球能源行业发展趋势和问题及发展中国家定位概述.docx

1、12Yves Marthones presentation at the World Energy Forum 2018 (WEF2018)An overview of the trends and issues in the global energy sector and the positioning of some developing nations全球能源行业发展趋势和问题及发展中国家定位概述Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen,女士们先生们，早上好！My name is Yves Marthone. I am not an expert of the

2、 global energy sector but as an engineer and vice-president of an engineering company which embraces the renewable energy sector, I try to carefully follow the trends and issues affecting this sector with particular emphasis on the developing nations.我叫伊夫马索恩。我并不是全球能源行业的专家，但我在一家涉及新能源行业的工程公司担任工程师及副总裁。

3、我十分关注影响能源行业的各种趋势和问题，并尤为重视发展中国家的情况。 In fact, I start my engineering career in the energy sector, specifically in Nuclear Engineering at Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd, at a time when the nuclear energy was considered a valid contributor to satisfy the increasing demands in energy and a possible replacem

4、ent for oil and coal in the production of electricity. And even my path took me to other fields in my long engineering career I remain close if not very close to the energy sector. 其实，我的工程职业生涯正是开始于能源行业，具体来说，是从加拿大原子能公司的核能工程开始的。那时，人们认为核能可以有效满足日益增长的能源需求，并取代石油和煤发电。即便在后来漫长的工程职业生涯中，我的工作重心逐渐转移到了其他领域，但我仍然非常

5、关注能源行业。I am trying in my short presentation to make an overview of the major trends and issues affecting the global energy sector, while making a snapshot of the situation in the developing of countries especially in the Caribbean and Latin America.通过今天的演讲，我想向大家概述影响全球能源行业发展的主要趋势和问题，并简要介绍发展中国家，尤其是加勒比

6、海及拉丁美洲地区发展中国家的情况。Where are we from:我们从哪里开始：The shock of quadrupling the oil price in the seventies by the OPEP has awakened the industrialized world. After a few years of collaborative studies, the Workshop on Alternative Energy Strategies (WAES) published a well documented report entitled Energy: G

7、lobal Prospects 1985-2000. I am going so far back because some of the conclusions of this report are still considered as drivers in today energy trends. What were these conclusions in few words:上世纪七十年代，石油输出国组织将油价抬高了三倍，这一举动震惊了工业化国家。经过几年的合作研究，替代能源战略研讨会（WAES）发表了一份内容详实的报告，名为“能源：全球前景1985-2000”。我之所以将时间向前推

8、这么久，是因为这份报告中的一些结论仍被视为当今能源趋势的驱动力。简要来说，这份报告有如下结论：1) The supply of oil will fail to meet increasing demand before the year 2000, even if energy price rise 50% above current level in real time.1) 到2000年之前，石油的供应将无法满足日益增长的需求，即便立刻将现在的油价提高50%也依然如此。2) Demand for energy will continue to grow even if governmen

9、ts adopt vigorous policies to conserve energy. This growth must increasingly be satisfied by energy resources other than oil, which will be progressively reserved for uses that only oil can satisfy.2) 即便政府采取有力政策来节约能源，对于能源的需求也将持续增长。这种增长必须更多地由石油之外的能源来满足，而石油将逐步用于只能通过石油实现的用途。3) The combined growth of en

10、ergy demand requires that the energy resources be developed with the utmost vigor. The change from a world economy dominated by oil must start now.3) 能源需求的共同增长要求人们最大限度地发展能源资源。必须从现在就开始改变由石油主导的世界经济。4) Electricity from nuclear power is capable of making an important contribution to the global energy su

11、pply although worldwide acceptance of it on large scale has yet to be established.4) 虽然仍缺乏世界范围内的广泛认可，但核能能够为全球能源供应作出重要贡献。5) Coal has the potential to contribute substantially to future energy supplies. Coal reserves are abundant, but taking advantage of it requires other development programs.5) 煤炭资源有

12、潜力为未来的能源供应做出重大贡献。它的储量十分丰富，但要利用这一资源，需开展其他发展项目。6) Natural gas reserves are large enough to meet projected demand provided the incentives are sufficient to encourage the development of extensive and costly intercontinental gas transportation systems.6) 天然气的储量足够丰富，能满足预期的能源需求，但我们需要充足的奖励机制，鼓励发展规模巨大、造价高昂的洲

