荷兰石油SWOT分析课件.ppt
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- 荷兰 石油 SWOT 分析 课件
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1、NoImageRoland Berger&Partners Ltd.International Management ConsultantsBarcelona Beijing Berlin Brussels Bucharest Budapest Buenos Aires Delhi Detroit Dsseldorf Frankfurt HamburgHelsinki Hong Kong Kiev Kuala Lumpur Lisbon London Madrid Milan Moscow Munich New York ParisPrague Riga Rome So Paulo Shang
2、hai Stockholm Stuttgart Tel Aviv Tokyo Vienna ZurichLON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.pptSector Sketch and SWOT Analysis of the Dutch Oil Sector Final Presentation Dutch Ministry of Economic AffairsOil DivisionThe Hague,3rd February 2019第1页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-2-NoImageA conflict appears to
3、 be emerging between the traditional Dutch economic strengths and more recent environmental concernsDutch economic prosperityOil industry focussed on exportsFounded on tradingMotor of Rotterdam trading strengthDutch environmentLegitimate environmental concernsHigh population density low-lying-vulner
4、able to Global warming Global warming Congestion NoiseExport industry must be internationally competitive to surviveTough environmental stanceConflict第2页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-3-NoImageContentsPageA.Extracts from Sector SketchB.Feedback from oil and chemical company interviewsC.SWOT An
5、alysisC.1.StrengthsC.2.WeaknessesC.3.OpportunitiesC.4.ThreatsD.Recommendations47111217232631第3页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-4-NoImageA.Extracts from Sector Sketch第4页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-5-NoImageThe Dutch oil industry has traditionally been strong and internationally orientat
6、edRefining and ChemicalsTradingPorts Only 15%of total oil supply destined for home market Accounts for 9%of EU refining capacity Key synergies with and supply to Dutch chemicals industry Benelux chemical cluster is second largest in Europe Rotterdam worlds leading port for 30 years Road,rail,inland
7、waterway and pipeline connections to many major markets Major oil trading market in the EU time zone and one of the big 3 globally(Rotterdam,Houston,Singapore)第5页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-6-NoImageEach sector in the oil industry faces important issues affecting its competitive positionOil
8、 refining Increasing costs of environmental compliance Mergers/alliances change the competitive scene Overcapacity and low returnsStorage Supports the international business Fosters independent traders Overcapacity and low returnsTrading Strong role of refining companies Dependent on critical mass o
9、f Rotterdam marketBunkering Important fuel oil outlet for refiners Refiners becoming dominantPipelines Pipelines and waterways key to Rotterdam logistical advantage Dominated by private or consortium owned pipelinesChemicals Important synergies with oil sector Sector entering downturn Long-term grow
10、th potential第6页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-7-NoImageB.Feedback from oil and chemical company interviews第7页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-8-NoImageEnvironmental and clean-up regulations were central to views expressed by most intervieweesRole of the NetherlandsDecisionmaking bodiesLand
11、 releaseCurrent situationIndustry viewpointAlternative approachGoes ahead of competing countries on environmental issuesThis undermines competitive position of oil and chemical industriesLead by influencing EU consensus rather than by exampleSignificant regional and national variation on environment
12、al regulationsCompetition to be greenerVariation prevents the existence of a level playing fieldPlace environmental decision making and implementation in the hands of one bodyClean-up costs are a formidable exit barrierLand can be released if economically viableCosts of clean-up should be balanced a
13、gainst cost of land reclamationHowever,the governments willingness to discuss and reach consensus was appreciated第8页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-9-NoImageAll interviewees recognised the World Class infrastructure of Rotterdam,although there are three major contentious issuesPort feesCommonca
14、rrier pipelineMaasvlakte 2Current situationIndustry viewpointAlternative approachHarbour dues based on tonnage rather than services usedRotterdam is more expensive than Antwerp,Le Havre or Hamburg.The oil industry subsidises the container industryBase charges more on services than on tonnage basisNo
15、 common-carrier pipeline existsMay be economically viableConsider common carrier where extra flexibility needed,but compensate owners of pipelines for investment and riskPositive discussion likely:new land reclamation at high costExtra land will favour chemical sectorThe oil industry does not requir
16、e extra landEnsure proper funding for Maasvlakte 2:No burden on oil industry第9页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-10-NoImagePressure for rationalisation is likely to coincide with timing of investment to meet future fuel specificationsOvercapacityFuture fuel specificationsCurrent situationIndustry
17、 viewpointDespite recent closures,there remains up to 15%overcapacity As many as 13 EU refineries need to close Issue complicated further by recent mergers Clean-up costs remain the biggest barrier to exit;social costs are also significantTarget specifications for 2019 require 40 bn investment acros
18、s the EUOf the Dutch refineries,only Esso and Shell are well placed to meet 2019 specs without major investment第10页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-11-NoImageC.SWOT Analysis第11页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-12-NoImageC.1.Strengths第12页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-13-NoImageThe Dutc
19、h oil sector is large and well concentrated,accounting for 9%of EU refining capacity(compared to 4.5%consumption)EuropoortPernisNoImageCrude Capacity(b/d)NerefcoShellEssoTotalKPIS&H374,000400,000180,000148,00070,00010,000BotlekVlissingen+xAmsterdamEuropoort79,500KochEuropoortSource:Ministry of Econo
20、mic Affairs第13页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-14-NoImageAll elements of the oil sector are closely integratedChemical clusterRefiningInternational trading portOpen and co-operative governmentStorage and BunkeringServices,utilities and contractors第14页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-15-NoIm
21、ageThis integration is supported by world class infrastructureHarbours and terminals Deep water harbours,particularly Rotterdam Direct accessibility for the worlds largest tankers High volume capacity and short turn-around time Extensive barge handlingPipelines Supply Belgium and Germany with crude
22、and products Connections to major chemical clusters in and beyond the Netherlands More than 1100km network within Rotterdam linking producers and storage companiesRoad and Rail Considerable infrastructure currently in place Major investment programme in progress第15页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.p
23、pt-16-NoImageThe Dutch ports,particularly Rotterdam,benefit from advantageous locations Close to North Sea oil fields Natural port for ME crudes destined for NW European market Holland one of the most densely populated European countries Population of 160 million within 500km radius Navigable inland
24、 waterways to major markets第16页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-17-NoImageC.2.Weaknesses第17页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-18-NoImageOvercapacity has led to low profitability in the Dutch oil sector and increasing pressure for rationalisationRefiningStorageOvercapacity in Holland reflects
25、the trend in EU as a wholeExport refineries with low conversion capacity are vulnerable(although speciality niches help profitability)Long term structural overcapacityRecent mergers and alliances create an uncertain outcome for Dutch oil第18页,共38页。LON-P-04358-001-02-50-08v3.ppt-19-NoImageOf the Nethe
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