铁合金出口大幅减少1FerroalloyExportsTumbled课件.ppt

1、20092009年铁合金行业运行预测年铁合金行业运行预测Outlook on Ferroalloy Industry in 2009 中国铁合金工业协会中国铁合金工业协会 张曾蟾张曾蟾 China Ferroalloys Industry Association Zhang Zengchan一、一、2009年铁合金行业面临全球经济衰退、市场需求萎缩年铁合金行业面临全球经济衰退、市场需求萎缩Ferroalloy Industry Sees Market Shrinkage amid Global Economic Recession 1、世界金融危机的影响正进一步扩大，全球经济陷入严重衰退、世界

2、金融危机的影响正进一步扩大，全球经济陷入严重衰退1、Worlds Economy Contracted in a Severe Recession with Ongoing Financial Crisis 世界银行2008年12月9日发布的2009年全球经济展望报告认为，2009年世界经济增长率将由2008年预计的2.5调整到0.9，在发达国家增长率为负值的情况下，发展中国家平均增长率将保持在4.5%左右。According to 2009 Global Economic Prospect released on December 9 2008 by World Bank,world eco

3、nomic growth in 2009 is expected to decrease from the anticipated 2.5%to 0.9%,and average rate of developing countries will remain at 4.5%or so while developed countries will face recession.国际货币基金组织(IMF)继2008年11月6日发布报告，预测2009年世界经济增长将从2008年预计的3.7回落到2.2之后，2009年1月28日发布的最新报告对2009年世界经济增长预期再次调低至0.5%，成为二战以

4、来的最低水平，全球经济将陷入衰退。After released a report on November 6 2008 forecasting that world economic growth in 2009 will decrease from the anticipated 3.7%to 2.2%,IMF issued a report again on January 28 2009 that the economic growth will drop to 0.5%,predicting the worst global recession since World War II.一

5、、一、2009年铁合金行业面临全球经济衰退、市场需求萎缩年铁合金行业面临全球经济衰退、市场需求萎缩Ferroalloy Industry Sees Market Shrinkage amid Global Economic Recession 其中，发达工业国家经济增长率-2，远低于11月份预测-0.3的降幅，整体上将陷入二战以来的首次经济衰退，除加拿大外所有发达工业国的经济都将出现负增长。国际货币基金组织(IMF)还认为新兴和发展中经济体的增长也明显放缓，将从2008年的6.3降为3.3，也远低于上次预测5.1%的经济增长率。Particularly,the growth of develo

6、ped countries is set at-2%,far lower than the anticipation in November 2008 of-0.3%,slipped into the worst recession since 1930s,and every developed country except Canada will face economic recession.IMF also thinks emerging economies growth will slow down obviously as well,down from 6.3%in 2008 to

7、3.3%in 2009,which is also lower than the anticipated 5.1%.由于世界经济发展严重失衡是一个长期累积的结果，不能指望这个调整能够在短时期内见效。美、欧、日国家救市及其见效，要有一个较长的时间表。因此，国际货币基金组织(IMF)估计，全球经济要到2009年末才开始复苏。Since non-balance of world economic development is a result of long term cumulative,it is not possible to adjust to New Balance at short te

8、rm.Especially,there will be a long term for US,Europe and Japan to see the effect of their fiscal policies.Hence,IMF estimated that global economy shall begin to recover by end of 2009.一、一、2009年铁合金行业面临全球经济衰退、市场需求萎缩年铁合金行业面临全球经济衰退、市场需求萎缩Ferroalloy Industry Sees Market Shrinkage amid Global Economic Re

