西方报刊经贸文章选读第五版unit3精编版课件.ppt

1、 Lesson 3The New Pattern of the World Economy-Emerging nations powering global economic boom当代世界经济格局的演变及其特征当代世界经济格局的演变及其特征 二战后初期-20世纪60年代末美国独霸的世界经济格局 美国独掌资本主义世界经济霸权，统一的世界经济体系被截然分裂为两个互不联系的独立的经济体系。20世纪70年代后世界经济格局多极化发展 两大阵营的对立开始缓和，其他经济力量迅速发展与美国经济霸权的相对衰落，共同推动了世界经济格局向多级方向的转变。20世纪80年代以来世界经济格局的新变化 苏联世界经济大国

2、地位消失；东亚经济迅速崛起；世界经济体系内部矛盾发生变化：西方国家固有的经济矛盾显露出来，南北矛盾加剧。发达经济体发达经济体VS.新兴市场和发展中国家新兴市场和发展中国家金砖五国通货膨胀率与存款利率的关系通货膨胀率与存款利率的关系通货膨胀通货膨胀是由于流动性过剩产生的，说白了就是市场上流通的钱太多了，通货膨胀率高，钱就贬值，人们就要抓紧买东西，不存钱了。提高银行存款利率，有利于回笼市场中流动的资金，从而可以抑制通货膨胀。所以，从表面上看，一般通货膨胀率较高时，存款利率会相应的提高，其作用是为了使得通货膨胀率降低。利率对投资规模的影响利率对投资规模的影响 利率对投资规模的影响是指利率作为投资的机

3、会成本对社会总投资的影响。在投资收益不变的条件下，因利率上升而导致的投资成本增加，必然使那些投资收益较低的投资者退出投资领域，从而使投资需求减少。相反，利率下跌则意味着投资成本下降，从而刺激投资，使社会总投资增加。正是由于利率具有这一作用，西方经济理论界与货币管理当局都把利率视为衡量经济运行状况的一个重要指标和调节经济运行的重要手段。因此，自30年代大萧条以来，控制利率水平在西方货币政策体系中曾一度占有举足轻重的地位。利率的变化对股市的影响利率的变化对股市的影响 1利率的上升，不仅会增加公司的借款成本，而且还会使公司难以获得必需的资金，这样，公司就不得不削减生产规模，而生产规模的缩小又势必会减

4、少公司的未来利润。因此，股票价格就会下降。反之，股票价格就会上涨。2利率上升时，投资者据以评估股票价值所在的折现率也会上升，股票价值因此会下降，从而，也会使股票价格相应下降；反之，利率下降时，股票价格就会上升。3利率上升时，一部分资金从投向股市转向到银行储蓄和购买债券，从而会减少市场上的股票需求，使股票价格出现下跌。反之，利率下降时，储蓄的获利能力降低，一部分资金就可能回到股市中来，从而扩大对股票的需求，使股票价格上涨。利率与经济发展速度的关系利率与经济发展速度的关系 利率高低与经济发展速度成正比利率高低与经济发展速度成正比发达国家经济增长慢，贷款需求低，利率低发展中国家经济增长快，贷款需求大

5、，利率高True or False 1.Now the global economy is going through the broadest and strongest expansion.2.Developed countries are still playing a dominant role in the global economy.3.The simplest yardstick of economic success for a country is its growth in GDP.(T)(F)(F)True or False 4.With globalization o

6、f world economy,the employment,import-spending and the living standard of people worldwide have risen a lot.5.The developed world has also benefited a lot from the emerging nations.6.There are great voices that go against globalization for the unevenly distributed prosperity.(F)(T)(T)True or False 7

7、.The greatest risk to the economic boom is national protectionism.8.To ensure a stable economic growth,emerging countries should encourage more domestic consumption.(F)(T)Structure General situation of global economy Emerging economies Comparison between developing nations and the developed world Im

8、pact on the developed world and the developing world Risks to the global economic boom Solution ConclusionGeneral situation of global economy 1.What is the general economic situation of the world?(Read Paragraph 1-3.)The global economy is on a growth streak that is shaping up to be the broadest and

9、strongest expansion in more than three decades.2.What countries are playing a dominant role in the global economy currently?And what is the trend driven by?(Read Paragraph 4-6.)The developing countries are playing a dominant role.The trend is driven by free trade.Bridgewater Associates 布里奇沃特投资公司布里奇沃

