国际金融第八章课件.ppt

1、1Part II Macro Policies for Open EconomiesFocus on macroeconomic performance.8 How does the open macroeconomy work?9 Internal and external balance with fixed exchange rates10 Floating exchange rates and internal balance2macroeconomic performance （宏观经济运行） the behavior (变化) of a countrys output, jobs,

2、 and prices in the face of changing world conditions.4Framework of this chapter The performance of a national economy 一国经济的状况 Equilibrium GDP and spending multipliers 均衡GDP和支出乘数 Three markets 三个市场（产品、货币和外汇市场）5The performance of a national economyHow well is a countrys economy performing? We judge th

3、e performance of a national economy against two objectives. Internal balance and external balance. 6Internal Balance Full employment, or an acceptably low unemployment rate Price stability, or an acceptably low inflation rate 7 External balance Sustainable (能保持一定水平的) balance of payments with the res

4、t of the world Useful indicator: Official settlements balance approximately equal to zero (so that the country is not losing official international reserves or acquiring unwanted official international reserves)8 Our discussion here focus on the countrys current account. The goal here need not be a

5、zero balance.9A framework for macroeconomic analysis p164 Analysis on the behavior of the economy in the short run is relatively Keynesian（凯恩斯主义者） in that the price level is not immediately responsive to aggregate demand (AD) and supply. Analysis on the behavior of the economy in the longer run is m

6、ore classical(古典学派的) in that the price level does respond to demand and supply.10 Determinants of real GDP (representing both domestic product and national income)11Domestic production depends on aggregate demand A major performance goal of an economy is to achieve production of goods and services t

7、hat is close to the economys potential. The value of production of goods and services is the economys real GDP(Y); it is nearly the same thing as real national income.12 In the short run (and within the economys supply capabilities), domestic production is determined by aggregate demand: Y = AD = C

8、+ Id + G + (X - M) 国内产出（国民收入）总需求 消费国内投资政府支出净出口(X - M): Exports are the foreign demand for our goods; imports are already included in the other kinds of spending.13Y = AD = C + Id + G + (X - M) ENational spending on goods and services14ContdNational spending on goods and services:E=C+ Id + G C=C(Y) (

9、+)Id= Id(i) (- )G is treated as a political decision.15Trade depends on income p166M=M(Y), imports M are a positive function of Y.Marginal propensity to import (m): the amount by which our imports increase when our income goes up by one dollar. 边际进口倾向：每增加一元的收入所增加的进口量。X depends on income of foreign c

10、ountries.16Equilibrium GDP and spending multipliersEquilibrium GDPThe condition for equilibrium: real GDP=AD, AD = E + X -M, holding the interest rate constant,AD(Y) = E(Y) + X -M(Y), Therefore, the equilibrium condition is Y= AD(Y) = E(Y) + X -M(Y)17The spending multiplier in a small, open economy

11、The spending multiplier shows how equilibrium GDP responds to exogenous（外来的） changes in any component of aggregate demand. 支出乘数体现了均衡GDP是如何随总需求各组成部分的变化而变化的。 乘数是指由总支出变动引起的国民收入增加的倍数。18Suppose that the government raises its purchases of domestically produced goods and services by 10 units 10 units purch

12、ases10 extra income for whoever producesSpending part of the extra income to consumeExtra part income for whoever produces 19ContdWith each extra dollar of income, people will Save 20 cents marginal propensity to save (s) ? Spend 30 cents on imports marginal propensity to import (m)? Spend 50 cents

13、domestically marginal propensity to consume domestic product (1-s-m)?20 Both 20% saved and 30% imports in the extra income represent “leakages” from the domestic expenditure stream. In the second round of income and expenditures ,only 50% (1-20%-30%)will be passed on and divided up into further dome

14、stic spending.21 10 units purchases10 extra income for whoever producesSpending 5 units of the extra income to consume5 units income for whoever produces goods and service 2.5 units spending on domestic consumption22ContdThe spending multiplier in a small open economy is Y/ G = 1/(s + m) 国民收入的增量 / 政

