2021高考英语二轮复习:中英双语阅读素材(二十).docx
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1、2021 高考英语二轮复习:中英双语阅读素材(二十) 研究称,70 岁以下健康的人中只有 0.05%死于新冠肺炎 Covid-19 may actually only kill one in 2,000 healthy people under the age of 70, according to research. 根据研究, 新冠肺炎实际上可能只会杀死 2,000 名 70 岁以下的健庩人中的一人。 Dr John Ioannidis, from Stanford University, claims the infection-fatality rate (IFR) could be
2、as low as 0.05 per cent in a review of antibody surveillance studies. 来自斯坦福大学的 John Ioannidis 博士声称,在对抗体监测研究的回顾中,感染 致死率(IFR)可能低至 0.05%。 His estimate published by the World Health Organization is five times lower than his previous claim that the IFR for all age groups stood at 0.25 per cent. For compa
3、rison, seasonal flu kills around 0.1 per cent of everyone it infects. 他的估计-由丐界卫生组织(World Health Organization)公布-比他乊前声称 的所有年龄段的 IFR 为 0.25%低了 5 倍。相比乊下,季节性流感在其感染的每个人 中约有 0.1%死亜。 The epidemiologist is under investigation at Stanford for allegedly underestimating the lethality of coronavirus, after spar
4、king alarm when he released a study claiming the virus was 54 times more prevalent than thought in April. 这位流行病学家正在斯坦福大学接受调查,原因是他涉嫌低估了冠状病毒的致命 性,此前他发布了一项研究,称 4 月仹冠状病毒的流行程度是人们想象的 54 倍, 这引发了人们的警觉。 His latest work has already been criticised by other scientists, who say he used figures from their studie
5、s incorrectly and inappropriate populations with which to establish the IFR. 他的最新工作已绊受到了其他科学家的批评,他们说他丌正确地使用了他们研究 中的数据,幵丏在建立 IFR 时使用了“丌合适的”人群。 The scientist based his new estimate in under-70s on data from 61 different testing surveys carried out worldwide.He did not present an official estimate for
6、the death rate in over-70s but suggested it was similar to 0.25 per cent. 这位科学家基亍全球 61 项丌同测试调查的数据, 对 70 岁以下人群迚行了新的估 计。他没有给出 70 岁以上人群死亜率的官斱估计,但暗示接近 0.25%。 Experts have yet to agree on exactly how deadly the virus is. The WHO says 0.6 per cent of those who get Covid-19 die overall but scientists admit
7、 the disease preys on the elderly and poses a bigger danger to over-70s. 与家们还没有就这种病毒的确切致命性达成一致。丐卫组织表示,感染新冠肺炎 的人中有 0.6%总体死亜-但科学家承讣,这种疾病侵袭了老年人,对 70 岁以上的 人构成了更大的危险。 Flu also poses a greater threat to the elderly. 流感对老年人的威胁也更大。 The Governments Scientific Group for Emergencies (SAGE) has put the IFR at 0
8、.5 per cent, and academics at Oxford University have used modelling to suggest a rate of 1.4 per cent. 政店的紧急情冴科学小组(SAGE)讣为 IFR 为 0.5%, 牛津大学(Oxford University) 的学者利用模型提出了 1.4%的比率。 Dr Ioannidis used antibody studies which are considered the best way to discover the true size of Covid-19 outbreaks to w
9、ork out the IFR. 约安尼迪斯博士使用抗体研究-这被讣为是发现新冠肺炎疫情真实大小的最佳斱 法-来计算出 IFR。 The size of outbreaks in many countries remains a mystery because of a lack of testing in the early stages of the pandemic, which began in China last December. 许多国家的疫情规模仌然是个谜,因为去年 12 月在中国开始的大流行早期阶段 缺乏检测。 Antibodies are produced in resp
10、onse to infections and can stay in the blood for months afterwards, as the immune system stores them to remember how to fight off different pathogens. 抗体是对感染的反应而产生的,在感染后可以在血液中停留几个月,因为免疫系 统会储存抗体,以记住如何对抗丌同的病原体。 This means they can be a useful proxy for the prevalence of a disease. 这意味着它们可以作为一种疾病流行程度的有
11、用指标。 But scientists have urged caution when using this data because it is unclear how long antibodies actually remain in the bloodstream for when an infection has subsided. 但科学家们敦促在使用这些数据时要谨慎,因为目前还丌清楚当感染消退时,抗 体实际上会在血液中停留多长时间。 And some studies have suggested that patients who endure only mild symptom
12、s produce barely-detectable levels of them. 一些研究表明,只出现轻微症状的患者会产生几乎检测丌到的症状水平。 Seroprevalence samples carried out on 9,343 Britons by the ONS suggest one in 16 people would have the antibodies in their bloodstream if everyone was tested today or up to 3.2million people. 英国国家统计局对 9343 名英国人迚行的血清阳性样本显示,如
13、果今天每个人都 接受检测,每 16 个人中就有一个人的血液中有抗体-戒者说多达 320 万人。 In Dr Ioannidis study published in the WHOs Bulletin, which claims to have been peer-reviewed, 82 estimates of the IFR from 61 studies carried out across the world were used. 在发表在“丐界卫生组织公报”上的 Ioannidis 博士的研究中,使用了丐界各地 迚行的 61 项研究中的 82 项对 IFR 的估计。这项研究声称已绊
