公司财务讲义英文版(ppt-58页)课件.ppt
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- 公司财务 讲义 英文 ppt 58 课件
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1、1CORPORATE FINANCELING-NAN OUYANGPROFESSOR OF FINANCEINSTITUTE OF CONTEMPORARY FINANCESHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIVERSITY 2Valuing International Cash Flowsn M E(Cj,t)E(Ej,t)N j=1 nPV=t=1 (1+r)tnE(Cj,t)=expected cash flows denominated in currency j to be received by parent in period t.E(Ej,t)=expected exch
2、ange rate at which currency j can be converted to RMB at the end of period t.r=weighted average cost of capital of parent.M=number of currencies.N=number of periods.3Regression Model and Expectation(1)nRegression:measure relationships between variables when establishing policies.nEXPt=b0+b1 USDt-1+b
3、2 GNPt-1+ut.nEXPt=%change in China exports to the U.S.b0=a constant.USD=%change in the value of U.S.dollar.b1=regression coefficient measuring 1%change in USDt-1 will lead to x%change in EXPt.GNP=%change in the U.S.GNP.B2=regression coefficient measuring 1%change in GNPt-1 will lead to x%change in E
4、XPt.ut=an error term.4Regression Model and Expectation(2)nIf b0=0.002,b1=0.08,b2=0.36,USD1-1=5%,GNP1-1=-1%,if insert these figures into the regression model,EXP1=3.84%.It means that one year later China exports to the U.S.will increase 3.84%.5Equilibrium Spot Exchange Raten E(RMB/$1)S E0 D Q0 Q of$n
5、When D for$=S of$,Q0=the equilibrium quantity of$,E0=the equilibrium spot exchange rate.6Price Elasticity of Demand and Future Spot Exchange RatenE=(Q/Q)/(P/P).nE=price elasticity of demand.Q=quantity of goods demanded.P=price.Q=change in Q demanded for a change in P(P).If E 1,total spending goes up
6、 when P declines.E for$could have an impact on the future spot exchange rate of$and RMB.7Balance of Payments and Future Spot Exchange Rate(1)nCredits($inflows)Debits($outflows)na:Exports of civilian b:Imports of civilian goods goodsnc:Military sales d:Military purchase abroad abroad nTrade balance=a
7、+c-(b+d)8Balance of Payments and Future Spot Exchange Rate(2)ne:Exports of service f:Imports of services (investment income (investment income and fees earned,paid out,China foreign tourism in tourism abroad,China,etc.)etc.)n g:Net unilateral transfers(gifts)nCurrent account balance=a+c+e-(b+d+f+g)9
8、Balance of Payments and Future Spot Exchange Rate(3)nh:Foreign private i:China private investment in China investment abroadnj:Foreign official k:Chinese government lending in China lending abroadnCapital account balance=h+j-(i+k)n l:Net increase in China official reservesnOfficial reserves balancen
9、Note:Item h includes net errors and omissions.10Balance of Payments and Future Spot Exchange Rate(4)nIf China has a trade surplus against the U.S.,the value of RMB will be higher than that of$,spot rate will change.11Inflation and Future Spot Exchange RatenE(RMB/$1)S E1 S E0 D D Q1 Q of$nIf IF in Ch
10、ina that in the U.S.,supply of$will move from S to S because the Chinese are likely to decrease their purchases of U.S.imports.Meanwhile,demand for$will move from D to D because the Americans are likely to substitute China imports for U.S.products.Thus,spot exchange rate will move from E0 to E1.12In
11、terest Rate and Future Spot Exchange RatenAll other things being equal,when interest rate in China is greater than that in the U.S.,investors will switch from dollar to RMB to take advantage of the higher RMB interest rates.So,demand for$and supply of$will change,spot exchange rate will change.13Nat
12、ional Income and Future Spot Exchange RatenAn increase in China income will lead to more China imports from the U.S.as Chinese people spend some of income on U.S.products.This,however,would cause demand for$and supply of$to change and spot exchange rate to change.14Other Factors Affecting Future Spo
