投资学：Chap001.ppt

1、INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS Copyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Chapter 1 The Investment Environment INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-2 Real Assets Versus Financial Assets Real Assets Determine the productive capacity and net income of th

2、e economy Examples: Land, buildings, machines, knowledge used to produce goods and services Financial Assets Claims on real assets INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-3 Financial Assets Three types: 1. Fixed income or debt 2. Common stock or equity 3. Derivative securities INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE,

3、 MARCUS 1-4 Fixed Income Payments fixed or determined by a formula Money market debt: short term, highly marketable, usually low credit risk Capital market debt: long term bonds, can be safe or risky INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-5 Common Stock and Derivatives Common Stock is equity or ownersh

4、ip in a corporation. Payments to stockholders are not fixed, but depend on the success of the firm Derivatives Value derives from prices of other securities, such as stocks and bonds Used to transfer risk INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-6 Financial Markets and the Economy Information Role: Capit

5、al flows to companies with best prospects Consumption Timing: Use securities to store wealth and transfer consumption to the future INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-7 Financial Markets and the Economy (Ctd.) Allocation of Risk: Investors can select securities consistent with their tastes for risk

6、 Separation of Ownership and Management: With stability comes agency problems INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-8 Financial Markets and the Economy (Ctd.) Corporate Governance and Corporate Ethics Accounting Scandals Examples Enron, Rite Aid, HealthSouth Auditors watchdogs of the firms Analyst Sca

7、ndals Arthur Andersen Sarbanes-Oxley Act Tighten the rules of corporate governance INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-9 The Investment Process Asset allocation Choice among broad asset classes Security selection Choice of which securities to hold within asset class Security analysis to value securi

8、ties and determine investment attractiveness INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-10 Markets are Competitive Risk-Return Trade-Off Efficient Markets Active Management Finding mispriced securities Timing the market INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-11 Markets are Competitive (Ctd.) Passive Managemen

9、t No attempt to find undervalued securities No attempt to time the market Holding a highly diversified portfolio INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-12 The Players Business Firms net borrowers Households net savers Governments can be both borrowers and savers INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-13 T

10、he Players (Ctd.) Financial Intermediaries: Pool and invest funds Investment Companies Banks Insurance companies Credit unions INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-14 Universal Bank Activities Investment Banking Underwrite new stock and bond issues Sell newly issued securities to public in the primar

11、y market Investors trade previously issued securities among themselves in the secondary markets Commercial Banking Take deposits and make loans INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-15 Financial Crisis of 2008 Antecedents of the Crisis: “The Great Moderation”: a time in which the U.S. had a stable eco

12、nomy with low interest rates and a tame business cycle with only mild recessions Historic boom in housing market INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-16 Figure 1.3 The Case-Shiller Index of U.S. Housing Prices INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-17 Changes in Housing Finance Old Way Local thrift inst

13、itution made mortgage loans to homeowners Thrifts major asset: a portfolio of long-term mortgage loans Thrifts main liability: deposits “Originate to hold” New Way Securitization: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bought mortgage loans and bundled them into large pools Mortgage-backed securities are tradab

14、le claims against the underlying mortgage pool “Originate to distribute” INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-18 Figure 1.4 Cash Flows in a Mortgage Pass-Through Security INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-19 Changes in Housing Finance (Ctd.) At first, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securitized conformi

15、ng mortgages, which were lower risk and properly documented. Later, private firms began securitizing nonconforming “subprime” loans with higher default risk. Little due diligence Placed higher default risk on investors Greater use of ARMs and “piggyback” loans INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-20

16、Mortgage Derivatives Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) Mortgage pool divided into slices or tranches to concentrate default risk Senior tranches: Lower risk, highest rating Junior tranches: High risk, low or junk rating INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-21 Mortgage Derivatives Problem: Rating

17、s were wrong! Risk was much higher than anticipated, even for the senior tranches INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-22 Why was Credit Risk Underestimated? No one expected the entire housing market to collapse all at once Geographic diversification did not reduce risk as much as anticipated Agency

18、problems with rating agencies Credit Default Swaps (CDS) did not reduce risk as anticipated INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-23 Credit Default Swap (CDS) A CDS is an insurance contract against the default of the borrower Investors bought sub-prime loans and used CDS to insure their safety INVESTM

19、ENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-24 Credit Default Swap (CDS) Some big swap issuers did not have enough capital to back their CDS when the market collapsed. Consequence: CDO insurance failed INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-25 Rise of Systemic Risk Systemic Risk: a potential breakdown of the financia

20、l system in which problems in one market spill over and disrupt others. One default may set off a chain of further defaults Waves of selling may occur in a downward spiral as asset prices drop Potential contagion from institution to institution, and from market to market INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, M

21、ARCUS 1-26 Rise of Systemic Risk (Ctd.) Banks had a mismatch between the maturity and liquidity of their assets and liabilities. Liabilities were short and liquid Assets were long and illiquid Constant need to refinance the asset portfolio Banks were very highly levered, giving them almost no margin

22、 of safety. INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-27 Rise of Systemic Risk (Ctd.) Investors relied too much on “credit enhancement” through structured products like CDS CDS traded mostly “over the counter”, so less transparent, no posted margin requirements Opaque linkages between financial instrument

23、s and institutions INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-28 The Shoe Drops 2000-2006: Sharp increase in housing prices caused many investors to believe that continually rising home prices would bail out poorly performing loans 2004: Interest rates began rising 2006: Home prices peaked INVESTMENTS | BO

24、DIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-29 The Shoe Drops 2007: Housing defaults and losses on mortgage-backed securities surged 2007: Bear Stearns announces trouble at its subprime mortgagerelated hedge funds INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-30 The Shoe Drops 2008: Troubled firms include Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, F

25、reddie Mac, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, and AIG Money market breaks down Credit markets freeze up Federal bailout to stabilize financial system INVESTMENTS | BODIE, KANE, MARCUS 1-31 Systemic Risk and the Real Economy Add liquidity to reduce insolvency risk and break a vicious circle of valuation risk/counterparty risk/liquidity risk Increase transparency of structured products like CDS contracts Change incentives to discourage excessive risk-taking and to reduce agency problems at rating agencies