9、cession 2、世界金融危机对我国经济的影响正日益显现、世界金融危机对我国经济的影响正日益显现 2.Global Financial Crisis Impact on China Economy 金融危机对于我国实体经济的负面影响，主要是外部环境收紧使得我国出口遭受重大冲击。虽然国家出台了总额4万亿元的庞大投资计划，推出了进一步扩大内需、促进经济增长的十项措施，出台了钢铁等九个行业的产业调整和振兴规划，但是我国扩大内需的政策措施陆续出台和产生效果也要有一个过程。目前，我国经济增长大幅减缓，对国内钢铁消费有较大影响的房地产、汽车市场等下滑态势尚未出现转机。正如温家宝总理政府工作报告中指出的那

10、样，2009年是进入新世纪以来我国经济发展最为困难的一年。The global financial crisis on Chinese virtual economy has mainly impacted on export.Chinese government bolstered the economy with huge investment of a RMB4 trillion($585 billion)stimulus package,adopted ten measures to expand domestic demand and promote economic growth,

11、but it still needs a certain period to take effect.At present,Chinese economic growth has been slowing down sharply,and domestic real estate and auto markets which could exerted great impact on steel consumption have not turned up yet.As Premier Wen Jiabao predicted in Government Work Report,2009 wi

12、ll be the toughest year since 2000.一、一、2009年铁合金行业面临全球经济衰退、市场需求萎缩年铁合金行业面临全球经济衰退、市场需求萎缩Ferroalloy Industry Sees Market Shrinkage amid Global Economic Recession 3、国内外铁合金市场需求增长乏力、国内外铁合金市场需求增长乏力3.A Slowdown in Demand Growth of Ferroalloy Market 据有关信息报导，2月份麦格里投资公司预测2009年全球粗钢产量将下降为12.2亿吨，与以前预测相比下调了19.1。汇丰银

13、行最近发表研究报告指出，2009年全球粗钢产量同比将下降7.2，其中，中国粗钢产量将减产3.4。国际市场进一步萎缩，贸易保护主义抬头，我国铁合金出口将受到严重影响。The Macquarie Group in February slashed its crude steel production forecast by 19.1%to 1.22 billion tons for 2009,according to market sources.World crude steel production will drop by 7.2%year on year in 2009,HSBC said

14、 in a recent report,adding that Chinas crude steel production will reduce by 3.4%.Chinas ferroalloy exports will be severely affected because of descending international market as well as rising trade protectionism.据中国钢铁工业协会预测，鉴于2009年国内外钢材市场不确定因素较多，初步分析认为，按国内外市场需求和保持钢铁产品合理价位，实现行业扭亏为盈，Given volatile

15、steel market in China and elsewhere,CISA predicted that China aims to produce 460 million tons,480 million tons or 500 million tons of steel in 2009 taking account of world demand,一、一、2009年铁合金行业面临全球经济衰退、市场需求萎缩年铁合金行业面临全球经济衰退、市场需求萎缩Ferroalloy Industry Sees Market Shrinkage amid Global Economic Recessi

16、on 综合各种因素考虑，2009年我国钢产量的预期目标为4.6亿吨、4.8亿吨和5亿吨左右，乐观的预测与2008年持平或有所增长，悲观的预测比2008年减少8左右。reasonable steel prices and profitability.The optimistic anticipation is almost the same as or slightly higher than 2008s level,while the pessimistic is 8%lower than 2008s level.据有关信息报导，2008年世界不绣钢产量2591.3万吨，同比减少6.9。其中，

17、我国不锈钢产量694.3万吨，同比减少3.6，这是我国不锈钢产量首次负增长，预计2009年不锈钢产量可能还会出现负增长。World stainless steel production fell by 6.9%year on year to 25.913 million tons in 2008.Of the total,Chinas stainless steel production slipped by 3.6%to 6.943 million ton,the first reduction in the history.Further,stainless steel productio

18、n in China is expected to lessen in 2009.据有关信息报导，国际镁协副总裁雷戈-帕切尔预测，2010年年中才会再次迎来镁行业消费复苏期，2009年的情况不容乐观。2008年我国金属镁产量55.8万吨，The magnesium industry will not see a revival until mid-year 2009 and the conditions this year are unoptimistic,said the International Magnesium Association vice president.Chinas me