15、府支出的增量 = 1/(边际储蓄倾向 + 边际进口倾向)Note: The multiplier is smaller in a small open economy than it in a comparable closed economy (in which m is zero) Exercise: Q4 p185 a, b23 a. The spending multiplier in this small open economy is about 1.82 (= 1/(0.15 + 0.4). If real spending initially declines by $2 bi

16、llion, then domestic product and income will decline by about $3.64 billion (= 1.82 $2 billion) b.If domestic product and income decline by $3.64 billion, then the countrys imports will decline by about $1.46 billion (= $3.64 billion 0.4).24 Foreign Spillovers（需求溢出） and Foreign-Income Repercussions国

17、外需求溢出和外国收入的影响 Foreign Spillovers Spillover:需求溢出 -因某种商品不足而引起对其他有关商品的需求 Spillover effect: 溢出效应，是指事物一个方面的发展带动了该事物其它方面的发展。如，一国总需求与国民收入增加对别国的影响。 25 If the country is not smallthe follow-on effects of these imports The effects can be important in two ways: -changes in production and income of a large coun

18、try have spillover effects on production and income in foreign countries. -the change in foreign incomes alter foreign purchases of the first countrys exports26 e.g. the U.S. accounts for about 21 percent of world production, and it accounts for 20 percent of world imports. The euro area has 16 perc

19、ent of world production and 17 percent of world imports.Figure 8.227Foreign-Income Repercussions p171 For a large country whose trade noticeably affects domestic production in other countries, foreign income repercussions increase the true spending multiplier. A change in this large countrys income

20、changes its imports, which changes foreign exports by enough to alter foreign production and income. 28Figure 8.3Foreign Trade and Income Repercussions29Contd This repercussions was evident in business cycles. e.g. the Great Depression of the 1930s The same interdependence of incomes persists today.

21、 When world economy is sluggish, increasing growth in big countries may be sufficient to raise world growth overall. 30 A more complete framework for analyzing a countrys macroeconomy in the short run requires that we are able to picture not only domestic product, income, and aggregate demand but al

22、so supply and demand of money and countrys overall balance of payment.31 A more complete framework: Three markets1. The domestic product market supply and demand for domestic goods and services.2. The money market supply and demand for money.3. The foreign exchange market supply and demand for forei

23、gn currency.32Figure 8.4Overview of Macromodel (Mundell-Fleming Model）The first two markets determine Y and i; Y and i impact the third market; exogenous forces affect these three markets.决定决定影响影响33 外生变量：外生变量：由模型以外的因素决定由模型以外的因素决定的已知变量，它是模型据以建立的外的已知变量，它是模型据以建立的外部条件。部条件。 内生变量：内生变量：该模型所要决定的变量该模型所要决定的变量

24、。它可在模型体系内得到说明。它可在模型体系内得到说明。34The domestic product market The aggregate demand for what our country produces depends not only on income (Y) but also interest rate (i). IS curve.35 两部门收入模型两部门收入模型 漏出：指居民户把一部分收入转化为储蓄。 注入：企业所得到的额外的投资。金融机构金融机构储蓄储蓄S投资投资I商品或劳务商品或劳务货币（消费货币（消费C）提供生产要素提供生产要素货币（工资或利息）货币（工资或利息）居

25、民户居民户企业企业36两部门经济中国民收入均衡的条件 AD=C+I=AS=C+S，即I=S。37Contd IS (investment-saving) curve shows all combinations of domestic product levels (Y) and interest rates (i) for which the domestic product market is in equilibrium. p173 IS曲线表示在产品市场上，投资等于储蓄（I=S）时利率和收入的各种组合的点的轨迹。 Domestic product market is in equili

26、brium when S(Y) = Id (i) +X-M(Y)+38Figure 8.5 IS Curve利率 = i 国内产出Y（国民收入）00.070.050.09CAB80100120ISWhy does the IS curve slope downward?Equilibrium point A. If i=0.05 , lower i induce more domestic investment, resulting in a higher level of domestic product. (Y=120) point B39IS曲线的移动 A change in any i

