代谢增长论市场份额竞争学习不确定性和技术产业-精品课件.ppt

1、代谢增长论：市场份额竞争，学习不确定性，和技术（产业）小波 Ping Chen 陈平陈平 pchenccer.pku.eduCenter for New Political EconomyFudan University,Shanghai,ChinaPresented at 14th ISS Conference at Brisbane,AustraliaJuly 2,2019北京大学 国家发展研究院 2019年11月22日灵感的由来：观潮而思观潮而思四十五年 文革长征：太原重机厂太原重机厂的调查（1967年春）西方禁运：劳动分工受市场规模限制 李约瑟，费正清，裴宜理，黄宗智，和普里戈金用物理

2、学方法研究历史历史（1979-85）布鲁塞尔学派：生命起源蚂蚁的劳动分工模型蚂蚁的劳动分工模型（1977-81）现代劳动分工与东西方文明的分岔人和蚂蚁的差别？日本物理学家日本物理学家的观察引入文化因子文化因子（1983-87）从自组织经济复杂系统演化动力学演化动力学复杂演化经济学复杂演化经济学 理论生态学的复杂性佯谬复杂性佯谬亚当-斯密悖论一般斯密原理（2019，2019）中国模式的辩论挑战内生增长论和知识积累伦 代谢增长论代谢增长论（2019-14）修正经济学的基本观念基本观念 市场竞争市场竞争的本质：价格竞争还是市场份额竞市场份额竞争争？价格机制价格机制：边际定价，成本加成定价，还是策略定

3、价价(strategic pricing)?技术进步的基本模式：可预测的风险可预测的风险和不可不可预测预测的不确定性？经济发展的基本动力是知识扩散知识扩散，还是资源资源与市场市场的开发、竞争与淘汰淘汰？经济决策是完全信息下的理性优化理性优化决策，还是陌生机遇下的试错试错和模仿模仿？经济学经济学的基本问题基本问题（1）经济增长是否受资源约束资源约束（马尔萨斯问题）？新古典人性的自私贪婪自私贪婪假设=资源无限 线性优化模型 资源有限演化经济学的非线性竞争演化模型（2）如何描写技术更新对经济发展的作用？新古典经济学：噪声驱动连续变化优化过程 理论生态学：小波更迭连续与跃迁试错过程李约瑟问题李约瑟问题

4、-华勒斯坦佯谬 劳动分工和东西方文明分岔代谢增长论产业（文明）兴衰 生态模型引入经济学(Samuelson 1971)文化因子引入学习竞争(Chen 1987)资源约束市场份额竞争(陈平 2019)斯密悖论复杂系统稳定性与复杂性的矛盾(Chen 2019)逻辑斯蒂小波创造性毁灭知识新陈代谢挑战内生增长论(Chen 2019,2019)一石五鸟（1）生态学引入行为因素（2）个人主义与集体主义的竞争策略与赶超模式（3）经济学价格竞争转为市场份额竞争，边际定价、成本加成定价，与策略定价（4）经济学与复杂科学重新定义国富=规模经济+范围经济（资源多样性）新的绿色增长方式（5）一般斯密原理：劳动分工受市

5、场规模、资源种类、环境涨落的限制（6）经济动力学统一理论（微观，中观，宏观，制度）的共同模块生命周期的小波模型（7）虚拟经济重新生态化社会人与经济生态Fundamental Causes of Asian Emergence:Two Competing Perspectives Neo-classical perspective:nothing new tech diffusion+high investment export-led growth convergence in growth and culture Evolutionary perspective:ecological cri

6、sis+new wave of industrial revolution structural changes in economies and organization rise of East Asia&decline of West Theoretical challenge:which growth theory is relevant in the global age?Which Growth Theory Is Relevant to Modern History?Average Annual GDP Growth Rate(1913-2019)-PeriodWEuroEEur

7、oAsiaUSfUSSRJapanChina-1913-501.190.860.822.842.152.21-0.021950-734.794.865.173.934.849.295.021973-20192.211.015.412.94-0.422.716.72-Source:Maddison(2019),UN StatisticsUneven Growth in Globalization(Annual Real GDP growth rate per decade)Period1970s1980s1990s2000s-China6.29.3 10.4 10.5Japan3.84.61.2

8、0.7US3.23.23.41.6Germany2.92.31.90.9East Asia4.45.53.34.0Latin America6.11.53.23.1East Europe4.42.3 -2.04.3West Europe3.12.32.11.1Australia&NZ2.82.93.63.0World3.83.12.82.5-(Data Source:UN Statistics)Main Issues in Economic Theory 1.Equilibrium vs.non-equilibrium growth theory convergence/divergence

