bank,2011).Event chain Earthquake Tsnunami-Nuclear Accident 地震共造成了13392人死亡，15133人失踪。2011/07 Bangkok Flood Disaster&its ImpactsFlood Map,Bangkok,ThailandSeagate Hard-disc Price in

12、Beijing:Economic loss 150 million US$2015/04/25 Nepal EarthquakeMagnitude:7.8 Mw or 8.1 MsDeath:8,790Injured:22,300Affected:8 million(30%of the POP)Affected Districts:31 out of 75Collapsed Houses:498,852Damaged Houses:256,697 Total Losses:$3.5 Billion(5.2%GDP;58.3%Revenue;50%Expense)Sources:USAID,NP

13、C Nepal,Friends Service Council Nepal,FEDO Nepal Urban Disasters in China are increasing.More natural disasters,in particular hydro-meteorological“See the Sea”at cities has been getting“Popular”.More environmental and technological disasters in cities More social incidents Most casualties and losses

14、 were preventive.Direct Economic Loss of Urban Meteorological Disasters and Its Ratio to GDP in China from 1985 to 2014 资料来源：中国气象灾害年鉴，中国气候公报，国家统计局城市化气象灾害直接损失平均值：816.34亿元 损失相当于GDP比重平均值：0.64%00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.80500100015002000250030001985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992

15、00020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014（年份）城市气象灾害直接损失损失相当于GDP比重（%）（亿元）2013/09/13 Shanghai Flood2012/04/15 Changsha Flood2011/06/23 Beijing Flood“See the Sea at cities in China has become Popular.”2012/06/18 Hangzhou Flood2010/06/10 NanChang Flood2011/06/18 Wuhan FloodRainstorm-in

16、duced Flood,Beijing,2012/07/21 Affected Area:16,000 km2 Affected Pop:1.9 million Evacuated Pop:56,933 Death:79 Damaged Houses:10,660 Economic Loss:11.64 billionEnvironmental and technological disasters are increasing.Mega-explosion in Tianjin,2015/08/122015 Shenzhen Man-made Landslide Disaster:2015-

17、12-2033 buildings destroyed69 death,16 injured,8 missing,900+displaced(as of 01/12/2016)2000+professionals engaged in emergency response.我国分布有23条地震带，7度以上高烈度区域占国土面积的58%。54%的县城、60%的地级市，27个省会城市位于7度及以上地震高危险区。Underlying Causes:Risk-blind urban design and planning due to outpaced expansion and development

18、.Lack of minimum consideration of urban Safety,Security,and Resilience in urban planning and developmentWhy Do Urban Disasters Increase?Immediate Causes:Natural hazards;insufficient preparedness,in-effective response,little timely information,etc.Root Causes:Culture,social and economic conditions,go

19、vernance,etc.Five Ways that Increase Urban Risks1.Urban Development results in the concentration of assets and economic activities and thus increases urban exposure to risks.2.Sprawling and rapid urban development increases urban informality,social and economic vulnerability3.Cities become integrate

20、d and inter-dependent and thus more vulnerable,as a complex social-technical-ecological system.4.Urban Development makes cities expand to hazard-prone areas5.Changing climate intensifies various hazards such as extreme weather events,heat waves,etc.Goal 11:“Make cities and human settlements inclusiv

21、e,safe,resilient resilient and sustainable ResilienceResilience has become an important goal for cities,particularly in the face of climate change.What Is City Resilience?Resilience is the ability to prepare and plan for,absorb,recover from,and more successfully adapt to adverse events(Cutter et al.

22、,2012).Urban resilience refers to the ability of an urban system to maintain or rapidly return to desired functions in the face of a disturbance,to adapt to change,and to quickly transform systems that limit current or future adaptive capacity(Meerow et al.,2016).美国洛克菲勒基金会（Rockefeller Foundation）提出城

23、市韧性是一个城市的个人、社区和系统在经历各种慢性压力和急性冲击下存续、适应和成长的能力（Rockefeller Foundation,2013）。p 韧性概念演化 由原来的抵抗灾害造成的干扰转变到接受干扰，并从中适应、调整、恢复的能力；由原来单纯对系统平衡态的关注逐渐转变到对系统功能的关注，如自组织能力、学习和适应能力等；由原来在灾害发生后的被动接受转变为主动落实应对，维持并提高社会-生态系统适应不确定性的能力。这两个角度之间有着深远的转变。韧性系统包含 7个主要特性，即灵活（Flexible）、冗余（Redundant）、稳健（Robust）、智谋（Resourceful）、反思（Refle

