外汇经济风险管理课件.ppt

1、99eSbaPWhere a is the regression constant and e is the random error term with mean zero. The regression coefficient b measures the sensitivity of the dollar value of the assets (P) to the exchange rate, S. )Var(),Cov(SSPb Where Cov(P,S) is the covariance between the dollar value of the asset and the

2、 exchange rate, and Var(S) is the variance of the exchange rate.)Var(),Cov(SSPb 销售额(以1000英镑/台出售50,000台) 50,000,000可变成本(650英镑/台 50,000台) 32,500,000固定成本 4,000,000折旧额 1,000,000税前净利润 12,500,000所得税(税率为50) 6,250,000税后利润 6,250,000加回折旧 1,000,000以英镑计算的经营现金流 7,250,000以美元计算的经营现金流 11,600,000销售额（以1000英镑/台售出50,00

3、0台)50,000,000可变成本(696英镑/台,50,000台)34,800,000固定成本 4,000,000折旧额 1,000,000税前净利润10,200,000所得税(税率为50) 5,100,000税后利润 5,100,000加回折旧 1,000,000以英镑计算的经营现金流 6,100,000以美元计算的经营现金流 8,540,000销售额（以1143英镑/台售出50,000台)57,150,000可变成本(696英镑/台,50,000台)34,800,000固定成本 4,000,000折旧额 1,000,000税前净利润17,350,000所得税 8,675,000税后净利润

4、 8,675,000加回折旧 1,000,000以英镑计算的经营现金流 9,675,000以美元计算的经营现金流13,545,000销售额(以1080英镑/台售出40,000台)43,200,000可变成本(722英镑/台,40,000台)28,880,000固定成本 4,000,000折旧额 1,000,000税前净利润 9,320,000所得税(税率为50) 4,660,000税后利润 4,660,000加回折旧 1,000,000以英镑计算的经营现金流 5,660,000以美元计算的经营现金流 7,924,000变量基准情况情况1情况2情况3汇率（美元/英镑) 1.601.401.401

5、.40单位可变成本650696696722单位售价1000100011431080销售量(单位)50,00050,00050,00040,000年现金流7,250,0006,100,0009,675,0005,660,000年现金流11,600,0008,540,00013,545,0007,924,000四年期现值33,118,00024,382,00038,671,00022,623,000经营损益-8,736,0005,553,000-10,495,000nThe firms ability to adjust its markets, product mix, and sourcing

6、 in response to exchange rate changes.nSee exhibit 9.11 nThe market structure of inputs and products: how competitive or how monopolistic the markets facing the firm are.ne.g. Honda built North American factories in response to a strong yen, but later found itself importing more cars from Japan due to a weak yen.ne.g. Japan Air Lines hired foreign crews to remain competitive in international routes in the face of a strong yen, but later contemplated a reverse strategy in the face of a weak yen and rising domestic unemployment.