13、际天然气运输系统。7) Although the resource base of fossil fuels such as oil sands, heavy oil, and oil shale is very large, they are likely to supply only small amounts of energy before the year 2000.7) 虽然像油砂、重油、油页岩这样的化石燃料资源十分丰富，但是在2000年之前他们很可能只能供应少量能源。8) Other than hydroelectric power, renewable resources of

14、 energy e.g., solar, wind-power, wave-powerare unlikely to contribute significant quantities of additional energy. They are likely to become increasingly important in the 21st century.8) 除了水力发电外，能源中的可再生资源（如：太阳能、风能、潮汐能）都无法提供大量的额外能源。这些能源可能在21世纪会变得更加重要。9) Energy efficiency improvements can further redu

15、ce energy demand and narrow the prospective gaps between energy demand and supply.9) 提高能源效率能进一步减少能源需求，缩小未来可能出现的能源需求与供给差距。10) The critical interdependence of nations in the energy fields requires an unprecedented degree of international collaboration in the future. In addition it requires the will to

16、 mobilize finance, labor, research and ingenuity with a common purpose never before attained in time of peace; and it requires it now.10) 各国在能源行业相互依存，未来对于国际合作的需求将是前所未有的。此外，对促进资金、劳动力、研究及创造力流动的一致愿望也是和平时期从未有过的，而这都是现在就需要实现的。The todays global situation in brief:当今全球形势简述：So, what do we have now? Since the

17、 summer of 2014, the oil prices have not stabilized going from a historically relatively high price of above 100 dollar/barrel to plummet to less than half of that in 2017. The main trend behind this is reported to be the massive investments and increasing North American production from shale oil, g

18、as and tar sands. This investments where (were?) made in the expectation of continuous high oil prices and increasing global demand. We know now that the global demand is not increasing as fast as expected, partly due to the continuing global economic downturn, partly due to energy efficiency measur

19、es that are starting to affect global energy demand. Many of these shale oil and gas investments now turn out to be uneconomical. This has led to underinvestment in oil and gas exploration. 那么现在的情况如何？自2014年夏季以来，油价就不断波动，先是攀升至每桶超过100美元的历史较高水平，又骤跌到2017年的不到一半。据报道，这一状况主要是由大规模投资及北美不断增加的页岩油、天然气及油砂生产导致的。对油价

20、持续走高、全球需求不断增加的预期带来了大量的投资。现在我们知道全球需求的增长并不像我们所预计的那么快，部分原因是全球经济的持续下滑，另外提高能源效率的措施也开始影响全球能源需求。许多对于页岩油和天然气的投资都无法盈利。这导致了对石油与天然气勘探的投资不足。Climate change and climate change policy have an enormous effect on the energy sector. The climate change is real is not contested anymore, other than by some few radicals,

21、 when we considered the world enthusiasm on the agreement of the COP21 signed in Paris. Climate change policies in the other hand are being implemented in more and more big countries. These combined with the diversion from coal power plants (with a very high level of CO2 emissions per unit of energy

22、) in favor of natural gas power plants (with CO2 emissions being about 1/3rd of coal power plants). 气候变化与气候变化政策对能源行业有着巨大的影响。除了少数激进分子之外，人们不再怀疑气候变化的真实性，整个世界都十分重视在巴黎第21届联合国气候变化大会上签署的协定。另一方面，越来越多的大国开始实施气候变化政策，与减少燃煤发电站、推广天然气发电站相结合。燃煤发电站生产单位能量的碳排放极高，而天然气发电站只有其三分之一左右。Coal, even with its great potentialitie

23、s, has to gain its battle against environmentalists. That will require a lot of investments in technology. According to the International Energy Agency most clean energy technologies that are needed to get to the reduction of CO2-emissions required are not on track with regard to their implementatio

24、n and/or development. 虽然煤炭有着极大的发展潜力，但要想说服环保主义者，仍然需要大量技术投资。国际能源署表示要想达到减排目标只能依靠清洁能源技术，但大部分此类技术的实施和发展都没有走上正规。Nuclear power has its setback due to the fear of the population worldwide and its high cost of implementation.核能也存在一定缺陷，世界范围内都对核能存在恐惧，此外，核电站的造价也十分昂贵。Large hydroelectric powers are mainly availab

25、le in selected countries. There are still rooms for more development and inputs from hydropower but 只有部分国家有条件进行大规模水力发电，水电仍有很大的发展和投入空间。What is the pattern now (the figure below is taking from the Internet and is still valid): 现在的趋势（下图来源网络，仍具时效性）：（图表信息：Global Primary Energy Consumption全球主要能源消耗Oil, Gas