19、tal magnesium production was down by 15.37%to 558,000 tons in 2008,accounting for 80%of the world production.一、一、2009年铁合金行业面临全球经济衰退、市场需求萎缩年铁合金行业面临全球经济衰退、市场需求萎缩Ferroalloy Industry Sees Market Shrinkage amid Global Economic Recession 同比减少15.37，产量占全球总产量80；出口39.64万吨，世界第一；国内消费15.8万吨，仅次于美国。预计2009年我国金属镁的产量

20、将继续减少，以及其他有色、化工、机械铸造、电子等行业都难以增长，对铁合金的市场需求将会明显减弱。China ranked first with magnesium metal exports totaled 396,400 tons.China domestically consumed 158,000 tons of magnesium metal only second to United State.Chinas magnesium metal production is expected to continue downside this year.Alike,other indust

21、ries such as non-ferrous metal,chemical,mechanical machinery,electronics sectors are also hard to grow,which will greatly dampen demand for ferroalloy.二、企业减产、停产，铁合金产量难以增长二、企业减产、停产，铁合金产量难以增长Ferroalloy Production Hard to Rise on Production Cuts or Halts 据国家统计局快报，2009年1-2月全国铁合金产量234.47万吨，同比减少8。其中，内蒙古、宁

22、夏、甘肃、陕西等西部铁合金主产省区都大幅减产。贵州、四川、重庆、湖南等南方省区有较大蝠度增产，其主要原因，一是这些省区2008年1-2月因雨雪冰冻影响产量基数相应较低；二是2009年1、2月份受国家出台拉动内需的政策影响，我国钢铁生产对铁合金需求有所回升，特别是螺纹钢、线材生产增长较快，对这些省区锰系铁合金生产拉动较大。Chinas ferroalloy production dipped by 8%to 2.3447 million tons in January-February 2009,according to preliminary report by National Bureau

23、 of Statistics of China.Of the total,ferroalloy producers in Inner Mongolia,Ningxia,Gansu and Shaanxi,the major western ferroalloy producing regions,almost flagged cutbacks in production.Producers in Guizhou,Sichuan,Chongqing and Hunan provinces boosted production instead for a host of reasons inclu

24、ding:a)The production base was relatively low because of snow storm and freeze calamity in January-February 2008;b)Demand for ferroalloy picked up a little thanks to stimulus package announced by the government in January-February 2009.Especially,fast growth in production of rebar and wire word shar

25、ply drove up production of Mn alloys in the above-mentioned regions.二、企业减产、停产，铁合金产量难以增长二、企业减产、停产，铁合金产量难以增长 Ferroalloy Production Hard to Rise on Production Cuts or Halts 表表2-1 2009年年1-2月全国铁合金产量单位：万吨、月全国铁合金产量单位：万吨、Table 2-1 Chinas Ferroalloy Output in Jan-Feb 2009 Units:10,000 tons;%省市区省市区Province产产

26、量量Output同同 比比YoY Change%省市区省市区Province产产 量量Output同同 比比YoY Change%省市区省市区Province产产 量量Output同同 比比YoY Change%内蒙古内蒙古Inner Mongolia36.8536.85-25-25广广 西西Guangxi25.0625.06-9.9-9.9四四 川川Sichuan24.7424.744747贵贵 州州Guizhou24.0724.07157.2157.2湖湖 南南Hunan21.0421.0433.233.2河河 南南Henan15.8215.82-13.3-13.3山山 西西Shanxi1

27、1.8311.83-33.5-33.5辽辽 宁宁Liaoning8.68.6-18.6-18.6青青 海海Qinghai8.088.08-8.3-8.3江江 苏苏Jiangsu7.787.787.57.5甘甘 肃肃Gansu7.727.72-45.8-45.8云云 南南Yunnan7.487.480.80.8吉吉 林林Jilin7.357.35-24.1-24.1山山 东东Shandong6.686.6825.125.1宁宁 夏夏Ningxia5.885.88-64.7-64.7重重 庆庆Chongqing4.024.0234.634.6湖湖 北北Hubei2.692.690.70.7浙浙 江