9、vs.rise&fall 2.Concept of knowledge and nature of technology static vs.evolutionary perspective 3.Population dynamics of creative destruction resource constrains and technology wavelets 4.Learning competition and culture strategy different growth mode in West and East labor-saving vs.resource-saving

10、 technology 5.East Asia and China experience technology cycle,mixed economy,and helping handNeoclassical Growth Theory:Convergence vs.divergence story Exogenous growth theory(Solow 1956):Constant Returns Convergence Endogenous growth theory(Romer 1990):Learning by doing=Knowledge Accumulation(Arrow

11、1962)Increasing Returns Divergence Persistent divide between Rich and Poor Puzzle:how to understand rise and fall of civilizations and great powers?Metabolic growth theory(Chen 1987,2019,2019,2019)Economic Insight and Theoretical Modeling Adam Smith division of labor is limited by market extent Mars

12、hall economics should be close to biology and dynamics Hayek knowledge is a discovery process Schumpeter development means creative destruction Frank Knight risk and uncertainty in marketMethodological Issue:How to Describe Technology Advancement?Technology as random shock:Solow residual,RBC school

13、macro econometrics Technology as continuous trajectory:knowledge capital,increasing returns Technology as logistic growth turned into logistic wavelets population dynamics for Schumpeters creative destructionUnlimited vs.Limited(Logistic)Growtha1=0.6,a2=1,a3=1.4;K=4,Rlogis=4.0Theoretical Issue:What

14、Determines the Size of Market Extent?Smith theorem:division of labor is limited by market extent=market niche depends on resource and technology logistic growth=varying returns to scale source of nonlinearity&complexity Neoclassical production function ignores resource constraints unlimited(exponent

15、ial)growth equilibrium thinking and consumerism root of ecological crisis+financial crisisEvidence of Logistic Growth:US Automobile Industry(Output as Percentage of GDP)1 9 0 01 9 1 01 9 2 01 9 3 01 9 4 01 9 5 01 9 6 01 9 7 0012345R a tio o f To ta l A u to S a le to G D Pratio(%)Technology Wavelets

16、,Growth Cycles,and Creative Destruction in Species Competition Model010020030040050000.511.522.5Logis tic Com petitiontim epopulation China Approach in Adapting Tech Cycle:Helping Hand at Varying Stages I(initial stage).strategic planning,technology import,tech transfer from science&defense sector t

17、o civilian industry II(take-off stage).open competition under mixed economy,selective opening in industrial park,government matching fund for FDI,market regulation for virtuous competition III(mature stage).breaking monopoly+encouraging innovation IV(transition stage).assistance for close-down obsol

18、ete industry,re-education of laid-off workers,reform policy&stabilizing policyObservable Patterns inChanging Return to Scale Cobb-Douglas production function static(fixed)return to scale Logistic growth logistic curve dynamic return to scale dynamic increasing returns(first half)+decreasing returns(

19、second half)+constant returns(infinite future)to scale Species competition logistic wavelets rise&fall of waveletsOrigin of Culture Diversity:Culture As Learning Strategy for Emerging Markets&Resources Equilibrium thinking culture convergence universal value and institute Non-equilibrium thinking cu

20、lture diversity varying strategies for adapting to changing environment coexistence of individualist and collectivists speciesWhy East(Asia and China)Is Different from West?Two modes of division of labor in history:East resource-saving/labor-intensive technology agriculture revolution rise of East W

21、est labor-saving/resource-intensive technology industrial revolution rise of West Crises of modern civilization:Global warming ecological crisis Job crisis machine crowding out people What is the impact of information revolution?Wallerstein Paradox and Causes of Culture Diversity Historical paradox

22、Why resource-rich European needs more existence space while highly populated China needs more labor during civilization bifurcation about 14-17th century?Ecological constraints for growth resource/population ratio strategic choice under uncertainty Culture orientation shaped by environment labor sav

23、ing vs.resource saving technology individualism vs.collectivism path dependence in development processThree Types of Learning Strategies and Risk Attitudes Learning by doing(Smith:pin-making)knowledge accumulation gradual change risk-neutral culture Learning by trying(pioneers in fire,electricity)kn

24、owledge creation abrupt change risk-taking culture Learning by imitating(late-comers)catch-up game risk-averse culture Modeling approach:from static theory of risk aversion to nonlinear dynamics of varying risk behaviorCulture Factor and Learning Strategy in Facing New and Uncertain Technology Behav