26、, Coal, Nuclear, Hydro, Wind/Solar, Bio石油，天然气，煤，核能，水能，风能/太阳能，生物能）These statistics are somewhat deceptive in a certain way. Energy consumption is still dominated by oil standing. In fact, fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas) amount for about 85% of the global consumption with oil standing at 33%, Gas: 24%,

27、Coal: 28%, while Nuclear contributes to only 4% and renewable resources contribute to only 10%. Taken separately from Hydro with its 7%, the other renewable energies such as geothermal, wind, solar and biomass account for only 3%. 从某种层面讲，这些数据具有欺骗性。能源消耗仍以石油为主，事实上，包括石油、煤、天然气在内的化石燃料占到全球能源消耗的85%左右，其中石油占

28、33%，天然气24%，煤28%。而核能仅贡献4%，可再生能源仅占10%。除去水电所占的7%之后，包括地热能、风能、太阳能和生物质能在内的其他可再生能源只占总量的3%。This is the global situation as we stand now. Although there is not yet a shortage of the oil production as predicted by the WAES report, steps are being taken to produce alternatives to oil in many aspects and in man

29、y countries even that requires large investments and long lead times.这就是我们现在所面临的全球形势。虽然目前还未出现WAES报告中所预测的石油供应短缺现象，但在许多国家的许多领域，人们已经开始采取措施生产石油替代能源，即便这需要大量投资和较长的交付周期。The situation for the developing nations:发展中国家现状：What is the situation for the developing nations (commonly referred to as third world cou

30、ntries), which do not have the capabilities and the resources like the big industrial nations?发展中国家（通常被称为第三世界国家）的现状如何？这些国家不具备大型工业国家拥有的实力与资源。Availability of energy is a critical issue for most of the developing countries. More than that, it is an absolute necessity for them, as a driver for their gro

31、wth and a contributor to social wellbeing. For small-island nations, which are of interest to me, there is a mixed blessing: the lack of conventional (fossil) energy resources is, in a way, compensated by an abundance of renewable energy sources. And, fortunately, new renewable technologies (especia

32、lly wind and solar) have undergone substantial technology learning effects on a global level, to the point that in some markets and market segment, it will play a major role in the near future. 对大多数发展中国家来说，能源的可用性是一个重要问题。此外，这也是他们促进发展和社会福祉的必经之路。我对小型岛国很感兴趣，这些国家的情况更为复杂，从某种角度来说，丰富的可再生能源弥补了传统（化石）能源的短缺。幸运的

33、是，新能源（尤其是风能、太阳能）技术在全球层面上产生了巨大的技术学习效应，在一些市场和市场分区中，新能源将很快成为主导力量。The trends now for many are to integrate as much as possible renewable energies in their energy mix. However, the questions of financing, accessibility, availability, quality, and cost remain the challenges to be dealt with, in order to r

34、each the goal of sufficient energy for household, institutional, commercial, and industrial needs. In the case of Haiti where my company is trying to make a difference, the difficulties include also an inadequate legal framework, an insufficient pool of technical personnel, political interference, s

35、ocial instability, meager capital resources, and insufficient fiscal incentives for investors. Moreover, there is not a policy to encourage local engineering and professional firms to develop expertise and to contribute in the energy sector. Everything remains in the hands of the government and larg

36、e international organisations.对许多国家来说，他们现在要尽可能提高可再生能源在能源组合中的占比。然而，要想满足家庭、机构、商业和工业需求，他们首先要解决能源融资、可得性、可用性、质量和成本的问题。我们公司一直尝试改善海地的状况，但我们面对着许多困难，包括法律框架欠缺、技术人员不足、政治干预、社会不稳定、资金匮乏、缺少对投资者的财政刺激等等。此外，没有一项政策能鼓励本土工程和专业公司培养专业人才，为能源行业做出贡献。政府和大型国际组织控制了一切。Some other countries, however, in the Caribbean and Central A

37、merica region have taken great initiatives with much success to be considered as models for others. To name a few (extracts from http:/):然而，加勒比和中美洲地区的一些国家却掌握主动权，取得了成功，为其他国家树立了榜样，下面介绍其中几个（节选自http:/）1. Costa Rica is on the road to become 100% renewable. It has generated 95% of its electricity from ren

38、ewable sources over the last four years. The country is ready to phase out of the use of fossil fuels altogether, as it has spent 1,197 days over the last few years, using renewable energy exclusively. Most of the countrys renewable energy comes for hydroelectric plants using mainly rivers followed