28、江Zhejiang2.242.24-26.6-26.6陕陕 西西Shaanxi1.971.97-48-48河河 北北Hebei1.561.56-43.3-43.3福福 建建Fujian1.31.37.47.4新新 疆疆Xinjiang0.680.68-67.1-67.1 江江 西西Jiangxi0.590.59-34.4-34.4黑龙江黑龙江Heilongjiang0.20.2-37.5-37.5北北 京京Beijing0.180.1838.538.5天天 津津Tianjin0.050.05-16.7-16.7安安 徽徽Anhui0.010.01 广广 东东Guangdong0.010.01-

29、66.7-66.7 总总 计计Total234.47234.47-8-8二、企业减产、停产，铁合金产量难以增长二、企业减产、停产，铁合金产量难以增长 Ferroalloy Production Hard to Rise on Production Cuts or Halts 但是，2月下旬以来钢材价格连续下跌，上游行业的最终需求并没有真正拉动起来，不少企业再次减产、停产，铁合金产量又继续减少。However,steel prices have been declining since February,contributing to the weak demand for the upstre

30、am products.Thus,many ferroalloy producers start to cut production or even stop production again,resulting in the reduced ferroalloy output.2009年国家对铁合金行业继续实行产业结构调整政策。2月底国家发改委等三部委发布关于清理优惠电价有关问题的通知，要求凡是以发电、用电企业双边交易等名义，擅自降低发电企业上网电价或用电企业销售电价，对高耗能企业实行优惠电价措施的，3月15日前应全面停止执行，并将自查自纠情况于3月底前上报国家发改委和国家电监会。China

31、 will conduct continuously structure adjustment of ferroalloy industry in 2009.According to the National Development and Reform Commission,local governments should totally stop the preferential power price before Mar.15 and stated the results before the end of March.二、企业减产、停产，铁合金产量难以增长二、企业减产、停产，铁合金产

32、量难以增长 Ferroalloy Production Hard to Rise on Production Cuts or Halts 预计2009年在国内外市场对铁合金的需求增长乏力，以及国家宏观政策取向影响之下，铁合金产量将继续阶段性上下波动，总体上难以大幅增长。It is anticipated that ferroalloy production will continue fluctuation in 2009 thanks to the weak demand at home and abroad and impact from domestic policy.三、铁合金进出口大

33、幅减少，进口量超过出口量三、铁合金进出口大幅减少，进口量超过出口量 Ferroalloy Exports Sharply Decline;Imports Exceed Exports 1、铁合金出口大幅减少、铁合金出口大幅减少1、Ferroalloy Exports Tumbled 据海关快报，2009年1-2月份我国铁合金出口13.20万吨，同比减少73。其中，硅铁(Si55)6.23万吨，同比减少70；硅锰2.49万吨，同比减少81；锰铁(C2)0.696万吨，同比减少66；铬铁(C4)1.87万吨，同比减少67。According to the data from China Custo

34、ms,China exported 132,000 tons of ferroalloy in the first two months of 2009,having decreased 73%y-o-y.Of the total,the exports of FeSi(Si55)reached 62,300 tons,down 70%y-o-y;SiMn 24,900 tons,down 81%y-o-y;FeMn(C2)6,960 tons,down 66%y-o-y;FeCr(C4)18,700 tons,down 67%y-o-y.三、铁合金进出口大幅减少，进口量超过出口量三、铁合金进

35、出口大幅减少，进口量超过出口量 Ferroalloy Exports Sharply Decline;Imports Exceed Exports 表表3-1 2009年年1-2月铁合金出口量月铁合金出口量 单位：万吨、单位：万吨、Table 3-1 Chinas Exports of Ferroalloy in Jan-Feb 2009 Units:10,000 tons;%品种品种ProductProduct锰铁锰铁C2C2FeMnFeMn C2%C2%锰铁锰铁C2 C2 硅铁硅铁Si55Si55FeSiFeSiSi55%Si55%硅铁硅铁Si55Si55FeSiFeSi Si Si 55