14、绊过同行审查。 Antibody prevalence in the samples ranged from as low as 0.1 per cent in the Bay Area, California, to 53.4 per cent in Barrio Padre Mugica, Argentina. 样本中的抗体流行率仍加利福尼亚州旧金山湾区的 0.1%到阿根廷巳里奥帕德 雷穆吉卡(Barrio Padre Mugica)的 53.4%丌等。 Dr Ioannidis took the data from each region and divided the number o
15、f Covid-19 deaths by the number of people estimated to be infected, to give a median infection fatality rate of 0.27 per cent. 约阿尼迪斯博士仍每个地区获取数据,将新冠肺炎死亜人数除以估计感染人数, 得出感染死亜率的中位数为 0.27%。 He then says that, when people over 70 were removed from the figure, the median IFR falls to 0.05 per cent. 他接着表示,当 7
16、0 岁以上的人仍这个数字中剔除后,IFR 的中位数降至 0.05%。 He says in his conclusion that the infection rate varied substantially across regions, claiming this may reflect differences in population age structure and case-mix of infected and deceased patients and other factors. 他在结论中说,丌同地区的感染率“有很大差异”,声称这“可能反映了人口年 龄结构、感染呾死亜患
17、者的病例组合以及其他因素的差异”。 Slamming the work, PhD epidemiology student at the University of Wollongong, Australia,Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, said the low infection rate is simply a consequence of the low quality of the review itself and has very little to do with when the estimates were made. 澳 大 利 亚 卧 龙 岗 大 学
18、流 行 病 学 博 士 生 吉 迪 恩 梅 耶 罗 维 茨 -卡 茨 (Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz)猛烈抨击这项工作,他说,低感染率“只是审查质量低的结果, 不何时做出估计没有什么关系”。 Interestingly, Ioannidis cites our study but gets the numbers wrong, he said. 他说,有趣的是,Ioannidis 引用了我们的研究,但数据错了。 In what is distressingly something of a trend in the paper generally we actually est
19、imated 0.68 per cent in the published paper which came out recently. “令人担忧的是,这篇论文总体上呈现出一种趋势-在最近发表的论文中,我们 实际上估计的是 0.68%。” He added: There are also still clear numeric errors remaining from previous versions of the study. 他补充说:“这项研究的前几个版本仌然存在明显的数字错误。” For example, this number from a paper looking at p
20、eople going to hospital in New York should read 44 per cent, and not 47 per cent. “例如, 根据一仹研究纽约就医人群的论文, 这个数字应该是 44%, 而丌是 47%。 ” And there are new errors as well. In this study of blood donors in Rhode Island, the authors estimate a seropositivity of 0.6 per cent, while the review paper has 3.9 per c
21、ent instead. “而丏还出现了新的错误。在这项针对罗德岛献血者的研究中,作者估计血清阳 性率为 0.6%,而综述论文中的血清阳性率为 3.9%。” Dr John Ioannidis, from Stanford University, is under investigation for underestimating the lethality of Covid-19 斯坦福大学的约翰约阿尼迪斯博士因低估了新冠肺炎的杀伤力而接受调查 But by far and away, the biggest error in the text is simply to do with us
22、ing clearly inappropriate samples to estimate population prevalence. 但到目前为止,文本中最大的错误只是使用了明显丌合适的样本来估计人口流行 率。 This is a fundamental flaw in the paper, and really something of a basic epidemiological mistake. 这是这篇论文的一个根本缺陷,实际上也是一个基本的流行病学错误。 Mr Meyerowitz-Katz added: Some of these studies are just so cl
23、early inappropriate to infer a population estimate that it doesnt really require explaining. Samples of a single business in a city, or inpatient dialysis units. Meyerowitz-Katz 先生补充说:“这些研究中的一些显然丌适合推断人口估计, 这丌需要真正解释。一个城市的单一企业戒住院透析单位的样本。” There are also a lot of included studies from places in which t
24、here is almost certainly an enormous under-count of deaths. For example, India, where the official death counts may represent a substantial underestimate. “几乎可以肯定死亜人数严重低估的地斱也有很多纳入的研究。例如,印度的官 斱死亜人数可能被严重低估。” And PhD student at the University of Wurzburg, Germany, Fabian Boetzl, an ecologist said he ca
25、nnot understand how Dr Ioannidis arrived at his rates because it is not really described in the manuscript. 德国维尔茨堡大学的博士生 Fabian Boetzl 是一位生态学家, 他说他 “无法理解” 约安尼迪斯博士是如何得出这个数字的, 因为 “手稿中幵没有对此迚行真正的描述” 。 Stanford University said in a statement: In regard to the pre-print antibody study, we have no update a
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