10、特投资公司Bridgewater Associates is an American investment management firm founded in 1975.The firm serves institutional clients including pension funds,endowments,foundations,foreign governments and central banks.与一般对冲基金不同的是，布里奇沃特投资公司不为富人管理金钱，而是只跟养老基金和主权财富基金等大型机构合作。布里奇沃特投资公司布里奇沃特投资公司总部是一幢不起眼的砖石玻璃结构三层楼房，

11、坐落在康涅狄格州韦斯特波特县一片 22 亩的茂密林地中，在格林尼治海岸以北约 20 英里。View of lake and trees surrounding the corporate headquarters in Westport,ConnecticutEmerging economies 3.Which countries are cited as examples of emerging economies?What is driving the economic growth of these countries respectively?(Para.7-Para.16)Sowet

12、o swi:tu索维托小镇Comparison between developing nations and the developed world 4.What is the simplest yardstick of economic success for a country?How faster might the economy of the developing nations grow than that of the developed in 2006?(Read Paragraph 17.)Its a countrys growth in real gross domesti

13、c product,or how fast its total output of goods and services is rising after inflation.The growth rate of the developing world might be more than double that of the developed world in 2006 according to the IMF.International Monetary Fund，IMF 国际货币基金组织国际货币基金组织 于于1945年年12月月27日成立，为世界两大金融日成立，为世界两大金融机构之一，

14、职责是机构之一，职责是监察货币汇率和各国贸监察货币汇率和各国贸易情况、提供技术和资金协助易情况、提供技术和资金协助，确保全球，确保全球金融制度金融制度运作正常；其总部设在运作正常；其总部设在华盛顿华盛顿。截至截至2012年年4月，国际货币基金组织共有月，国际货币基金组织共有188个成员国个成员国,要成为成员国，该国的申请要成为成员国，该国的申请须得到大多数现有成员国的同意。须得到大多数现有成员国的同意。基金组织通过以下三项主要职能来达致促基金组织通过以下三项主要职能来达致促进国际金融体系稳定的目的。进国际金融体系稳定的目的。监督：监督国际货币体系和成员国的政策，并跟踪各地的经济和金融情况，在必

15、要时提出警告；贷款：向有国际收支困难的国家贷款；技术援助和培训：帮助成员国发展健全的制度和经济政策工具。World Bank Group 世界银行（WBG）是世界银行集团的俗称，“世界银行”这个名称一直是用于指国际复兴开发银行（IBRD）和国际开发协会（IDA）。这些机构联合向发展中国家提供低息贷款、无息信贷和赠款。世界银行成立于1945年12月27日，1946年6月开始营业。总部设在美国首都华盛顿。凡是参加世界银行的国家必须首先是国际货币基金组织的会员国。世界银行是一个国际组织，一开始它的目的是帮助欧洲国家和日本在二战后的重建，此外它应该辅助非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲国家的经济发展。一开始世界银行

16、的贷款主要集中于大规模的基础建设。日本和西欧国家“毕业”（达到一定的人均收入水平）后世界银行完全集中于发展中国家。从1990年代初开始世界银行也开始向东欧国家和原苏联国家贷款。Impact on the developed world4.With globalization of the world economy,what has happened to employment,import-spending and the living standard of some people in the developed countries?(Read Paragraph 20-23.)With

17、 the developed worlds growth lagging well behind that of emerging economies in the globalization,wages in the U.S.have been slow to rise in recent years,unemployment rates remain stubbornly high in Western Europe,and the living standard of some people are improved little in industrialized nations.An

18、d with the rapid development of the emerging economies in the globalization,the demand and the prices for commodities are increasingly high and developed countries pay more for their oil and other commodity imports.5.And how much has the developed world benefited from the progress of the globalizati

19、on?(Read Paragraph 24-33.)The emerging economies offer a vast market to the industrialized countries.U.S.corporations are selling more abroad than ever before.Global demand for Japanese exports has helped pull the nation out of a 15-year funk.Global growth also has kept Germany at the top of the lis

20、t of world exporters.And low-cost goods from developing nations have helped keep inflation pressures muted despite the jump in oil prices everywhere in the world.Impact on the Developing countries 6.Why is there a mounting backlash against the economic globalization?(Read Paragraph 34-38.)Because“pr