25、ioral factor R(a)0a1 Collectivism=risk averse-1a labor-saving but resource-consuming economyChinese grain-production resource-saving but labor-intensive economy *0*0*0aaannnCompetitive Exclusion&Coexistence in Two Species Model The condition of co-existence Two collectivists cannot coexist;Two indiv

26、idualists may coexist;No.of species No.of resources)1()1)(1()1)(1()1(2222222111121111222111NsrNsraNsrNNNsraNsrNsrLand Use in 1993(Maddison 2019,p.28)-Region Total(m hc)Arable(%)Pop(m)ArabLand per head(hc)-China959.7101178.40.08Japan37.811.8124.80.04India328.851.6899.00.19Europe487.727.8506.90.26US98

27、0.919.1239.20.73USSR2240.310.3293.00.79Canada997.64.628.41.58Australia771.46.017.82.62Resource intensity:West mode 10 times or more of East modeCatch-Up Game between Innovators and Imitators Complex patterns of rise and fall between individualist and collectivism Collectivist will catch and win by i

28、mitating existing technology Individualist will survive by faster innovation&learning by trying emerging technology Collectivist has greater stability under fluctuating environment A mixed system of individualists and collectivists is more stable than a pure system of two individualists时代变迁与规范更新 罗马俱

29、乐部报告增长的极限系统工程兴起（196？）数学的突破与质疑：突变，分岔、混沌（1970s）生物学家怀疑(Gould)资本主义与社会主义竞争谁胜谁负？普里戈金不信（1986），苏东瓦解后赞赏（1992）。劳动分工的优化模式（杨小凯）与演化模式（陈平）（1990）。金融危机与中国崛起接受代谢增长论方法论问题方法论问题 真实经济与货币经济 均衡与非均衡的机制 线性与非线性思维 理论与计算机模拟 萨缪尔森问题(2019)：陈平工作是否会产生新的规范(paradigm)?普里戈金问题：混沌产生有序什么的新的秩序？陈平探索：从复杂经济学演化经济学 代谢经济学代谢经济学Conclusion Growth i

30、s an evolutionary dynamics in non-equilibrium open system,which is more complex than optimization process in equilibrium closed system Population dynamics is a useful framework for economic dynamics,which is shaped by ecological constraints and market-share competition Metabolic growth theory descri

31、bes essential features of creative destruction in modern economy.Logistic wavelet is a better mathematical representation for technology progress and growth cycles than harmonic cycle and random shocks in neoclassical economics.Liberalization policy in Washington Consensus is misleading for emerging

32、 and transition economies,since it ignores the uncertainty and sunk costs in technology advancement and uneven globalizationReferencesChen,Ping,Origin of the Division of Labor and a Stochastic Mechanism of Differentiation,European Journal of Operational Research,30,246-250(1987).Chen,Ping,“Evolution

33、ary Economic Dynamics:Persistent Business Cycles,Disruptive Technology,and the Trade-Off between Stability and Complexity,”in Dopfer,Kurt,ed.,The Evolutionary Foundations of Economics,Chapter 15,pp.472-505,Cambridge University Press,Cambridge,(2019).Chen,Ping,Equilibrium Illusion,Economic Complexity

34、,and Evolutionary Foundation of Economic Analysis,”Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review,5(1),81-127(2019).Chen,Ping,Economic Complexity and Equilibrium Illusion,Routledge,London(2019).Arrow,Kenneth J.The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing,Review of Economic Studies,39,155(1962).Ma

35、ddison,Angus,Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run,OECD,Paris(2019).Solow,Robert M.A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,Quarterly Journal of Economics,70(1),65-94(1956).Romer,Paul M.“Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,”Journal of Political Economy,94,1002-38(1986).Rostow,Walt W

36、.The Stages of Economic Growth,3rd ed.,Cambridge University Press,Cambridge(1990).Prigogine,Ilya,Allen,Peter M.,and Robert Herman,“Long Term Trends and the Evolution of Complexity”,in Ervin Laszlo ed.,Goals for a Global Community:A Report to the Club of Rome,Pergamon Press,Oxford(1977).Acknowledgements The growth cycles based on species competition model was inspired by works developed in Brussels and Austin in 1970s-1980s,including Peter Allen,St.Louis Deneubourg,Gregory Nicolis,I.Prigogine,Walt Rostow,and David Kendrick.Contact Information pchenccer.edu complexeconomics.org/