13、t Exchange RatenPolitical and economic environment:if political and economic environment in China is better than that in the U.S.,the value of RMB will be higher than that of$,spot rate will change.nInvestments:if Americans invest in China,demand for$and supply of$will change,spot rate will change.1
14、5Depreciation Versus AppreciationnSuppose that on July 19,2001,U.S.dollar devalued by 17%against RMB.If E0=initial RMB value of one dollar and E1=post-devaluation RMB value of one dollar,then we know that(E1-E0)/E0=-17%.Solving for E1 in terms of E0 yields E1=83%E0.Thus,the appreciation of RMB again
15、st U.S.dollar=(E0-E1)/E1=(E0-83%E0)/(83%E0)=20.48%.16Reasons for Government InterventionnReduce economic exposure a risk incurred by exchange rate fluctuations.nAdjust imports and exports.If RMB appreciates,China will lose comparative advantage in price against the U.S.,thus reduce exports.nEliminat
16、e the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation at home.17Approach to Government InterventionnE(RMB/$1)S E1 S E0 D D Q2 Q1 Q3 Q of$nTo maintain E0 in the face of E1,either the American government or the Chinese government or both must sell(Q3-Q2)dollars to purchase (Q3-Q2)E0 RMB,thereby elim
17、inating the demand for(Q3-Q2)dollars,and simultaneously eliminating the excess supply of (Q3 Q2)E0 RMB.18Terms to Keep Existing Exchange RatenTerms=international reserve/balance-of-payments deficit.19Spot Quotations(1)nDirect quotation:RMB/$1.nIndirect quotation:$/1 RMB.nBid quote:buy quote.nAsk quo
18、te:sell quote.20Spot Quotations(2)nAssume you have 10000 RMB.Also assume the Bank of Chinas bid rate for$1 is 8.4513 RMB and its ask rate is 8.4536 RMB.If you convert 10000 RMB into$,you get 10000/8.4536=$1182.93.If you reconvert the$1182.93 back to RMB,you get only 1182.93 8.4513=9997.30(RMB).The b
19、id/ask spread=10000-9997.30=2.7(RMB).Or,the bid/ask spread=(8.4536-8.4513)/8.4536=0.03%.21Forward QuotationsnOutright rate:actual rate.90-day forward bid=8.2142RMB/$1.nSwap rate:a forward differential=discount from,or a premium on,spot rate.If spot rate=8.1023-30 RMB/$1,90-day forward rate=26-22,90-
20、day forward bid has 8.1026-8.1023=0.0003 RMB premium,90-day forward ask has 8.1030-8.1022=0.0008 RMB discount.22Forward Rate Premium or DiscountnExchange for$1 RMB FP or FD Spot 8.4513 30-day forward 8.4511 -0.03%90-day forward 8.4526 0.06%180-day forward 8.4618 0.01%nFP=forward premium,FD=forward d
21、iscount.FP or FD=(forward-spot)/spot (360/days of forward).23Forward Rate Fluctuation and Cash FlowsnCash flow$depreciation$appreciation S P S P Export sales I I or D D D or I Local sales D D or I I I or D Local expenses D D I I Import expenses I I or D D D or InS=subsidiary in the U.S.P=parent in C
22、hina.I=increase.D=decrease.24Cross Exchange RatenExchange rate of currency A to currency B=exchange rate of RMB to A/exchange rate of RMB to B.nIf the exchange rate of RMB to U.S.$=8.2798 RMB/$1,the exchange rate of RMB to HK$=1.0627 RMB/HK$1,the exchange rate of U.S.$to KH$=8.2798/1.0627=7.7913(HK$
23、s/U.S.$1).25Interest Rate Parity and Future Spot RatenIRP:r=(1+if)(1+p)-1.Where r=rate of return from interest arbitrage(buy foreign currency with home currency,invest it on foreign deposit,convert interest back to home currency).if=interest rate of foreign currency.P=forward premium or discount.nSi
24、nce r=ih(interest rate of home currency),p=(1+ih)/(1+if)-1 ih-if.nIf 6-months iRMB=5%,6-months i$=6%,p -1%.Chinese investors will receive 1%less when selling$6-months from now than what they pay for$at spot rate;and,(ih-if)will influence the future spot rate.26Purchasing Power Parity and Future Spot
25、 RatenPPP:Pf (1+If)(1+ef)=Ph (1+Ih).Where Pf=price index of foreign country.If=inflation rate of foreign country.ef=%change in value of foreign currency.h=home country.nSince Ph=Pf,ef=(1+Ih)/(1+If)-1 Ih-If.nIf IRMB=5%,I$=3%,e$2%.$will appreciate by 2%.If IRMB=4%,I$=7%,e$-3%.$will depreciate by 3%.nB
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