36、%55%硅锰合金硅锰合金SiMnSiMn铬铁铬铁C4C4FeCrFeCr C4%C4%铬铁铬铁C4C4FeCrFeCr C4%C4%硅铬合金硅铬合金SiCrSiCr数量数量QTYQTY0.6960.6960.44140.44146.22656.22650.21670.21672.49532.49531.87051.87050.55730.5573 同比同比MoMMoM Change%Change%-66-66-84-84-70-70-49-49-81-81-67-67-4-4 品种品种ProductProduct镍铁镍铁FeNiFeNi钼铁钼铁FeMoFeMo钨铁钨铁FeWFeW钛铁及硅钛钛铁

37、及硅钛FeTiFeTi and andSiTiSiTi钒铁钒铁7575FeVFeV V75%V75%钒铁钒铁7575FeVFeV V75%V2C2FeMnFeMn C2%C2%锰铁锰铁C2C2FeMnFeMn C2%C2%硅铁硅铁Si55Si55FeSiFeSi Si55%Si55%硅铁硅铁Si55Si55FeSiFeSi Si55%Si55%硅锰合金硅锰合金SiMnSiMn铬铁铬铁C4C4FeCrFeCr C4%C4%铬铁铬铁C4C4FeCrFeCr C4%C4%硅铬合金硅铬合金SiCrSiCr进口量进口量Import Import volume(tonvolume(ton)1616 271

38、271949949143481434818669218669242314231 同比同比YoYYoY Change Change%-45-45 -54-54101101236236-30-30-24-24 品种品种ProductProduct镍铁镍铁FeNiFeNi钼铁钼铁FeMoFeMo钨铁钨铁FeWFeW钒铁钒铁(V75(V75)FeV FeV V75 V75钒铁钒铁(V(V7575)FeVFeV V75%V75%铌铁铌铁FeNbFeNb其他其他OthersOthers合计合计TotalTotal进口量进口量Import Import volume(tonvolume(ton)287172

39、871794940.170.170.000060.000060.00050.000596296223272327238614238614同比同比YoYYoY Change Change%7272-14-14-65-65 -74-74-74-74-23-23三、铁合金进出口大幅减少，进口量超过出口量三、铁合金进出口大幅减少，进口量超过出口量 Ferroalloy Exports Sharply Decline;Imports Exceed Exports 表表3-3 2009年年1-2月硅锰合金进口国别月硅锰合金进口国别 Table 3-3 Chinas SiMn Imports by Coun

40、tries in Jan-Feb 2009 硅锰合金主要从哈萨克斯坦进口1.43万吨，同比增长236。在国内市场如此疲软的情况下，从哈萨克斯坦进口的数量及增幅都较大，值得引起关注。SiMn was mainly imported from Kazakstan,increasing by 236 per cent from a year ago to 14,300 tons,which needs our close attention.进口国家和地区进口国家和地区Import countries®ionsImport countries®ions哈萨克斯坦哈萨克斯坦Kazaksta

41、nKazakstan韩国韩国South Korea德国德国Germany进口量吨进口量吨)Import volume(ton)14311.95360.399 同同 比比()YoY Change%23629982三、铁合金进出口大幅减少，进口量超过出口量三、铁合金进出口大幅减少，进口量超过出口量 Ferroalloy Exports Sharply Decline;Imports Exceed Exports 表表3-4 2009年年1-2月铬铁月铬铁(C2)进口国别进口国别 Table 3-4 Chinas FeCr(C2)Imports By Countries in Jan-Feb 200