27、nfluence on aggregate demand other than interest rates results in a shift in the IS curve. i不变，而是总需求的其他因素发生变化时，会导致IS曲线的位移。 e.g. an increase in government spending? foreign demand for the countrys exports increases?40The money market Monetary policy determines money supply of a country. The demand fo

28、r money (L) is related to the (nominal) GDP and interest rates.Value of GDP = (PY)Opportunity cost to holding money (i)41 L = L (PY, i ) Equilibrium of money market is MS= L (PY, i ) 42ContdLM curve shows all combinations of production levels and interest rates for which the money market is in equil

29、ibrium.LM曲线表示在货币市场中，货币供给等于货币需求时收入与利率的各种组合的点的轨迹。 43Figure 8.6LM Curve44Why does LM curve slope upward? Equilibrium at point A. If interest rate is higher, say, at 0.09, people would hold less money but more bonds instead. To have the money market equilibrium at that higher interest rate, people would

30、 have to have some other reason to hold the same amount of money supply at point A. so the level of domestic product and income should be higher, raising their transactions demand for holding money.45LM曲线的移动 A change in the money supply or a change in an influence on money demand other than Y or i r

31、esults in a shift in the LM curve. Y或者i不变，而是货币供给或影响货币需求的因素发生变化时，会导致LM曲线的位移。 e.g. an increase in the nominal money supply by the central bank？ 46ContdIf the IS curve is added to LM curve.i0YLMIS0.050.070.0910080AFG12047The foreign exchange marketBalance-of-payments approach for this market.B = CA(Y)

32、+ KA (i)How do Y and i affect the countries balance of payments?1. Balance on goods and services trade depends negatively on our domestic product, through the demand for imports。2. International capital flows depends on interest rates.+(X-M)48FE curve The FE curve shows all combinations of Y and i t

33、hat result in a zero official settlements balance. FE曲线表示总差额为零时收入与利率的各种组合的点的轨迹。49Figure 8.7Interest rate = iDomestic product =Y0.030.070.11JAHFELMISsurplusdeficit0当国内产出和收入增加时，进口增加，经常账户差额恶化，但这种情况可随高利率吸引外资流入为来冲销。 因此，FE曲线向上倾斜。80100 12050FE曲线的移动A change in an influence on the current or capital accounts

34、 other than Y or i causes a shift in the FE curve. Y或者i不变，而是影响经常账户或资本账户的因素发生变化时，会导致FE曲线的位移。 e.g. an increase in foreign income increases demand for our exports FE curve shifts to right51Three markets togetherThe official settlements balance (B) is in surplus if the IS-LM intersection is to the left

35、of the FE curve.B is zero if the IS-LM intersection is on the FE curve.B is in deficit if the IS-LM intersection is to the right of the FE curve.52ContdThe way we use this framework depends on the type of exchange rate policy that the country has adopted. 53The price level does changeThe price level

36、 change over time. 1. Most countries have some amount of ongoing inflation.2. Strong or weak aggregate demand can put pressure on the countrys price level.3. Shocks occasionally can cause large changes in the price level even in the short run.54Trade also depends on price competitivenessThe countrys

37、 exports and imports depend on international price competitiveness, in addition to depending on national incomes. The price of foreign-produced traded products relative to the price of home-produced substitute products is (Pf e) / P.进口的外国产品与国内相似产品的价格比。55ContdConsumers decision on buying imports A bo

38、ttle of French wine is 10 euros.Imported into the U.S.e=$1.10/ euro$11.00 ( Pf e)A bottle of California wineP(Pf e)/P56ContdDemand for imports has two major determinants:M = M(Y, Pf e/P)The volume of imports if production and income and imports relative price +57ContdDemand for our exports has two m

39、ajor determinants:X = X (Yf , Pf e/P)The volume of exports if foreign production and income and the price of foreign substitute products +58Contd Our general indicator of international price competitiveness is the ratio (Pf e)/Pthe real exchange rate. A change in price competitiveness causes a change in net exports, so that both the IS and the FE curves shift. e.g. the increase in net exports?