24、ctive）、包容（Inclusive）和综合（Integrated）（The Rockefeller Foundation|Arup，2014）。认为韧性系统应具备6个主要特性：多样性（Diversity），冗余性（Redundancy），鲁棒性（Robustness），恢复力（Recovery），适应性（Adaptation），学习和转化的能力（Ability to learn and translate）（赵丹，2017）Sixteen Resilience Characteristics from the Literature A resilient city is a city wh

25、ere there is or are1.Minimal human vulnerability；2.Diverse livelihoods and employment；3.Adequate safeguards to human life and health；4.Collective identity and mutual support；5.Social stability and security；6.Availability of financial resources and contingency funds；7.Reduced physical exposure and vu

26、lnerability；8.Continuity of critical services；9.Reliable communications and mobility；10.Effective leadership and management；11.Empowered stakeholders；12.Integrated development planning How to make our cities more resilient?Understanding,managing,and reducing disaster risks provide a foundation for b

27、uilding resilience to disasters.The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 The Four Priorities for Action 理解灾害风险（Understanding disaster risk）;加强灾害风险治理，管理灾害风险（Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk;）；投资减轻灾害风险，增强韧弹性（Investing in disaster risk reduction for resil

28、ience）；加强备灾以提升有效响应能力，在恢复、安置、重建方面做到让“灾区明天更美好”（Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response,and to“Build Back Better”in recovery,rehabilitation and reconstruction.）。使城市具有韧弹性的10大要点 具有灾害韧弹性的组织能力 当前和未来风险的识别、理解和使用能力 增强金融的韧弹性能力 追求有韧弹性的城市发展和设计 维护自然缓冲提高自然生态系统所提供的保护功能 增强各组织的韧弹性能力 理解和增强社会的韧弹性能力 增强基础设

29、施的韧弹性 确保有效的准备和灾难响应 快速重建并更好地恢复(UNISDR,2017)Five(5)steps:1.Engaging in Resilience through Organization and Preparation;2.Understanding Risk and Assessing Resilience;3.Establishing a Plan of Action;4.Financing and Implementing the Plan of Action;5.Monitoring and Evaluating the Plan of Action for Resili

30、ence.Practice Areas for Fostering Urban(climate)Resilience Make urban design and planning risk-informed Proactively control and manage urban social and economical vulnerability Enhance the role of urban green infrastructure in mitigating hazards and disaster impacts Promote the use of alternative en

31、ergy Build risk-aware urban communitiesSponge Cities InitiativeSponge City is a city where the urban groundwater system operates like a sponge to absorb,store,leak and purify rainwater,and release it for reuse when necessary.Permeable Ground SurfaceAn emerging industry New development policy require

32、dEconomic analysis of land-use for green infrastructure(Source:GO Chengdu)国家地震科技创新工程：韧性城乡 Climate Adaptation Cities Initiative Making Cities Resilient “My City is Getting Ready!”100 Resilient Cities Challenge How to Measure City Resilience?如果没有评价韧弹性的数值手段，就不可能确定优先需要改进的方面，监测变化，显示韧性已经改善，或比较增加韧性与相关成本的好处

33、。p 联合国国际减灾战略（UNISDR）的韧性城市指标体系于2011 年开始实施，旨在让城市和地方政府降低灾害风险，面对灾害变得有韧性。构建了“让城市更具韧性十大指标体系”，分析和评估城市风险，制定一个安全和具有韧性城市的行动计划，落实计划并监督和跟进。其内容主要包括 组织和管理框架、金融和资源、多灾种风险评估、基础设施保护、更新和韧性，保护重要市政设施、学校和医院，建筑法规和土地使用规划、教育培训和提高公众意识、环境保护和改善生态系统、有效准备、早期预警和反应、社区恢复和重建等（UNISDR,2017）。p 联合国人居署（UN-Habitat）韧性城市指标体系 联合国人居署（UN-Habit

34、at）提出的城市韧性研究方案（City Resilience Profiling Programme,CRPP）着重向国家和地方政府提供各种工具，用以衡量和提高应对多种灾害影响（包括与气候变化有关的影响）的韧弹性。p 美国洛克菲勒基金会的韧性城市指标体系 提出韧性城市的研究框架，由领导力及策略（Leadership&strategy）、健康及福祉（Health&wellbeing）、经济及社会（Economy&society）、基础设施及环境（Infrastructure&environment）4个维度组成，细化为12个目标。12个目标又被细化成52个绩效指标及150个变量。每一个变量的权重赋值相同，按照优秀、良好、中等、差和很差五个等级评分，最后进行加权评分。洛克菲勒基金会韧性城市指标体系（Rockefeller Foundation,2014）p世界经合组织（OECD）的韧性城市指标体系 世界经合组织（2014）将韧性城市指标分为经济、社会、体制和环境四个维度（OECD,2016）。Thanks!