21、osperity isnt evenly distributed.”Risks to the Economic Boom 7.What are the risks to the boom?(Read Paragraph 39-42.)The potential for a mounting backlash against globalization,in both the developing and developed worlds,is one big risk to the economic boom.The greater risk to the boom is that it wi

22、ll sow the seeds of its own demise by fostering rising inflation and interest rates.Steroid 类固醇类固醇,学名叫做“肾上腺皮质素”，正常人的肾上腺每天都会分泌一定量的类固醇来维持体内正常的生理运作，如调节血糖、蛋白质、脂肪、及电解质的代谢，它是维持生命不可或缺的重要荷尔蒙。临床上类固醇是很好的药物，它可被广泛应用于治疗许多疑难杂症即特殊的疾病，几乎到了无病不可用的境地；而且确实会减轻许多的症状，使症状得到暂时的舒解，所以它又博得“仙丹”之名。Benchmark interest rate基准利率基准利率

23、,是金融市场上具有普遍参照作用的利率，其他利率水平或金融资产价格均可根据这一基准利率水平来确定。在利率市场化条件下，融资者衡量融资成本，投资者计算投资收益，以及管理层对宏观经济的调控，客观上都要求有一个普遍公认的基准利率水基准利率水平平作参考。在中国，以中国人民银行对国家专业银行和其他金融机构规定的存贷款利率为基准利率。Tighten Credit 紧缩信贷紧缩信贷 一般来说，信贷紧缩是指经营贷款的金融机构提高贷款标准，以高于市场利率水平的条件发放贷款，甚至不愿发放贷款，从而导致信贷增长下降，信贷资金难以满足社会再生产的合理需求的现象。Solutions 8.What should the e

24、xport-dependent developing nations do if they could not export to the U.S.as much as now?(Read Paragraph 49.)They should encourage more consumption at home and among other emerging-market trading partnersLesson 3 Text 推动经济增长to boost economies 复苏 recovery 新兴国家emerging nation(country)去掉了通货膨胀因素地 adjust

25、ed for inflation 解除经济管制economic deregulation 推动消费需求 to power consumer demand 免税商店duty-free shop 购买能力buying capacity 零售retail 消费品consumer goods 衡量标准yardstick 按实际购买力估值的国内生产总值 real gross domestic product 工业化国家industrialized nation(country)触发贸易保护主义情绪 to trigger protectionist sentiment 急剧上升的价格 zooming pr

26、ice 初级产品commodity 生活水平 living standards 财富的转移 a transfer of wealth 标准普尔500家股票价格指数 Standard&Poors 500 index 经纪公司brokerage 股票市场 stock market 提高短期利率 to raise short-term interest rate 抵消 to offset 达到50年最高点to hit a fifty-year high 均匀地分布to distribute evenly 超过50%to top 50%国有化to nationalize 对中国商品征收新的关税 to

27、slap new tariff on Chinese goods 暴跌to tumble 联邦储备银行（美国）the Federal Reserve 紧缩信贷to tighten credit 依靠出口的发展中国家 export-dependent country 需求下降a drop in demandMaybe developing nations are not emerging but have emerged Theme?Developing nations have emerged(Real GDP growth,current account)Structure?Current

28、account 经常项目经常项目，一国国际收支的主要组成部分，主要包括商品贸易收支，即有形货物的进出口，及服务贸易收支，即诸如旅游、银行及保险等各种服务的往来。另外，还包括单方面转移款项，主要包括移民转移款项、侨民汇款，政府无偿援助、赠款，政府向国际组织缴纳的行政费用等。经常项目不包含长期借贷和投资的资金流，这些均是资本账户上的项目。True or False 1.Since 1990s,developing nations,have entered a stage of rapid and healthy economic growth.2.U.S.economy has kept a co

29、ntinuous growth,but still slower than most of those emerging economies.3.When we see the global economy,we should consider many factors,such as growth rates,inflation or monetary conditions,especially those in developing countries.(F)(T)(F)4.When we check a countrys economy,its real GDP growth will

30、give us a fairly credible idea.5.The current account surpluses indicate that a nation is enjoying a healthy and stable economic boom,which will prevent it from currency crises.(T)(F)Supplementary Reading 欧元区the Euro-zone 尚可的经济增长率 a respectable growth rate 经济呆滞不景气economic slack 金融状况monetary conditions 成为的牺牲品to fall victim to.脆弱的vulnerable 资本逃离capital flight