投资学：Chap014.ppt

1、INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Copyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin CHAPTER 14 Bond Prices and Yields INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-2 Bonds are debt. Issuers are borrowers and holders are creditors. The indenture is the contract between t

2、he issuer and the bondholder. The indenture gives the coupon rate, maturity date, and par value. Bond Characteristics INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-3 Face or par value is typically $1000; this is the principal repaid at maturity. The coupon rate determines the interest payment. Interest is us

3、ually paid semiannually. The coupon rate can be zero. Interest payments are called “coupon payments”. Bond Characteristics INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-4 U.S. Treasury Bonds Bonds and notes may be purchased directly from the Treasury. Denomination can be as small as $100, but $1,000 is more

4、common. Bid price of 100:08 means 100 8/32 or $1002.50 Note maturity is 1-10 years Bond maturity is 10-30 years INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-5 Corporate Bonds Callable bonds can be repurchased before the maturity date. Convertible bonds can be exchanged for shares of the firms common stock.

5、Puttable bonds give the bondholder the option to retire or extend the bond. Floating rate bonds have an adjustable coupon rate INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-6 Preferred Stock Dividends are paid in perpetuity. Nonpayment of dividends does not mean bankruptcy. Preferred dividends are paid befor

6、e common. No tax break. Equity Fixed income INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-7 Innovation in the Bond Market Inverse Floaters Asset-Backed Bonds Catastrophe Bonds Indexed Bonds Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-8 Table 14.1 Principal and Interes

7、t Payments for a Treasury Inflation Protected Security INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-9 1(1)(1) T T Bt t ParValue C P r r PB =Price of the bond Ct = interest or coupon payments T = number of periods to maturity r = semi-annual discount rate or the semi-annual yield to maturity Bond Pricing INV

8、ESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-10 Price of a 30 year, 8% coupon bond. Market rate of interest is 10%. Example 14.2: Bond Pricing 60 60 1 05. 1 1000$ 05. 1 40$ Price t t 71.810$Price INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-11 Prices and yields (required rates of return) have an inverse relationship T

9、he bond price curve (Figure 14.3) is convex. The longer the maturity, the more sensitive the bonds price to changes in market interest rates. Bond Prices and Yields INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-12 Figure 14.3 The Inverse Relationship Between Bond Prices and Yields INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE,

10、MARCUS 14-13 Table 14.2 Bond Prices at Different Interest Rates INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-14 Yield to Maturity Interest rate that makes the present value of the bonds payments equal to its price is the YTM. Solve the bond formula for r 1(1)(1) T T t t B ParValue C P r r INVESTMENTS | BODI

11、E, KANE, MARCUS 14-15 Yield to Maturity Example )1 ( 1000 )1 ( $40 76.1276$ 60 60 1rrt t Suppose an 8% coupon, 30 year bond is selling for $1276.76. What is its average rate of return? r = 3% per half year Bond equivalent yield = 6% EAR = (1.03)2)-1=6.09% INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-16 YTM

12、vs. Current Yield YTM The YTM is the bonds internal rate of return. YTM is the interest rate that makes the present value of a bonds payments equal to its price. YTM assumes that all bond coupons can be reinvested at the YTM rate. Current Yield The current yield is the bonds annual coupon payment di

13、vided by the bond price. For bonds selling at a premium, coupon rate current yieldYTM. For discount bonds, relationships are reversed. INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-17 Yield to Call If interest rates fall, price of straight bond can rise considerably. The price of the callable bond is flat ov

14、er a range of low interest rates because the risk of repurchase or call is high. When interest rates are high, the risk of call is negligible and the values of the straight and the callable bond converge. INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-18 Figure 14.4 Bond Prices: Callable and Straight Debt INV

15、ESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-19 Realized Yield versus YTM Reinvestment Assumptions Holding Period Return Changes in rates affect returns Reinvestment of coupon payments Change in price of the bond INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-20 Figure 14.5 Growth of Invested Funds INVESTMENTS | BODIE,

16、KANE, MARCUS 14-21 Figure 14.6 Prices over Time of 30-Year Maturity, 6.5% Coupon Bonds INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-22 YTM vs. HPR YTM YTM is the average return if the bond is held to maturity. YTM depends on coupon rate, maturity, and par value. All of these are readily observable. HPR HPR

17、is the rate of return over a particular investment period. HPR depends on the bonds price at the end of the holding period, an unknown future value. HPR can only be forecasted. INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-23 Figure 14.7 The Price of a 30-Year Zero- Coupon Bond over Time INVESTMENTS | BODIE,

18、 KANE, MARCUS 14-24 Rating companies: Moodys Investor Service, Standard & Poors, Fitch Rating Categories Highest rating is AAA or Aaa Investment grade bonds are rated BBB or Baa and above Speculative grade/junk bonds have ratings below BBB or Baa. Default Risk and Bond Pricing INVESTMENTS | BODIE, K

19、ANE, MARCUS 14-25 Coverage ratios Leverage ratios Liquidity ratios Profitability ratios Cash flow to debt Factors Used by Rating Companies INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-26 Table 14.3 Financial Ratios and Default Risk by Rating Class, Long-Term Debt INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-27 Figu

20、re 14.9 Discriminant Analysis INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-28 Sinking funds a way to call bonds early Subordination of future debt restrict additional borrowing Dividend restrictions force firm to retain assets rather than paying them out to shareholders Collateral a particular asset bondhol

21、ders receive if the firm defaults Protection Against Default INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-29 Default Risk and Yield The risk structure of interest rates refers to the pattern of default premiums. There is a difference between the yield based on expected cash flows and yield based on promised

22、 cash flows. The difference between the expected YTM and the promised YTM is the default risk premium. INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-30 Figure 14.11 Yield Spreads INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-31 Credit Default Swaps A credit default swap (CDS) acts like an insurance policy on the defa

23、ult risk of a corporate bond or loan. CDS buyer pays annual premiums. CDS issuer agrees to buy the bond in a default or pay the difference between par and market values to the CDS buyer. INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-32 Credit Default Swaps Institutional bondholders, e.g. banks, used CDS to e

24、nhance creditworthiness of their loan portfolios, to manufacture AAA debt. CDS can also be used to speculate that bond prices will fall. This means there can be more CDS outstanding than there are bonds to insure! INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-33 Figure 14.12 Prices of Credit Default Swaps IN

25、VESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-34 Credit Risk and Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) Major mechanism to reallocate credit risk in the fixed-income markets Structured Investment Vehicle (SIV) often used to create the CDO Loans are pooled together and split into tranches with different levels of default risk. Mortgage-backed CDOs were an investment disaster in 2007 INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 14-35 Figure 14.13 Collateralized Debt Obligations