39、by geothermal. Wind and solar represent 11.11% of the total energy supply, and 0.73% from biomass. Costa Rica is now building a 97 KW solar project in a Free Zone one of the most important business regions of the country, as it has the characteristic of promoting innovation and investment through th

40、e provision of benefits and incentives from the Federal Government.1. 哥斯达黎加正朝着实现100%可再生的目标努力。过去四年中，该国95%的电力来自可再生能源，过去几年中有1197天单纯依靠可再生能源，它已经做好了彻底淘汰化石燃料的准备。哥斯达黎加大部分可再生能源来自水力发电站，主要建在河流上，第二大来源是地热能，而风能和太阳能占能源总供给的11.11%，生物质能占0.73%。哥斯达黎加正在自贸区建设一个97千瓦的太阳能项目，自贸区是该国最重要的商业中心之一，通过享受联邦政府提供的福利和奖励机制，大力推动了创新与投资。2.

41、F&S Solar concept, a German firm, has recently completed a 58 MW solar park in the Dominican Republic. The project, Montecristi, has PV 215,000 modules and it will generate 103,000 MWh which is enough to provide electricity to more than 50,000 homes. It is so far to be the largest operating solar fa

42、cility in the Caribbean region, and is the first of two plants scheduled to enter operation through a US$ 225M investment from the German company with the local government.2. 德国F&S太阳能概念公司最近在多米尼加共和国建成了一座58兆瓦的太阳能发电园区。该项目名为蒙特克里斯蒂（Montecristi），拥有21.5万个光伏模块，能生产10.3万兆瓦时电力，足以为5万多个家庭供电。这是目前在加勒比海地区运行的最大的太阳能电

43、站，也是该德国公司向当地政府投资2.25亿美元建造的两个发电厂中，首个计划投入运营的。3. Jamaica forecasts expansion and investment boom in the renewable sector. In addition to 100 megawatts of wind and solar power now in the system, the government has sealed a 64 million dollars investment for a new 51 MW solar park, Paradise Park project w

44、hich is majority owned by the French independent, Neoen, with MPC Caribbean Clean Energy Fund and Rekaminar (Rekamniar?) Frontier Ventures as shareholders. The Government claim also that it has saved a lot, to date, and reduced environmental emissions from the implementation of major programmes in e

45、nergy efficiency, conservation and management.3. 据预测，牙买加的可再生能源行业将出现扩张与投资热潮。除了现存的100兆瓦的风能与太阳能发电系统外，政府还注资6400万美元新建一座51兆瓦的太阳能发电园区。天堂公园项目由法国独立电力公司Neoen控股，其他股东包括MPC加勒比海清洁能源基金和Rekaminar前沿企业。政府表示迄今为止通过实施有关能源效率、保持和管理项目，显著节约、减少了环境排放的总量。4. In El Salvador, the government is requesting bids to total 20 MW from

46、solar energy and 8 MW from biogas as a part of an effort to renovate the national electric grid of the country, to make it more efficient and reliable and promote the use of renewable sources. According to AES Soluciones, an extra 12 MW of solar energy will be installed in El Salvador by the end of

47、2019. 4. 萨尔瓦多政府正在开展总计20兆瓦的太阳能项目和8兆瓦沼气项目的招标，作为翻新国家电网工作的一部分，提高电网效率和可靠度，并推广可再生能源的使用。AES解决方案（AES Soluciones）公司称截至2019年底，萨尔瓦多的太阳发电总量将增加12兆瓦。5. In Guatemala, Laboratories Farkot, a pharmaceutical company, has installed 377 solar panels in their production plant to provide a total of 120 KW. This project i

48、s expected to save US$ 20,000 yearly 35% of the total electrical costs.5. 危地马拉一家名为发科特实验室（Laboratories Farkot）的医药公司在生产厂房安装了377块太阳能电池板，总计能提供120兆瓦电力。这一项目预计每年可节省节2万美元，占总电力成本的35%的。6. The Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the association Solar He

49、ad of State to adopt solar rooftops for key government buildings across the region. The two entities have recently met in Jamaica to develop a regional strategy for photovoltaic power systems at government facilities for all members of the organization.6. 东加勒比国家组织（OECS）与太阳能国家元首组织（Solar Head of State）签署了谅解备忘录，为区域内主要的政府办公大楼安装太阳能屋顶。双方近期在牙买加举行会议，共同为所有成员国制定政府设施的光伏发电系统区域战略。7. Th