42、9 2009年1月份铁合金进口9.93万吨、出口6.73万吨，净进口3.2万吨；2月份进口13.93万吨、出口6.47万吨，净进口7.46万吨。连续2个月我国铁合金净进口，而且净进口量呈增长趋势。Chinas Jan ferroalloy imports totaled 99,300 tons in 2009 and exports were 67,300 tons,with net imports of 32,000 tons.In February,ferroalloy imports were 139,300 tons in China whereas the exports were

43、64,700 tons with net imports of 74,600 tons,showing the increasing net import volumes for two consecutive months.进口国家进口国家Import CountriesImport Countries哈萨克斯坦哈萨克斯坦KazakstanKazakstan印度印度 IndiaIndia南非南非South AfricaSouth Africa瑞典瑞典SwedenSweden德国德国GermanyGermany进口量进口量(吨吨)Import volume(ton)77206.261 6946

44、8.43439909.4338820同比同比()YoY Change%51767733三、铁合金进出口大幅减少，进口量超过出口量三、铁合金进出口大幅减少，进口量超过出口量 Ferroalloy Exports Sharply Decline;Imports Exceed Exports 预计2009年我国原来有竞争力的硅铁、锰铁、硅锰合金等主要品种出口大幅萎缩，而国外有竞争优势的高碳铬铁虽然进口有所减少，但是，从哈萨克斯坦、印度、南非的进口仍然大幅增长，我国将逐步成为铁合金净进口国，这种发展趋势令人担忧，我们要密切关注国外高碳铬铁、硅锰合金倾销的可能性，并做好反倾销准备，确保我国铁合金产业安全

45、。It is forecast that the main once-competitive products in China like FeSi,FeMn and SiMn will suffer the sharp decrease in export volume while the import volume of HC FeCr from Kazakstan,India and South Africa will continue increasing in 2009.As a result,more and more worries emerged that China woul

46、d gradually become a net importer of ferroalloy.Therefore,we should pay attention to the possibility that overseas HC FeCr and SiMn products would dump into Chinese market and prepare for anti-dumping move to ensure the safety in Chinas ferroalloy industry.四、进口锰矿、铬矿减少，不确定性、不稳定性增加四、进口锰矿、铬矿减少，不确定性、不稳定

47、性增加IV.Mn,Cr Imports Decrease;Uncertainties Rise 1、进口锰矿减少，价格大幅下跌、进口锰矿减少，价格大幅下跌 1.Swift Drops in Mn Import QTY&Price 据海关统计快报，2009年1月份全国进口锰矿33.45万吨，同比减少20；进口平均单价459.13美元/吨。2月份进口29.76万吨，同比减少55；进口平均单价205.98美元/吨。1-2月份累计进口63.21万吨，同比减少41；累计平均单价339.7美元/吨，同比下降0.6。2008年10月份以后全球锰矿交易几乎完全停滞了，这几个月我国进口锰矿主要是2008年9月份

48、以前签订的合同，因此进口价格显得偏高。According to preliminary statistics,China imported 334,500 tons of Mn ore in January 2009,down 20%year on year while the Mn ore imports in February totaled 297,600 tons with a 55%decline.The average import prices in these two months were US$459.13/tonne and US$205.98/tonne respect

49、ively.For the first two months of 2009,the accumulated Mn ore imports in China were 632,100 tons,down 41%from a year ago when the import prices averaged US$339.7/tonne,a 0.6%decline compared with the same period of last year.Since October 2008,the global trading of Mn ore has almost halted.Those Mn

50、ore imports of China were mainly contracts before last September and thus the import prices were relatively higher.四、进口锰矿、铬矿减少，不确定性、不稳定性增加四、进口锰矿、铬矿减少，不确定性、不稳定性增加IV.Mn,Cr Imports Decrease;Uncertainties Rise 面对中国市场需求降低的压力，世界各大锰矿主流供应商都未能及时出台2009年1季度对中国市场的进口锰矿报价。2月中旬BHP经过调整公布了2季度对中国锰矿市场的报价（CIF），在2008年的基